Viktor Orban conceded defeat. Trump did not.

 It was headline news: 

Hungary's Prime Minister and autocratic model for Trump and MAGA promptly conceded defeat in the election yesterday.

Orban controls the military and the courts and the media. Why not do what Trump does and refuse to accept the vote?

The simple answer is that Orban lost in a landslide. Everyone could see what was happening. You can't steal a landslide loss.

There is also a structural reason. Orban is a prime minister, not a president. Orban was the undisputed strong-man autocrat in Hungary, but held that power as the leader of a party of members who won election in districts, and then they made Orban their party leader. Orban would have needed corrupt voting or vote counting at the level of district votes and then for those members to participate alongside Orban in the overthrow. 

Trump calculated that he needed only Vice President Pence and a compliant GOP Congress to refuse to acknowledge electoral votes in a few states with GOP majority legislatures. It nearly worked. It failed because the mental groundwork had not been done. Not counting certified votes in the states struck too many Americans as "cheating." One hundred forty-seven GOP congressmen (my own congressman, Cliff Bentz, among them) refused to accept electoral votes in only a single state, Pennsylvania. But in our federal system, some states, including Georgia and Arizona with GOP election officials, certified Biden's victory. The notion of a nationwide Democratic conspiracy to rig the election run under the nose of a Republican Attorney General who said that Biden won seemed too preposterous -- and too new a strategy -- for a Republican Congress to justify overturning the election for Trump.

Trump has since changed the moral framework on election reversal. He has insisted that elections are all crooked and rigged. Therefore it is fair -- necessary even -- for his team to use any pretext available to bring a favorable outcome. To disagree is to be a Republican In Name Only RINO turncoat. 

Hungary's democracy is stronger than is ours. A U.S. president with a well-disciplined party need only to claim election irregularities in a handful of heavily Democratic cities. Eliminate the votes in Fulton County, Georgia -- home of Atlanta -- and the state tips decidedly red. So, too with Detroit, Michigan's Wayne County; with Pennsylvania's Philadelphia County; Wisconsin's Milwaukee County; Chicago's Cook County; and Houston's Harris County. Even blue Oregon would be majority Republican if the votes of Portland's Multnomah County were excluded. Those cities have substantial Black and Hispanic populations, an easy target for Trump's accusations. 

The mechanism for refusing to count or certify votes is pretext. One need only accuse fraud and then at the critical time refuse to do what Orban did. Never concede, which means any result is by definition "disputed." Disputed results need not be certified by partisans. Republican voters are well prepared to believe, possibly even insist, that of course counties filled with Black and Hispanic voters are corrupt. 

February, 2016

Trump has been disputing vote counts going back 11 years to when he insisted fraud caused his loss to Ted Cruz.

To send ICE or other armed federal agents to close down election sites, Trump need only claim there is domestic or civil disturbance; it is his purview to make such a determination, even if it openly dishonest, like his claim that the U.S. was under armed invasion by an immigrant army. Trump need only claim he has evidence of secret foreign interference; that decision is his to make. GOP poll watchers need only claim that they saw suspicious activity -- maybe a suitcase sitting under a table -- and polls might be closed or voting made inaccessible or so slow that voters turn away discouraged by endless lines. 

Partisan election officials may refuse to carry out ministerial acts of accepting votes, throwing certification of elections into chaos. Republican officials who accepted the vote in 2020 have been excoriated by Trump and the local party, and have been removed and replaced by people who will do as instructed.

The U.S. is closely divided. I don't expect overwhelming landslides. In 2020, a Biden margin of seven million votes was not enough. Trump claims he won in a landslide. Fox News is backsliding on election denial; yesterday I saw Fox News' Jesse Watters laughingly say that he, too, thinks that Trump probably won in 2020. Republican voters are well-prepared to insist that the midterm elections cannot possibly be won by Democrats. The mechanism to achieve this result is readily at hand: don't let voters in Democratic strongholds vote, and if they vote, claim fraud and don't count the votes.

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Easy Sunday: backfire.

Backfire.

What a politician thinks is his message is not necessarily the audience's takeaway from that message.

I return to that theme repeatedly in my posts here. There are so many examples of it. 

Yesterday's post looked at the long rant by Trump where he complained about MAGA media turncoats. Trump's denoted message was that he is a victim of their stupidity. For most people, the real message is that Trump has become a cranky, whining, semi-demented old guy.

The classic instance of message-backfire was the comment by former Attorney General Pam Bondi amid pressure to explain why she was protecting Trump by withholding the Epstein files. She tried to change the subject to "the Dow is 50,000!" Those words are a punchline now. The received message is that the administration is desperately bringing up distractions to hide something dangerously embarrassing. 

Yesterday presented another instance. Amid all the serious problems in the world, Trump's Truth Social feed led off with this.

It denoted triumphant America. Look at this arch! Bigger than the one in France. America is great and I am the president!! 

Trump is making himself another trophy celebrating premature glory. The real takeaway is "Nero fiddles while Rome burns."  

Paul Krugman's Substack article this morning gave another iteration. Viktor Orban's Hungary is having its election today. Trump openly supports Orban, a strange intervention into the politics of another country. Trump dangled money support from the U.S. to Hungary, if only the voters chose Orban, a blatant example of public money being exchanged for political support. 

Krugman said Trump's support backfires on Orban. Of course it does. Trump is widely reviled in Europe. Trump is known for crony corruption and personal wealth-seeking, using the influence of his office. The big issue for Orban's opponent, Peter Magyar, is Orban's corrupt cronyism. Trump's endorsement doesn't help Orban. It proves Magyar's point.

I am alert to the problem of campaigns backfiring because, 46 years ago I was a primary beneficiary of the self-destruction of the campaign by my Republican opponent. I won as a Democrat amid the 1980 Reagan landslide. How was that possible? My opponent's own campaign sabotaged itself, thank goodness. I will tell the story in a future blog post.

Oh. One more thing:  The real message of Melania Trump's sudden, impromptu declaration that she is not a criminal is that she is in panic mode because some new hidden revelation is about to get exposed, perhaps by that angry former-model friend stuck in Brazil who knows too much and says she is going to tell all, and that Melania isn't waiting for her husband to protect himself or continue the coverup. He is on his own, and she isn't going down.

Total backfire

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Whack job.

Do Republican voters like what Trump is doing and saying?

They must be OK with it.

He has 81-percent approval from Republicans.

I am trying to understand why Republicans of good character tolerate Donald Trump. People who supported Reagan, Dole, two Bush presidents, McCain, and Romney now tolerate Trump who represents values and behavior opposite the people they voted for in the recent past. None of those Republican presidents and candidates would have engaged in the grift, the pardon transactions, the flouting of laws that Trump does openly and proudly. They would have understood it to be wrong, bad for the country and inconsistent with the dignity of the office. They had character. They had the internal controls one expects of people in positions of responsibility.

Trump's rants look strange and dangerous to me. It makes a mockery of his claim to be a "stable genius." Trump is acting like a whack job -- profoundly temperamentally unfit -- and it is getting worse.

The New York Times headline is only partially true. It says that Trump is responding to the criticism about the Iran war. His critics also publicly shared their worry about Trump's mental condition. They think that he has "lost it." 

I present this long Truth Social post to readers, and leave it for you to decide how you feel about the author. Do you trust his temperament and judgment? If he were your father, would you decide it is time to take his car keys away? Imagine you are a Republican congressman. You have the ability to meet with colleagues and arrange to replace the president. Remember, you have an option. JD Vance is in place to take over in the event of presidential incapacity. Does Trump sound like a reasonable man of sound judgment? Would you trust the author of this post to represent you in court? Would you hire this man to be CEO of a business you own? If you were on the board of a school district or public hospital or university, would you hire this man to be its leader and public face?

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God's gift to America

Governments want the legitimacy offered by Heaven. Religions like the protection of government. One hand washes the other.

But there is no state religion in the USA. It was a practical necessity from the beginning. There were Quakers in Pennsylvania; Roman Catholics in Maryland; Anglicans in South Carolina; Dutch Reformed in New York City. Moreover, the Puritan Calvinists in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island all disagreed with each other.

Church attendance has been in decline in the USA. The Heritage Foundation reports a sharp increase in people who never attend church, and a decline down to 22 percent of people who attend weekly.

Trends sometimes create counter-trends. We are seeing one. Pew reports:

Christian Nationalism is a Trump/Fox associated phenomenon. Nonpartisan pollster PRRI reports that 56 percent of Republicans qualify as Christian Nationalists. Only 25 percent of political independents and 17 percent of Democrats identify as such. There is a close association with media choices. PRRI reports that two-thirds of Americans who trust far-right news qualify as Christian Nationalists. Fifty-five percent of those who most trust Fox News say they are Christian Nationalists.

President Trump is marking his territory as leader of this countertrend. He is voicing a muscular warrior ethic. He made an audacious Easter post:

Some commentary describes this as an incautious act of frustration. I see craftsmanship. He is expressing Christian triumph, and his supporters value that. Jesus' turn-the-other-cheek piety is for losers. Trump represents pre-Christian values. He represents the tribe under siege by secularism. 

In the Iliad, Achilles and Hector fought to win glory. Trump seeks glory. Trump ends his post with a taunt -- poor, helpless Allah. There is a warning in the Iliad, if Trump is open to learning from it. After killing Hector, Achilles dragged his body around behind a chariot in front of Greek and Trojan soldiers. The gods were disgusted with Achilles, even the ones who favored the Greeks. Misfortune followed. Best not anger the gods.

The Iran war is a solidifying event for Christian Nationalism. We are allied with Israel against a Muslim country. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is establishing that the old values are for losers.

Speech, March 9, 2026: 

America regardless of what so-called international institutions say, is unleashing the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history. . . . No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy building exercise, no politically correct wars.

Public prayer, March 25, 2026:  

Let every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness and our great nation. Give them wisdom in every decision, endurance for the trial ahead, unbreakable unity, and overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.

Pope Leo offers a different version of Christianity. He said that God does not hear and answer prayers like this. 

Newsweek reported a meeting at the Pentagon between Trump officials and a papal envoy in January where the administration urged the Vatican to get on board Trump's foreign policy goals and methods. The meeting allegedly included a reference to the Avignon Papacy. Hey, Pope Leo, don't cross Trump. 

JD Vance is in Hungary to support Viktor Orban, an advocate of Christian Nationalism ideology and "democratic illiberalism," where Christianity is the cornerstone of national identity. Trump posted his unequivocal support for Orban.

Trump gets the majority vote of people who identify as Christian. Trump represents a borderland between rendering unto God and unto Caesar. It is common to see religious symbols on the iconography associated with Trump. He represents something that a significant number of American Christians seem to want: a fighting spokesperson for the faith, even if not of the faith. 

The long-term trend is toward cosmopolitan secularism. Christian Nationalism is backlash to that trend. Democrats are associated with the trend. Trump is riding and amplifying backlash to it.

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We have already lost the war with Iran.

Win the battle, lose the war.

Iran is better off than before.

The USA is worse off than before.

Trump's political situation deteriorated.

The purported goal of this war was to eliminate Iran's ability to threaten Israel and the world. Trump is under political pressure from Bibi Netanyahu and foreign policy hawks within the U.S. who assert that nothing but the elimination of Iran is sufficient. Iran could not be treated like North Korea, Russia, or China as rivals-with-militaries. Trump's orientation and brand identity is to oppose anything with the stamp of Barack Obama, including his Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Netanyahu's anti-Iran animus fit Trump's needs perfectly. The GOP became the yes-whatever-Israel-wants party. Democrats became the somewhat-Israel party. The battle lines were drawn. Against advice of caution within his administration, Trump followed Israel into this war.

Iran is stronger because of it.

--  Prior to the war, the U.S. had enforceable sanctions on Iran. As a result of the war, we have lifted the sanctions.

--  Prior to the war, Iran sold oil to the world at a price in the $60s per barrel. Now they sell oil at a far higher price -- and so does Russia.

--  Prior to the war, the world consensus position was that Iran must not get nuclear weapons. The ceasefire agreement gives Iran permission to enrich uranium.

--  Prior to the war, the Strait of Hormuz, in both law and practice, was an international waterway. It was uncertain whether Iran could block it. Now Iran has enforceable control of the strait, with the ability to block passage by disfavored countries and to charge a toll to ships that pass. Iran acquired a powerful weapon. 

--  Prior to the war, Iran was a very minor power. Now it shows its military is capable of defending Iran's ruling regime and can impose its will on faraway countries by shutting down the world's oil supply.

 --  Prior to the war, the U.S. was thought to be able to withstand an enemy's counterpunch. Now it is understood that the U.S. is so fragile that even a 25 percent rise in gasoline prices creates an untenable situation for its leader. America has a glass jaw.

--  Prior to the war, the U.S. was understood to have alliances and support from NATO countries. Now the world understands that the U.S. squandered that support.

--  Prior to the war Trump's led a nearly-unanimous GOP/MAGA coalition.  Now Trump is experiencing public opposition from some in that coalitipion. Usually reliable senators like Ron Johnson (R-WI) are speaking out. 

-- Prior to the war, the there was a lingering notion in the political zeitgeist that Israel's interests and U.S. interests were parallel. It was voiced aggressively by the GOP. It was done with reservations by President Joe Biden, for which he got a mixture of support and opposition. That notion has deteriorated in both parties. The antisemitic/anti-Israel undercurrent within the GOP is getting traction among mainstream voices.

Pro-Palestinian protesters disrupted and heckled Senator Ron Wyden's (D-OR) town hall in Medford last week. Wyden criticized Netanyahu and assured the audience that he had just introduced legislation that was strongly opposed by AIPAC, the pro-Israel advocacy organization. 

--  Prior to the war the United States was strengthening its relationships with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf oil states, which created a potential basis for a balance-of-power Muslim coalition to contain Iran. The relationship was premised on the U.S.'s ability to provide security to those countries. Now we see that Iran can and will bomb Gulf states' oil infrastructure, residential buildings, tourist hotels, and airlines, and the U.S. cannot protect them. Having a U.S. military base does not mean safety; it means added peril.

Democrats should not presume that Trump's GOP political base understands the war to have been lost. Trump has visuals of explosions, and Fox News is relentless in presenting this as a military success. It is indeed a military success. 

But military success is not victory. It may take a while for the country to realize this, but this reality will emerge. In the meantime, this is a political loser for Trump. Americans don't like long, expensive, losing wars.

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Whew.

So apparently all Hell did not rain down on Iran last night.

Hegseth: "Iran suffered a devastating military defeat."

It is déjà vu for me. Another "body count" victory, like the one in Vietnam. We killed more of the Vietcong than they killed of us, as if that meant we were on the path to victory. 

(Let me explain "body count" to young readers: In the 1968-1970 era the U.S. attempted to measure our progress in the Vietnam War by reporting the number of Vietnamese soldiers we killed compared the the smaller number of U.S. soldiers killed. Body counts were reported on the nightly news, perhaps 500 Vietnamese killed, only 50 of us, typically a ten-to-one ratio. Any Asian body counted as an enemy soldier.

 

The macabre information was presented as interim success toward ultimate victory. In 1970 junior officers began complaining that the numbers were inflated and that measuring bodycounts distorted our military operations toward a goal without military or strategic purpose. Eventually the top generals stopped announcing bodycounts; the public didn't like them and it wasn't leading to victory. The irony is that we didn't achieve our strategic aims until we lost the war and left. 

At a personal level, sitting safely in my dorm room, reading history and writing papers and thankful for a student deferment from the draft, I thought that the idea that my purpose as a soldier was to be traded as a pawn for 10 Vietnamese pawns, was a very, very bad deal.)

Iran was getting pummelled, but it isn't helpless. It had quickly set up a triage-and-toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Its friends got through; others did not. The system enriched and empowered Iran, rewarded Russia and China and other countries allied with Iran, and punished the U.S., Middle East, and European countries that supported us. Meanwhile Russia, China, and North Korea were tightening bonds with Iran, supplying Iran with intelligence and weapons. Ukraine was being disadvantaged. The countries of the Middle East were discovering that the U.S. could not protect them. Our long-established allies were being hurt by the oil price disruption and pulling away from the U.S., angry that we had let Israel push us into a war of choice. I had to pay $6.50 a gallon for diesel for my tractor, and gasoline prices in California were above $7.50.

Moreover, as a requirement of getting a ship past the Strait, Iran insisted that oil shipments be settled in a currency other than the U.S. dollar, which is speeding up the erosion of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The fact that the world needs to hold U.S. Treasuries to buy and sell oil is what allows us to carry a huge budget deficit at a lower-than-market interest rate. 

So much winning.

A viewer of Fox News will hear repeatedly that worthy war aims have been achieved and that Trump is a courageous, visionary hero who achieved a total and complete victory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters our credible threats worked:

President Trump had the power to cripple Iran's entire economy in minutes. But he chose mercy. He spared those targets because Iran accepted the ceasefire under overwhelming pressure.

Possibly my Vietnam bodycount analogy is misplaced. Maybe Iran is different, and the tool we are willing to use -- destroying things from the air -- will turn Iran into an oil-rich Switzerland, with no hostile intent to anyone, or failing that, into a whimpering loser of a country, unable to hurt others. Or perhaps, more likely, it creates the basis for a durable new status quo, a deal.

Netanyahu wants the extinction of Iran as a threat. Trump wants something else. He wants personal glory, admiration as a peacemaker, distraction from the Epstein mess, and plunder. Why go to war if there isn't plunder?

Iran has a powerful card to play: passage through the Strait secure enough that ships can get insurance to make the passage. Trump wants free oil, and maybe a share of the income from passage. A $200 million supertanker carries $200 million in oil on each trip. Surely such a ship can bear a $4 million toll, just two percent of the cargo's value, and surely the U.S. deserves some of that.

Trump may prefer a deal with a distressed partner and desperate ship owners to crowing over having created more rubble. Something might work out.

But the early news isn't promising.



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Baby, its cold outside.

Day off.

Today's post isn't about politics, Trump, Iran, Israel, ICE, or how a Democrat could possibly win a congressional election in a bright-red district.

Today's post is about frosts in my vineyard on an April morning.

The buds on my Pinot Noir and Malbec grapes began swelling about a week ago. On Friday, April 3, the temperature at the vineyard got down to 29.6 degrees. It might have been even lower if the fans I had installed last year had not come on automatically at 4 a.m. when the sensors on the fans registered 35 degrees. The fans stir up the air to mix the cold air that slides down off the Table Rocks, making its way to the lowest spot, which is my vineyard near the Rogue River.

The fans are illuminated by the spotlight at the fan's base. They look dramatic. They are loud. It is like being outside at an airport on a dark morning, surrounded by airplanes warming their propellers.

Most of the plants look like this, a four-year-old-plant, pruned and tied to cane wire 31 inches off the ground. The white stuff on the ground is exactly what it looks like: frost, at 7:07 a.m.  That black line about a foot off the ground is the irrigation drip line, currently drained and disabled. I will turn it on in a month or so.

The frost is visible on the main stem of the vine:

My farm has a frost problem because its location is a low spot where the very coldest air sinks. My melons are killed by frost, but they don't get planted until about May 10, when frosts are unlikely, so I was able to do well with melons. But two of the three grape varieties I planted present a problem. Pinot Noirs and Malbecs bud early in frost season. The problem is exacerbated by the warm weather. Wait!  Warm weather? What is it: cold or hot? The answer is both. On Saturday, the day after the frost, the high temperature in the shade was 91.7 degrees and it got to that temperature again yesterday. The early heat is accelerating the season, pushing tender buds into danger amid the big diurnal swings in temperature of early April.

 I have a fancy electronic termometer that reports and records the temperature:

Each fan uses about 15 gallons of propane per hour. Propane costs about $2.80 a gallon. On Friday the two fans each ran for five hours. Total cost: about $400. 

The early morning frosts create an eerie beauty. There is the roar of the fans combined with the dawn sunlight trying to break through the morning fog. It looks like this at 7:09 a.m.:

There are a lot of steps between this frosty morning and the wine to be made from grapes from this field. The wine would have an unusual backstory. The grapes are grown on 100-percent pumice soil, a rare terroir found here and in vineyards on the side of Mt. Vesuvius in Italy and the Aegean Sea island of Santorini. The pumice blew here from the explosion of Mt. Mazama about 7,500 years ago, when Crater Lake was formed.

But the real backstory is in my history with this land, so I enjoy a morning like this by turning my mind off the noise of the political world. I experience the eerie cold morning, the frost, the roar of the fans, and the sun trying to emerge. I get a strong sense of the present and past at once.

Dad, about 1970

My father and I grew Christmas trees and melons on this land 70 years ago, and his father and grandfather farmed it the 60 years before that, going back to 1883. This summer my sister's grandson will work with me to earn money for college at Oregon State, doing the hard work that is getting harder for me to do. That's six generations. 

At 9 a.m. the sun broke through the clouds, it warmed up, and the fans shut down. Events were playing out as they should. The buds and the emerging light-green leaves seemed to have made it through the night.

It would be a shame not to savor this.

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