Populism

The world is in a new era. 

When we were at the high point of the old era, we didn't realize it, but looking back we can see it.

Populist William Jennings Bryan

High tide in the old era of liberal, secular democracy: In the aftermath of 9-11 a Republican president said we were invaded by criminals, not by Islam, and that Islam was a religion of peace.  We elected Barrack Obama. NAFTA and the TPP were in place. America's trade links were growing with China. Turkey was requesting to join the EU. Theocracy in Iran and Saudi Arabia were considered outliers. The US Supreme Court says same sex marriage is an "equal protection" right. Free trade was assumed to lift all boats.

Now: Populism is on the rise, most often appearing as authoritarian ethno-nationalism. Turkey is rejecting secularism and becoming Muslim. India is becoming Hindu and overtly anti-Muslim. Fox cheers Trump for saying "Merry Christmas" as he overtly represents the traditional social order of white Christians as the default "real" Americans. Britain nearly split off Scotland and is leaving the EU. Parties that reject immigration are gaining strength in Western democracies. Trump unapologetically  ignores separation of powers norms including the Congressional power of the purse, and Congress goes along. 

What happened?

Liberal secular values of the Enlightenment--religious and cultural tolerance, rule of law, democracy--won big. Too big, too fast, for many people. The problem was brought to a head by immigration of ethnic outsiders into Europe and the US, Muslims into Europe, Latinix from Latin America into the US.

Bernie Sanders

In the US, the economy stopped providing access to the secure middle class--and they revolted. The Financial Crisis of 2008-09 brought to a head an economic problem in the US. Health care costs had been gobbling up all of the productivity and wage gains of the previous twenty years. Employment costs had in fact gone up--but employees saw none of it. Automation and offshoring meant middle class factory jobs were disappearing. 

Populist movements arose, rejecting the status quo. 

Right populism was presented and rejected when voiced by Pat Buchanan twenty years ago but now found a popular expression in the Tea Party and Trump. Right populism found a threat in foreign outsiders in trade and immigration. 

Left populism found expression in Bernie Sanders and now others. It rejects ethno-nationalism and authoritarianism, but it locates a different enemy, a system rigged for the benefit of "millionaires and billionaires" against the average American.

Klobuchar, in Sioux City, Iowa

Right populism is comfortable with executive rule breaking on behalf of "the people" for whom Trump governs. Left populism is comfortable with progressive wealth redistribution: Warren's 2% wealth tax; Andrew Yang's $1,000/month citizen dividend. 

Populism is winning, but is victory is not complete. Many GOP officeholders are still old school. Trump overwhelmed them in 2016 but they are still there. Mitt Romney is uncomfortable with Trump from a new, safe Senate seat. Paul Ryan is uncomfortable, from his place on the Fox Board of Directors. Republicans in government are uncomfortable, condemned as Deep State traitors by Trump, but they remain.

Joe Biden represents the Democratic old school, a now-injured spokesperson. Barrack Obama also represents it, but is off stage. Democrats have people on deck to replace him: Klobuchar, Booker, Bullock, Bennet, Buttigieg, O'Rourke. They have potential to split the difference between old and new, between old school liberal democracy and left populism because they are new faces, younger, and have not been locked into now-unacceptable positions by past votes. 

Booker, in Nashua, NH

If there is a middle ground, it comes from those second tier Democrats who are waiting for Biden to collapse.

There may not be middle ground. This may be an era of populism and populism only, right or left