Bad Bunny. America for Americans.

Trump's decision to trash-talk Bad Bunny was a foolish mistake.

"Foolish mistakes" are the ones that best teach us what is really going on.

I draw the analogy from biology and evolution, especially the peacock's improbably large tail. That tail flummoxed Charles Darwin for a while. 

The huge tail is cumbersome. It draws the attention of predators. One would think that in the competition for survival, peacocks with such a disadvantage would be bred out of existence. But the tails persist. There must be some value to the "mistake." That premise led to considering sexual selection as part of reproductive survival. Peahens are attracted to males with a big tail. The "mistake" clarifies what is really going on.

So, too, with Trump. 

Trump had every opportunity to nurture the constituent realignments of the political parties, with Hispanics voting for the GOP in increasing numbers. Democrats presumed that Hispanic voters would identify with their ethnicity and support mass immigration of Hispanics, whether legal or illegal. That was wrong. A great many Hispanic voters chose to vote like people who wanted laws enforced, including immigration laws. 

It would have made sense for Trump, upon learning that Bad Bunny would be the Super Bowl halftime show star, to embrace a show with a heavy Latin American vibe. It would have given nuance to his ICE policy of heavy-handed in-your-face policing. It would have sent a message that ICE enforcement was about illegality, not ethnicity. It would be reaching out to Hispanic citizens saying that they are fellow Americans, that he respected them -- but not the criminals hiding among them. 

Trump did not do that. 

Trump led a revolt against the halftime show. He posted on Truth Social after the show: 

The Super Bowl Halftime Show is absolutely terrible, one of the worst, EVER! It makes no sense, is an affront to the Greatness of America, and doesn't represent our standards of Success, Creativity, or Excellence. Nobody understands a word this guy is saying, and the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children that are watching from throughout the U.S.A., and all over the World. This "Show" is just a "slap in the face" to our Country, which is setting new standards and records every single day. . . .

Trump encouraged a competing halftime show conservative media defined as the "All American" alternative. That defines the Bad Bunny show as the un-American show. Trump defined the Bad Bunny show not as additive to American culture; it is an insult to it. Spanish is unintelligible. Its dance arrangements are "disgusting."

Political scientist and psychologist Jonathan Haidt uses the word disgust to describe one of the deep moral instincts of American political conservatives. It is moral and physical revulsion against defilement, a reaction to rotten meat, vermin, putrefaction, infection or invasion by an insidious outsider. Trump is communicating that Hispanic culture does not belong here. 

Trump is repeating the message he used to scold Europeans, that immigration by the wrong people is destroying the ethnic unity and identity of their countries. It resembles the message that kicked off Trump's campaign a dozen years ago, that Obama is illegitimate and foreign. He can never really be one of "us." Then in 2015, in Trump's campaign kickoff, immigrants from Mexico were other. Then Muslims. Then people from Central and South America. Then Africans and people from Caribbean islands, especially Haitians. And "low-IQ" Black Democrats. Get out. You are unwelcome. 

Trump is saying that Hispanics in the country, including Puerto Ricans who are U.S. citizens by birth, are "other," too, speaking Spanish and having a bad folkways. Maybe they are outsiders forever, as long as they are brown. Maybe they are "other" only until they learn to speak un-accented English and drop markers of Hispanic culture. The USA is a melting pot, so melt already. Become a real American.

Long term, I suspect the unnecessary insult to Latin culture is a mistake, but it may work for him for one or two more elections, especially if the Democratic message comes across as being against effective enforcement of immigration laws. Unregulated immigration from 2021 to 2023 branded Democrats as permissive to immigration scofflaws -- with parallel scenes in conservative media of blue-city homeless encampments and California shoplifters casually walking out while stealing just under $950 in goods. This is a brand problem for Democrats, and it will haunt Gavin Newsom as he attempts to campaign in middle America. Voters may be slow to give Democrats credibility as willing to enforce the law. Democrats can fix this, but they might not want to.

Trump is selling a simple, clear idea, even if it narrows the GOP base: Crime is caused by outsiders, and Trump has no respect for them. Fear them. Ridicule them. Disempower them.

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Easy Sunday: Trump really, really doesn't want to be booed.

Trump won't be at the Super Bowl today.

He doesn't want to be booed. 

"Boooooooo!"

Or perhaps the most effective chant would be an accusation Trump would try to deny:

"Pedophile! Pedophile! Pedophile!"

Donald Trump has a weak spot. He needs the adoration of crowds. 

Sparks, Nevada,  2015

Turning Point USA, 2024

There is a flip side to Trump's neediness. He is notoriously thin-skinned. 

My career as a financial advisor taught me that people perceive loss with about five times the intensity that they perceive gain. It works that way for narcissists seeking adoration. Trump would hate widespread jeers from a crowd.

A crowd at an AWE network wrestling match in Los Vegas this week broke out in a chant: "Fuck ICE, Fuck ICE, Fuck ICE." 

Click. Eleven seconds

This chant is a political "tell." It is one thing when ICE loses the support of urban liberals in coffee shops and bookstores. But ICE got jeers at a professional wrestling event.

The political left has a tool that I have not yet seen employed: chants at public events. It is non-violent. Chants are unlikely to get people killed. They strike at Trump's weakness, his desire for affirmation and his assertion that he is the legitimate representative of the American people. 

A chant arises organically. I regret that the chant most likely to emerge is one that echoes "Fuck Joe Biden" or "Fuck ICE," but I suspect that is inevitable and unstoppable. "Fuck Trump" fits a mood. I would prefer Democrats try something else.

 A chant of the word "Resign" or "Resign Now" combines disapproval and Trump's increasing physical and mental deterioration. "Resign" forces Trump to insist that he won't resign, but it puts his competence and impermanence on the table. As I have written, Trump seems "off." His billionaire backers surely see this.

There is an accusation built into a chant of "Pedophile! Pedophile." "Pedophile" overstates the hard evidence, but it has the same sneering power of Trump's very successful branding of "Sleepy Joe," "Lyin' Ted," "Shifty Schiff" and "Pocahontas."  

"Pedophile" is an accusation that demands a denial. 

The evidence you have of me being a pedophile is circumstantial, and my slow-walking release of the Epstein files does not imply I have something to hide. Your suspicions prove nothing! 

Democrats are winning when Trump is claiming reasonable doubt as a defense. 

Is it unfair to force Trump to deny an accusation? It is less unfair than Trump asserting that Barack Obama was lying about being born in Hawaii. At least Obama released his birth certificate; Trump's Justice Department redacts documents that reference Trump.

I cannot script the chant. It will arise organically. A small group of people will start booing and it will catch on, and somehow a chant will start. I hope it is something other than "F-Trump."

I suspect that chants and boos can become a new feature of Trump's public appearances, and it will change Trump's public brand from "Conquering Hero" into "Besieged Trump." Trump would appear weak. He can avoid chants but cannot stop them. 

Displays of Trump's loss of popular support might give Republican congressmen and senators the courage to begin to exercise the power of their offices.

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Extortion

     "I'm gonna' make him an offer he can't refuse."
          Mafia Don Vito Corleone, in "The Godfather", 1972

Trump has power and leverage. He is ruthless. He is squeezing money and tribute out of his enemies.

Republicans are OK with that. He was targeting Democrats and left-coded institutions.

Heads up to Republicans. Trump has wider ambitions. 

I have sympathy for Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos. He owns The Washington Post and he is dismantling it. Journalists and pundits and concerned citizens are piling on, expressing disapproval. What is the use of having $200 billion if you care about losing $100 million a year by owning an essential public good in a democracy?

He is under duress. Trump made him an offer he couldn't refuse. 

In his first term Trump threatened to raise Amazon's postal rates for package delivery. He warned that he would double, triple, even quadruple those rates, to punish him for owning The Post. Trump directed a $10 billion dollar defense contract for computer services away from Amazon as punishment. Trump is open about it. He will use the power of the federal government to destroy Amazon as leverage against the troublesome newspaper. In October of 2024 Bezos could see that Trump might return to office vowing "retribution." Bezos chose to be smart rather than noble. He pulled the planned Post editorial endorsing Harris.

Bezos is thinking about Amazon. Bezos is doing what every owner of a big enterprise is doing. He is obeying. 

Trump doesn't hide his extortion. Extortion works best if everyone sees it so they can fear it. Crucifixion and public hangings serve the same purpose. 

Friday's headlines:

CNN

Trump blocked congressionally-approved funding for work on a tunnel under the Hudson River. Crews are standing by. Trump insists two conditions be met: Dulles International Airport must be renamed the Donald J. Trump International Airport, and Penn Station must be renamed the Donald J. Trump Station. 

The Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal avoided a blunt headline but its news story reports the same extortion:

“Whatever DOT’s shifting official reasons, statements by the President and other officials tell the true story,” New York and New Jersey said in court papers. “DOT suspended project funding to punish New York officials for opposing unrelated Presidential demands.”

Trump administration officials told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D, N.Y.) in January that the funds would be released if he helped name New York’s Pennsylvania Station and Washington Dulles International Airport after President Trump. . . .

At some point Trump becomes an indefensible embarrassment to Republicans. U.S. Rep. Christopher Smith (R, NJ) and Senator Ted Cruz (R, TX) both said that funding should not be conditional on this renaming. However, some Republicans are on board with Trump, filing legislation to approve the name changes. Others want his face carved onto Mt. Rushmore.

Trump is inviting trouble with Republicans. He has gone further afield in his retribution. ABC, Disney, and CBS are "mainstream media" and therefore "in the arena."  Maybe they are fair game. This summer he sued The Wall Street Journal for $10 billion for reporting on the famous birthday card Trump allegedly sent to Jeffrey Epstein. There is a message there: You need to be fully aboard the Trump team.

This week he sued JPMorgan Chase for $5 billion for "reputational harm" to Trump when the bank cut business ties to the Trump organization in the aftermath of the January 6 coup attempt. JPMorgan is the country's largest bank; its CEO, Jamie Dimon, is the country's leading spokesperson for the financial industry. Dimon has taken care to present himself and the bank as outside and above politics, concerned about financial stability and economic prosperity, neither for nor against Trump. Dimon spoke generally favoring Fed independence, a consensus, anodyne position. But not to Trump.

This is a warning for Republicans. He isn't going after solely left-coded institutions like Harvard or law firms with the temerity to hire Democrats. Neutral is not good enough.

Independent voters tell pollsters that Trump is "going too far." Maybe suing JPMorgan is too far, coming on top of the Trump crypto grift, Trump putting his name to precede Kennedy's on the performing arts center, ICE's military-style policing, the proposed federal takeover of elections, and the raid on election offices in Georgia, a state run by Republicans. Maybe the speech at Davos and then the one at the National Prayer Breakfast went too far. He sounded "off." Something is wrong.

I can sense some Republicans who enable Trump doing a mental calculation. Maybe Trump is a liability. Maybe Vice President JD Vance would be a better president. Maybe Trump should go, sooner rather than later.

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Democratic candidates in Oregon's Second Congressional District

They aren't just candidates with an uphill battle.

They are content creators with an opportunity.

Democratic Candidates for Congress for Oregon's bright-red Second District

A political party isn't shaped by a central leadership. There is no "official voice" for Democrats. The Democratic National Committee put its heavy thumb on Democrats in the past decade, with disastrous results. They forbade a Democratic primary in the 2024 election, thereby letting Biden sleepwalk into the nomination and eventual disaster.

I get solicitation calls for money from the DNC approximately weekly. I tell the unfortunate callers to quit their jobs, that the DNC gaslit America by cosseting Biden. Then I hang up. The DNC doesn't represent the Democratic Party.

So who does speak for the Democratic Party? Anybody, but especially candidates for office, including the four women in the photograph above.

Political candidates are performers. People with the talent, insight, and luck might meet a certain moment in the culture. They catch on. Other performers get on the bandwagon. No central authority created the Southern California "beach" sound.The Beach Boys and Jan and Dean sang about a certain lifestyle and that genre became popular. The Beatles led what became "the British invasion."  Bob Dylan re-invented Woody Guthrie. There was no central authority, no musical DNC. Talented practitioners create brands. Bernie Sanders caught on and reshaped Democrats. Trump caught on and reshaped Republicans.

The Texas U.S. Senate primary pits two brands, and the success of one of them will get noticed and copied. 

Jasmine Crockett

Jasmine Crocket is a young, sassy, in-your-face confrontational voice, an AOC-type figure, saying things that pissed-off Democrats think. As a Democratic member of Congress, she creates viral moments in hearings. She doesn't talk about bridge-building. 

James Talarico, currently a Texas state representative, embodies earnestness. He is overtly Christian, talks about faith, and cites Biblical virtues. Clips of him shaming Texas Republicans by pointing out moral hypocrisy have made him a celebrity.

James Talarico

His "what would Jesus do?" arguments re-position the Democratic brand by recentering the moral basis of politics away from an urban secular-humanist perspective toward a religious one familiar to traditional church-goers. 

Voters will look them over and make choices. The betting site Kalshi gives Talerico a 1% chance of being the Democratic nominee for president. A $10 bet will pay off at $991 dollars. It could happen. Fifty years ago, in response to corruption in the Nixon administration, voters picked among the various Democratic candidates and chose an unknown Jimmy Carter, a former governor who taught Sunday School. For a while Democrats were the party of soft-spoken do-gooders, who turned down their thermostats and cared about human rights in foreign affairs.

Successful candidates define the brand.

Candidates for Congress in Oregon's Second District have nothing to lose by being bold and shedding old ideas and policies. The Democratic brand is unpopular.

The District

The partisan skew

A rural county in the district

There are districts in America where one might think, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." This isn't one of them.

These candidates are not stuck. They can slough off  Democratic brand baggage of unpopular ideas that persist out of inertia. The Democratic brand is currently shaped by people in bright blue urban districts. It doesn't have to be that way.

These candidates could push reset. They could fix what is broke, take the criticism -- because reformers always get it --  and make their case boldly anyway. People might credit their authenticity and courage.  Or not. In any case, they can define themselves by trying out policies that connect with this constituency, and on their own authority as a Democrat and a citizen, claim to be a legitimate voice of Democrats in 2026. 

Put it out there. Sell it.

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HA!

Trump hoist on his own petard.

"I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!"

        Donald Trump, November 7, 2020

Ashland attorney Conde Cox makes a modest proposal. What if Americans humor the deteriorating old man as he continues his monomania? 

For five years Trump has claimed that he won the 2020 election, often insisting that he won in a landslide. If only he were believed by the people who count and recount votes, and the election auditors, and the Republican secretaries of state, his Republican cybersecurity director, his Republican attorney general, and the multiple judges and appellate judges.  

What if we granted Trump his wish? 

Cox Cox is no stranger to finding quirks and loopholes in documents. He is a commercial and business disputes lawyer and an expert on businesses in trouble. He is the immediate past president of the Federal Bar Association — Oregon Chapter. He has been rated for many years as a Thomson-Reuters "Super Lawyer" in the field of business bankruptcy. 

Cox

Guest Post by Conde Cox 

For five years, Donald Trump has continuously cried out and complained that he won the 2020 election fair and square. He recently sent Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to Georgia in order to seize all 2020 ballot boxes to preserve the evidence he claims will show the fraud that cost him the 2020 election. In a speech given a few weeks ago in Davos, The Donald told the entire world that the 2020 election was “rigged” in favor of Joe Biden and that The Donald was the real winner!

Let’s just all tell him that we agree. You won in 2020, Donald. Happy now?

Here is the catch:

If The Donald is now agreed to have won in 2020, then he is also now constitutionally required to leave the White House immediately!

The 22d Amendment to the United States Constitution explicitly states:

“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”

THEREFORE, Trump was disqualified from being elected in 2024 because -- as he has claimed and we now agree --  prior to 2024 he was twice elected, in 2016 and in 2020.

This literally legally correct, yet outrageous conclusion, should actually apply in real life in the case of Donald Trump, because this is the same guy, after all, who incited a violent riot on January 6, 2021, when Congress was counting the states’ electoral votes. It was Trump's stated purpose to trigger the 12th Amendment, which kicks presidential voting to a one-vote-per-state process in the House of Representatives if disputes over the validity of electoral votes prevent one person from collecting a majority of the votes. That way, with one vote per state, the Republican nominee would win because there is a majority of Republican-led states, many of them with small populations. Hence, we got the violence of January 6. 

 Here is the text of the 12th Amendment:

. . . if no person have such majority [of electoral votes], then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote.

He wanted to override the voters' choice in 2020 using a quirk in the language of the Constitution. OK, Donald, two can play that game. 

My modest proposal is not so outrageous if you agree that Trump should be estopped from denying that he won in 2020. He cannot assert repeatedly that he won in 2020 and file legal pleadings in over 60 cases asserting the same, and then be allowed to withdraw that position. He is stuck with it. It does not matter that Donald was not sworn in on January 20. 2021, and it does not matter that he did not serve a second term starting on that date. The Constitution does not say that failure to serve as president means that that term does not count. The 22nd Amendment speaks to elections. You get only two. He got his two: 2016 and 2020.

Therefore, by the same kind of constitutional loophole that The Donald tried to use to stay in office after 2020, a quirk in constitutional language can be used to evict The Donald from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue right now. 

I hereby nominate Chief Justice John Roberts to serve the eviction writ.

Tomorrow: Back to the serious job of looking at how the Democratic Party can become a popular governing party.  Spoiler: Change won't come from the DNC.

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Denial will doom Democrats. Getting real will save them.

Yesterday's post brought this scoffing comment: 

Hilarious. The premise of "chaos" is a Republican talking point just like "woke". 

The "illegal alien problem" would be solved overnight with a few CEO prosecutions. Of course the economy would collapse, but at least you could shrug off the obvious racism, so much for that.

In the meantime Trump raids the Treasury and sets up himself and his kids as royalty, but never mind. "The Immigrants!!"

I love this comment mocking my post. So I am just succumbing to Republican talking points, and "illegal alien problem" belongs in scare quotes.  

It makes the point of why it is so hard for Democrats to get out of the rut that they are in.

Yes, they are in a rut.

I hear the resistance in some of my readers' minds. But Democrats are popular in cities! They came within a single percent of winning! If only Jill Stein had butted out! Trump is losing popularity! The midterms will be great!

I look at it differently. Democrats are competitive only because Republicans have attached themselves to a vile, openly dishonest, self-serving felon, who was convicted of sexual assault, who was overheard on tape bragging about grabbing women by the  p----- , who has something to hide as regards Epstein, who flouts every Christian virtue, who is holding businesses and law firms up to extortion for personal gain, who is openly defying Congress and the courts, and who incited a violent mob to attack the Capitol to overthrow an election.  And Democrats are almost, but not quite, competitive with that disgusting mess of a man and president. That is a very low achievement.

Trump is president and the House and Senate are Republican because voters in wide swaths of the country find Democrats so unacceptable that they prefer a tireless antagonist of Democrats. They deny and minimize Trump's bad behavior to do anything other than vote for a Democrat.

"Wow. That was harsh," I hear readers thinking. Aren't Democrats getting popular again?  Alas, no.

Real Clear Politics

Gallup

Voters find Democrats only about as acceptable as a corrupt, sex-offending, felon. Democrats are the ballgame because Trump may be even worse.

Republicans have a problem. They are stuck with Trump and with the deep stain that Trump has put onto their party. Sentor Lindsey Graham (R. SC) predicted the future in 2016. He said Trump campaigns "on xenophobia, race-baiting, religious bigotry – that cannot be Republican conservatism.” Trump will kill the Republican Party, he said, and "we'll deserve it."  Eventually Republican politicians and voters will try to wash their history and say that they had always opposed Trump. That will take a while.

Good news for Democrats, though. Democrats can fix what is wrong and do so promptly. As I began writing yesterday: 

---  Stop defending and minimizing a deeply flawed immigration policy that allowed nine million unregulated people to enter the country in indefinite legal limbo. But isn't immigration just a "Republican talking point," as the commenter said. Yes. It is a talking point because the vast majority of Americans, including people of Hispanic and Asian heritage, found Biden's approach objectionable. 

---  Stop defending the national Democratic Party. The DNC connived with the Biden campaign to forbid a competitive Democratic primary for president in 2024. They cosseted Biden and hid him from the public. That approach denied new spokespeople -- Klobuchar, Shapiro, Booker, Newsom and a dozen others -- a chance to reshape the Democratic message into a party of change, not one of geriatric status quo helplessness. Democratic candidates for federal office should speak the simple truth, that they are the Democratic Party, and they disown the national DNC. Democrats think it. Why not say it?

---  Stop defending the ACA and the status quo in healthcare as anything other than a work in progress toward something new and better. The current system is indefensible. It is massively expensive, it leaves some Americans without healthcare, and its insurance premiums are burdensome. It makes billionaires out of people who operate companies whose profits come from denying claims. The fact that some Americans consider Luigi Mangione, the alleged assassin of the UnitedHealthcare CEO, a folk hero, is both appalling and a heads up. It is politically safe to move on from Obamacare. Present a Medicare for All proposal and then sell it as better and cheaper.

---  Stop pushing identity essentialism. Trump has given Democrats an opportunity. Trump demonstrates that certain people -- his friends, people who pay him financial tribute, even criminals who act on his behalf -- get special treatment. People hate that, so let that be the Trump and Republican brand. The crony brand.  Americans like the idea of equality and fairness and everyone getting what they deserve by merit. Democrats bought into the idea that our country was so flawed in its history that the people and institutions that play the role of referees and gatekeepers need to evaluate everyone against a measure of presumed former disadvantage, and give them preference. It turns out that the vast majority of Americans think that is unfair, even people who are potentially the beneficiaries of it. Besides, everyone knows someone whose potential disadvantage is greater than theirs, so everyone is suspicious that a system of favoritism disadvantages them. Stop supporting identity favoritism. Now playing favorites is Trump's deal.

I expect some readers to disagree. I am suggesting that Democrats break free of group-think policy ruts. Some people will cling to familiar positions and consider change to be "backsliding" or compromising with the devil, or MAGA. No. it is getting real. It is getting back in sync with Americans.

It is time for a new generation of Democratic leaders and spokespeople to redefine what it means to be a "good Democrat."  Democrats are supposedly the party of "progress." Progress means change, change that will lead to electoral victories.

Meanwhile Republicans will be stuck trying to wash out the stain of having tolerated Trump. It will take time and it won't be easy.

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Can a Democrat ever win in a rural congressional district like Oregon's 2nd?

 Yes, Democrats can win in rural districts, like Oregon's Second Congressional District. 

But they must fix the parts of the Democratic brand that voters hate.

Yesterday I posted about a joint appearance by four Democratic candidates for Congress. I said I thought they all sounded alike, supporting standard-issue Democratic policy, saying things that would sound pretty normal for a national Democrat hoping to represent Portland, Berkeley, or Boston. I don't doubt that the candidates think that is unfair and wrong -- sorry -- but that is how it seemed to me.

Candidates for Congress from yesterday's post

I concluded yesterday's post with what I had hoped to hear:

There may be room for a red-district Democrat to surprise voters with a shift in the policies that reshape the Democratic brand. In a democracy there is no shame in supporting things that are popular, even if it changes the orthodoxy of a party brand.

The simple reality is that the Democratic brand is toxic in much of rural America. Understand that. Absorb that thought.

Rural area of my farm at Table Rock.  It gets even redder in more rural areas.

 Democrats are doomed to lose the Senate, and usually the Electoral College, if they are not competitive in rural areas. The Democrat does not need to become MAGA-lite, or become Trumpy, or become dog-whistle-racist. The Democrat does not need to start talking about bipartisanship or "crossing the aisle." They don't need to brand themselves as "purple."

In fact, sounding like a mushy compromiser makes things worse by communicating that the Democrat has no principles. At least in Oregon's Second District, the incumbent, Cliff Bentz, is a genuine, reliable toady for whatever Trump wants, even when it hurts his district. He is a bad U.S. representative, but he is rock-solid loyal to his master.

The Democrat needs to position herself as a reform Democrat. Democrats need reform so they can fix their brand. A reform Democrat is a real Democrat, one willing to face the truth about the party and risk being criticized for doing so. (Notice that Trump did exactly that with the GOP, daring to criticize the Bush dynasty in 2015.)  

Start with the immigration issue. Declare that Biden and Democrats messed up badly on immigration. Say it clearly. Admit that Democrats failed to enforce the laws and keep good public order and thus let immigration get out of hand. The Biden administration, with the tacit consent of Democrats in national office, allowed mass uncontrolled immigration by people who gamed the "amnesty" claim, having learned that the U.S. would allow them to remain in the country for years, maybe decades. People wanting to come here took the hint and came, about three million a year of them, a giant spike in immigration numbers. 

New York Times chart and headline

Fox image of Lukeville AZ border crossing, December 27, 2023

The system choked on the uncontrolled, un-assimilated masses of people here without resolved legal status. White nativist racists did not like this; that is a given. But neither did millions of other people, including fellow Hispanics and fellow Asians, citizen-voters who had to deal with the chaos. Democrats failed to act because they heard Trump's race-based dog whistles, and thought that represented the real animus for the public's discontent. Democrats reject racism, so they saw immigration as a matter of racism, not public order. A balance-tipping number of people felt that Democrats misunderstood them and insulted them by calling them racist. They wanted good order. They wanted laws obeyed.

There is something clarifying and cleansing about confession. Tell the simple truth: Democrats were wrong. That goes a long way toward a "reset" of a flawed brand. 

The candidate might say what President Obama said: that the laws should be enforced, people here illegally must go home and apply for entry. In a context of respect for the law, people with DOCA status may be able to stay lawfully, but there will be deportations, as there were while Obama was president. Democrats will fail with the public until they accept that. 

Having frankly endorsed a policy of law-abiding order, the candidate can then criticize Trump's police-state rough-justice policing strategy. Trump's tactics give a Democrat an opportunity to make immigration a winning issue.  

The Democratic brand will change when there are spokespeople and candidates advocating change, not mushy excuses for a failed status quo. The candidate should expect criticism from fellow Democrats. "You sound like Trump!!!" The Democratic candidate should welcome that criticism. It means people are paying attention. No need to say you are moderating or compromising, because you are not. You are re-defining good policy for good Democrats. You are not defending the indefensible; you are not stuck in a policy rut. Tell the critic who says you sound like Trump: 

No, I sound like a Democrat who wants our immigration system to work. We can do this the right way or we can do this Trump's way. Trump uses police state tactics. Trump attacks our Second Amendment rights. I sound like a real Democrat, because real Democrats and real Americans want our laws obeyed.

That is one issue.There are others. Reform is an opportunity to rethink what is not working. Policies that are so unpopular that the public chooses Donald Trump as the alternative are a sign that something must change.

The agents of change are the candidates for public office who proudly say they are Democrats and that they voice new defensible and popular policies. They can win the future because they shape it.

Tomorrow, another issue:  How to handle Obamacare.

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