Bernie Sanders leads among college students

Young people will decide the nominee and the general election victor--if they show up.

Fully 30% of College Students choose Bernie Sanders. 

Sanders' support among college students will not be a surprise to readers. But the weekly poll of 1500 students by a college tracking company shows some trends:
     1. Bernie Sanders was an early favorite, and he has essentially maintained his support while other candidates have surged or fallen.

     2. Elizabeth Warren is gaining momentum and has support from 25% of college students, up from near zero.

     3. Joe Biden and Beto O'Rourke have dropped in support.

     4. Pete Buttigieg started strong with about 10% support, and has held but not grown it.

     5. Andrew Yang has grown from near zero to 10%.

     6. The other candidates are mired near zero with little trend.


Below: Sanders, Warren, then everyone else:

Click: https://www.chegg.com/press/college-election-tracker/

Young adults are the primary demographic for field staff for campaigns. They organize and recruit people in the early Iowa caucus and staff the field offices for canvasing, phone volunteers, and get out the vote in New Hampshire. They are the most active demographic on social media.

There are 4 million new 18-year-olds every year. This has the potential to change every election calculation.

There are 16 million new voters since 2016. Meanwhile, 2.8 million people die every year, mostly people over age 65. The 2016 election turned on fewer than 100,000 votes in three states. 

Young people support Democrats 2 to 1. Tufts University's Center for Information and Research has polled young voters since 1992. Young people had split approximately evenly between Democrats and Republicans, but in the Trump era the Democratic edge widened significantly. 

 Click: Tufts, historic margin

Historically, youth have punched well below their weight when it came to actual elections. In 2014 voters 18 to 29 turned out at only a 21% rate.

Click: Tufts--youth share in midterms

In 2018 the youth vote, defined as 18-29, surged to 36% turnout, the largest percentage increase of any group. Still, this is dwarfed by turnout among older voters, age 65+ who turned out at 66%, up from 59% in 2014.

The youngest Americans turn out the least. Nationally, the 18 and 19 year olds turned out at 23%, although in some states more than others. The lowest turnouts for those young voters are in the reddest states, with 13% turning out in Oklahoma and 15% in Idaho and West Virginia. Blue states with easy ballot access like Oregon had 33% turnout. Swing states varied: Minnesota had 37%, Michigan 28, Virginia 29, Pennsylvania only 22%.

Click: Interactive map

Youth in revolt against an intolerable status quo. Political activists write this blog to say a movement is underway, that young people are motivated, engaged, and very progressive. 

Active Facebook sites make an age-based argument for profound change, not "incrementalism" or centrism. Boomers, they say, had their turn, messed things up, and are comfortable with the pollution they caused, the debt they created, and the financial burdens they have put onto young people, with low wages, high cost of college, high cost of home ownership, and health care for seniors but not them.

They want Bernie Sanders, the first and authentic Socialist, who is fighting for the interests of young people and justice more generally.


The young have the potential power to decide the 2020 election. The general election will most likely be decided by people in swing states with margins that are a fraction of the number of young voters who are replacing old ones. 

The young skew Democratic. They skew "progressive." They could do this.

Historically, they haven't shown up. 2020 might be different.