Trump could do a "Nixon to China"

Americans are sick of war in the Middle East. Trump knows that.

Tulsi Gabbard

Call it "Peace with Honor" and get out.

There really isn't a "peace candidate" among the Democrats, except Tulsi Gabbard, who calls herself a soldier at heart. Everyone is talking about income distribution and race.

That creates a big opportunity for Trump to fracture and muddle the left, and win big.

First, a test for readers. 

Here is a map of the Middle East, marked by elevation, not political boundaries or cities.

Question 1: What country is north of Israel, and where is it? 

Question 2. Syria is there somewhere. Where is it? Are you sure?

Question 3: Afghanistan is on the map somewhere--or is it?  Where is Afghanistan? 

Question 4: They have a language in Afghanistan, of course. What is it? There is another one, too. What is that?

Question 5: Readers probably know that Saudi Arabia and Yemen are at war. Is Yemen on this map, and if so, where is it?  Readers know that religion is hugely important in the region. What religion is dominant in Yemen, Sunni or Shia?

Answers below the map.

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Here is a map with labels.





Lebanon is north of Israel. It is tiny. Syria is to the north and east on the lower elevations below Anatolia (i.e. the Turkish oval.) 

Yes, Afghanistan was on the map. They speak Dari, especially among the ethnic minorities and Pashto among the largest ethic group, the Pashtuns. 

Pakistan is the country divided by the map edge. Yemen is south of Saudi Arabia, next to Oman. Yemen is 56% Sunni, 42% Shia.

Nixon slogan

I would have mostly failed the test myself, and I have visited the region twice.

My point is that neither I, nor most Americans, know much about the Middle East, nor do we care anymore. 

Americans have one over-riding interest:  Get the heck out of that endless mess.

Why are Americans there at all? Interests drew us in:

We don't want criminal terrorists to have sanctuary in the region to plan and launch attacks like the one on 9-11, the original impetus for going to Afghanistan (although as we have seen, attacks can be planned anywhere.)

We don't want Israel to be obliterated by enemies (although we have seen that Israel can defend itself, and moreover, that they participate fully in the religious/political rivalries of the region.)

Vietnam era

We want the world to get the oil it depends on from that region (although it is Europe, not the US, that needs it, and Europe would be OK with it coming from Iran, and we aren't. Complicated.)

We want Iran not to have deliverable nuclear weapons (although Pakistan and Israel and North Korea already have them, and Iran is approximately as governmentally stable as they are.) Our tilt against Iran has as much to do with the interests of Saudi Arabia as with Iran, and the 9-11 attack came from Saudis--our customer and sort-of ally now-- not Iraqis (who we went to war against) or Iranians (who we now fear and blame.) Again, complicated.

Trump could do a Nixon-goes-to-China. Trump, other Republicans, and their media allies called Obama "feckless." Trump won election. Trump blustered and tweeted of devastation we would deliver, and the US exited the Iran Nuclear Deal. Trump and Republicans--and Israel--would criticize as a weak anyone else who did what only Trump now can do: 
Get out, and leave others to clean up the mess.

Republicans would go along because that is what they do now--go along with Trump. If Israel gives the OK, Trump is home free. 

Democrats would begrudgingly love it. A few hawks would criticize it, but Democrats, after Vietnam, remain the party of give-peace-a-chance. Most Democrats--most Americans--would be relieved. 

Circulating on leftist social media today

Nothing that goes wrong with the economy would matter anymore. Trump can blame a recession on Democrats, on China, on the Fed, on Obama. Trump would be the guy that brought the troops home. 

But what about the mess he will would leave behind? Won't he get blamed?  Yes, and the worse it is, the messier it looks on cable news, the happier Americans will be that we are out of there.