Here is why we are at war.

"(War, huh) Lord, lord, lord, lord
(What is it good for?) Oh, absolutely nothin'"
       Edwin Starr, Motown anti-war song, 1969

People who go to war have very good reasons.

Reason: We cannot let Iran have nuclear weapons.

"They've rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can't take it anymore."

And more reasons:

Reason: Payback. Trump said Iran took Americans hostage in 1979, they carried out the bombing of a marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, and they might have been involved in the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000. He wrote on Truth Social that “Iran tried to interfere in 2020, 2024 elections to stop Trump." This made it personal.

Reason: Regime change. Trump sent a message to the Iranian people. Start a revolution. Create your own government amid the chaos. He said, "Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass."

Pundits offer other reasons.

Reason: Domestic politics, to improve his low approval rating. This one has instant credibility because it was top of mind for Trump himself when Barack Obama was president. Trump is unhappy about his bad polling. As is common with Trump, his accusations reveal a confession:

Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.
2:39 PM - Oct 9, 2012

and

Remember what I previously said--Obama will someday attack Iran in order to show how tough he is.
10:44 AM - Sep 25, 2013

Reason: Do what Bibi Netanyahu wants. Voices on the antisemitic, or merely anti-Israeli -- American right and left accuse the U.S. -- and Trump especially -- of having turned our Middle East foreign policy over to Israel. We are their patsy because "Jewish interests" in the U.S. control both political parties through campaign contributions. Bibi needs this war; the U.S. is dragged along.

Reason: Distract from the Epstein mess. The war pushed Epstein out of the news. The war changes the Trump news story from the lecherous playboy with teen beauty pageants into a bold military leader involved with far more important matters than unprovable sex crimes. 

Reason: Iran is a package deal with Venezuela. U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are set up to process heavy oil.

Venezuela has the world's largest reserves of that sludge-like oil. It needs to be mixed with very light oil to transport via ships and pipelines. Our new Venezuelan oil resource is incomplete without Iranian solvent. Trump is not a sentimentalist. Strong countries don't go to war for intangible democracy or human rights. They go to war for resources. 

Reason: The U.S. picked a side in the Middle East rivalry, the side that wants to do business with Trump, not the side that cares primarily about religion. This is a regional war: the Saudis and Arabic oil kingdoms versus Persian Iran. The oil kingdoms are now modern capitalists at heart.  We -- and Israel -- can do business with them. 

Burj Al Arab ultra-luxury hotel in Dubai

There is a reason that Iran lobbed a missile into this Dubai hotel.

Reason: We can. The U.S. has a big military. It isn't there to have on standby and not use. Why have it if not to use it?  The change from "Department of Defense" to "Department of War" reflects a change in policy and purpose.

Reason: Trump seeks a grand legacy. He seeks glorification. Leaders who have had their names associated with "the Great" have led successful conquests. They do big, bold things. The giant ballroom and arch projects, plus Trump's name and image on buildings, airports, currency, warships, and geographic features are not enough. Trump wants conquest. Cuba is next.

Reason: Save face. If things go poorly, there is always the fallback reason to keep on fighting even after all original reasons are gone. We cannot let the world see we did not win. That was our reason when the war dragged on in Vietnam. That is Russia's situation in Ukraine now. There is always a reason.

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Easy Sunday: Message to Iran

This isn't a new war. It is a new phase of a very old war. 

Greek City States fought the Achaemenid Empire of Cyrus the Great beginning in 499 B.C.

Design on Greek pottery: Fallen Persian soldier on left. Greek hoplite on the right.

 We are still in the honeymoon phase of this war. It is a time to imagine a happy ending: a short war; a lasting peace; Iran a  friendly neighbor in the region; and a new government in place establishing domestic tranquility among a people well-disposed toward the U.S., Israel, and the world. It isn't impossible. 

Trump carried out a sneak attack while amid supposedly-sincere negotiations with Iran. Trump did not sell this war to the American people, nor get the support of Congress, nor make this war a coalition of willing allies with a shared goal. We did this alone, with Israel. 

Sometimes process is important to the end result. This process is quick and dirty. It is swashbuckling. Heroic. It is Trump's style, especially in this second term. He doesn't wait for permission or consensus. 

Trump dismisses impediments that hobble presidents burdened by the Constitution, American laws, international laws, or norms of behavior. He is a modern-day Alexander the Great, solving Gordian Knot problems by slashing them with a sword. He is a winner and no one can stop him. Trump is consumed with hubris. He is dangerous, a dynamo in the center of our politics, the center of attention. Millions of Europeans, many of them French, died because of Napoleon's ambitions. Nevertheless, or because of it, the French have a giant memorial for him.

College classmate Chris Kellogg captured Trump's hubris in this imagined message from Trump to the people of Iran.

               TO THE PEOPLE OF IRAN

Ready or not here I come.

I have finally and successfully provoked an attack from your Ayatollah. I don’t care much if tens of thousands of you are going to be mowed down, detained or tortured by your security forces, but I don’t want your current leaders to make atomic weapons. Therefore, I personally have decided that the U.S. should bomb your country’s infrastructure even though bombing-only campaigns have only created complete chaos with few intended results elsewhere, e.g. Libia, Ukraine, etc. So now, no matter that you have no capable resistance organizations or weapons to protect you, I expect you to overthrow the regime. Then maybe I can get a long-deserved, Nobel Peace Prize - I only have a few years left to try, and the one I've got has a Venezuelan name on it.

Also, since you are not as valuable as White Christians, the casualties you suffer should not be a concern. I know I said I was going to do something to protect you, but should you consider fleeing to the U.S., just remember that although ICE is very nice, you should go to Canada instead.

Just remember there is no peace without war unless you avoid military service altogether. And good thing I did not consult Congress although it was not in response to an imminent attack.

 Despite the distration of the chaos and buildings falling around you, I thank you for your attention to this matter.

From my golf course - you should see how beautiful it is today - where I am winning too much.

DJT

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We have gone to war.

"War is the health of the state."
Randolph Bourne, American public intellectual, 1917

We are in the startle phase this morning. The startle phase is the orientation: "Wow. It happened. War."

The "shock and awe" phase comes shortly, when we see video of our missiles and airborne firepower. The U.S. likes fighting from the air. That's our wheelhouse. There is something exhilarating about sitting in a safe, comfortable spot, seeing what looks like fireworks, when viewed from the shooter's view, and far away.

This is the honeymoon period. 

We can hope that this comes to a good end. What would that be? Maybe a friendly Iran, no longer a state sponsor of anti-west terror. Maybe it becomes a secular, multi-ethnic, democratic state seeking peaceful trade deals with the world. In the honeymoon period, anything is possible.

Notice that Congress did not declare war. Indeed, it was not consulted. The American people were not consulted either, beyond the fact that we elected Donald Trump. We did not elect a dictator; we elected a president within a constitutional structure. We did not sign off on this war.

Congress has abdicated its responsibility. Every president wants to accumulate power. Under Trump, Congress became an advisory body: partly Greek chorus, partly hands-off board of directors, partly a bullpen and audition space for future executive offices. They have let this president accelerate the transition to an imperial president. Trump wants all of that power and more, and he takes it. Congress lets him.

"There will be casualties," Trump said early this morning. This is war, it is intentional, and we are taking the initiative. There are questions deserving debate and the consensus envisioned in a constitutional republic. Is this war in our interest? What are our war aims? Are we willing to put boots on the ground?  How are we going to pay for this?

Randolph Bourne warned that the war concentrates power in the executive. This war has a second front, in the multi-decade war over our form of government. 

In a battlefield war map, officers would mark this month's tariff case in the Supreme Court as a setback for the executive in the battle line of power. (The Court acted independently, as a temporary but inconsistent ally of Congress.) Congress fought back the tariff bulge initiative.

This war has a second purpose: the presidential power battle. It reasserts presidential primacy in major policy decisions. He just did it. Sit back and watch. This war is a back-door way into better control of state and local government by triggering the "wartime" exceptions and special powers. The president had asserted special powers because we were at "war" with drug gangs and unauthorized immigrants. It was a stretch, at best. But this is real war, with aircraft carriers and fighter jets. It opens the floodgates of new powers. He can make certain that the right people vote in November and that ballots are counted and reported by people loyal to Trump.

I don't feel hopeless. Congress could assert itself. The time to have done so is weeks and months ago. Congress will rise up off the mat if and when the war goes badly. Then voices will emerge saying that the president had no right to do this. 

I want success and safety for our troops. That would be a good outcome. But there are consequences to that. If things go well, Trump will say it is proof that he alone knows how to win and that we should cede him even more power. And he will take it.

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Epstein files keep dripping out

"Exonerated."

That is Trump's position. Not just "not guilty." Not just "unknown," nor "unknowable," nor "unproved guilt based on admissible evidence in a court of law." 

"I have nothing to hide. I've been exonerated. I have nothing to do with Jeffrey Epstein."
          Trump to reporters on Air Force One

Democrats who get their news from a mix of "mainstream news" and from social media feeds derivative of those sources think Trump is surely guilty of something illegal or hugely embarrassing as regards Jeffrey Epstein. After all, it is Trump-the-Lothario-predator. Otherwise, why his ham-handed coverup? And look at all the evidence. Photos. Flight logs. Birthday cards. Testimony from victims. 

Trump has protectors, not defenders. The Justice Department and his allies in the Congress withhold information the best they can. When they are forced to release information they mess it up with haphazard redactions and point at Democratic-coded people and institutions. That is why they questioned Hillary Clinton yesterday. 

No Trump defender says, "Manipulate a young woman into sex play? Why Trump wouldn't do anything like that." 

Being a sexual predator sounds exactly like something Trump would do if he could get away with it. He has had a lifetime of experience doing it. He bragged about being able to walk in on undressed contestants in teen beauty pageant dressing rooms. Trump's supporters heard the Access Hollywood tape and voted for him anyway. It was "just Trump being Trump," evidence of his forceful will, his ability to take what he wants. Trump-the-winner in sex, politics, and war. Maybe we can get Greenland.

Democrats who consider Trump to be a malicious sociopath, a narcissist, a flagrant liar and lawbreaker, and a man unfit for any position of responsibility -- a reasonable position -- have a hard time crediting Trump for his talents. Democrats overlook his skill in transactional negotiations. Trump takes an outrageous opening position. Greenland. DOGE. Tariffs at 100 percent. Ghislaine Maxwell -- herself negotiating for a full pardon -- asserts that Trump "was a perfect gentleman." Exoneration is a negotiating position.

I doubt the Epstein files will resolve anything, although I expect more resignations and public shaming, some well-justified, some guilt by implication and accusation. The files have gone through many hands. I presume some files were shredded, some are intact but haphazardly redacted, some released, some withheld for good reason, and some withheld for corrupt reasons. Even photos and videotape with clear images of Trump doing criminal acts with very young girls can be discounted as fake, manipulated, or created by AI.  No credible proof is possible. 

That is the real lesson Americans will learn: No one knows, and some people will get away with bad behavior. The result will be a general cheapening of America's respect for our business and political leaders and an overall sense that there is no true anything. The news is fake. Elections are rigged. Tabulating machines flip votes. Obama's birth certificate was faked. The CDC hides that vaccines are dangerous. College admissions are rigged. Sports are rigged. Members of Congress trade stocks on inside information. There really was an elite ring of powerful pedophiles, only it wasn't in a pizza shop basement. It was on a private island. 

Trump is hurt by the Epstein mess, but so is everyone else. Trump is adept at riding out a scandal: deny, accuse, deflect. Trump's malignant sociopathy gives him a powerful weapon: shamelessness. Others will resign. They will admit to some error in judgment. They will feel shame. Not Trump. After all, he was exonerated.

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Report from Mexico (A Trump-free post)

February 22: State Department Travel Warning: Avoid much of Mexico.

February 25: Travel Warning lifted.

"All restrictions related to the events of February 22 on U.S. government staff in Mexico have been lifted.  The U.S. Embassy and all consulates in Mexico are operating normally."

What the heck was going on in Mexico this week?

The Mexican government, apparently with U.S help, killed a leader of a major drug gang while trying to arrest him. That triggered a well-established response in the form of localized violence staged by members of the drug cartel.

From my home in Medford, Oregon it seemed dangerous. Roadblocks. Burning cars. The State Department travel warning confirmed my concerns. College classmate and Mexican expat Erich Almasy seemed quite sanguine when I telephoned him. I didn't hear gunfire in the background while we talked. Quite the opposite. He spoke of concerts and dinners with friends. He said there is a pattern to these events and he doesn't expect trouble. He agreed to send me his perspective.

Erich Almasy and wife Cynthia Blanton

Guest post by Erich Almasy

México has an extremely violent history. Although, to be fair, many of the over 70 countries my wife and I have visited can claim a similar heritage. Including the United States. When they think of the Mexican Revolution, fought between 1910 and 1920, most Americans imagine a bandolier-wearing mustachioed Pancho Villa. During that conflict, a population of roughly 15 million was reduced by an estimated 19 percent due to disease, famine, and warfare; that's more than the German Army lost in World War I. The late 1920s were not much better, as 200,000 died in the Cristero Wars fought between Catholics and anticlerics. 

During Prohibition, the families of the Tequila empires of José Cuervo and Cenobio Sauza fought pitched gun battles on the streets of Guadalajara. Since the founding of the Mexican Republic in 1824, three of its presidents have been assassinated, including two in the twentieth century. (NOTE: The United States tops this with four presidential assassinations, including two in the twentieth century). Partly because of this history, by law, Mexicans (and expats) are not allowed to own guns, even for hunting. The weapons used by the cartels, 

including the surface-to-air missile that recently damaged a police helicopter, were all bought in the United States and illegally smuggled into México.

NBC News headline

The death during arrest on February 22 of the New Jalisco Generation cartel head Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, better known as “El Mencho,” has sparked concern of major political and social upheaval in México, with cartel members blockading roads, burning buses and vehicles, and shooting National Guard members. On Sunday, tourist areas in Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara were placed under lockdown. Many American airlines canceled flights to México, and in San Miguel de Allende, our mayor called for a curfew. By the next day, all was calm and back to normal. My Mexican friends tell me this is par for the course and cite some compelling evidence that both the capture (and sometimes death) of major cartel heads, followed by noticeable violence, is actually a choreographed element of Mexican politics. Known as the Kingpin Strategy, it began with the capture and extradition to the United States of Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo, head of the Guadalajara cartel in 1989. Since 1995, nearly every Mexican president has conducted a major raid on cartels.

• 2022 (Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency) witnessed the capture of Rafael Caro Quintero, head of the Guadalajara cartel.
• 2016 (Enrique Peña Nieto presidency) witnessed the third recapture and transfer to the United States of “El Chapo” Guzman, leader of the Sinaloa cartel.
• 2013 (also Enrique Peña Nieto’s presidency) saw the capture and extradition of Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales, boss of the Los Zetas cartel.
• 2012 (Felipe Calderón presidency), Heriberto Lazcano, known as “El Lazca” (the Crazy One), head of Los Zetas, was killed by Mexican marines.
• 2010 (also during the Felipe Calderón presidency) saw the deaths of “Tony Tormenta,” the boss of the Gulf cartel, and “Nacho” Coronel, leader of the Sinaloa cartel.
• 2002 (Vicente Fox Quesada presidency) saw the death of Ramón Arellano Félix, head of the Tijuana cartel.
• 1997 (Ernesto Zedillo presidency) saw the death of Amado Carillo Fuentes, head of the Juárez cartel.

The follow-up to these raids is always the same, with blockades, threats of assassination, and vehicle-burning. They are not to be taken lightly, but again, my Mexican friends are both cynical and sanguine about these violent demonstrations. They point to the apparent appearance of “captured” cartel heads in places like Bali, years after their supposed incarceration. They have a point that this is theater. It is not in any of the cartels’ interests to harm tourism and damage an industry that welcomes 48 million people, employs nearly 8 million people, and accounts for 8 percent of México’s GDP. As of today, Tuesday, February 24th, the U.S. State Department has removed all warnings for Americans. The peso stayed steady at about 17.3 per U.S. dollar.

My wife and I moved to San Miguel de Allende in the fall of 2019. The town is almost 500 years old, and its colonial architecture and UNESCO World Heritage Site designation make it one of the most popular tourist attractions in México. We are surrounded by twelve-foot colonial-architecture walls, and we pay for a nightly neighborhood security guard. We have suffered no personal or property crime, unlike our six-years in San Francisco, where our car was broken into twice, and our home was attacked with an ax. Just as we did in San Francisco, New York, and Toronto, we are vigilant about our surroundings.

 

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You did not need to watch the speech.

Trump's State of the Union speech was a long, hard slog. 

A friend emailed me: "It is now 7:24, and I have turned to another program.

I emailed back: "I stopped at 6:33."

I watched excerpts and highlights this morning. I guessed wrong about Trump blasting the Supreme Court. By the standards of Trump, he gave them a pass. 

He simply called their ruling on tariffs "unfortunate."

Just four days ago an unfortunate ruling from the United States Supreme Court -- it just came down, it came down -- a very unfortunate ruling -- but the good news is that almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made. . . before the Supreme Court's unfortunate involvement.  Despite the disappointing ruling, these powerful countries' saving -- it's saving our country, the kind of money we're taking in, peace protecting many of the wars I settled was because of the threat of tariffs.

It sounds like near gibberish. Trump was "weaving," doing free association. The takeaway is that he did not repeat calling them "fools" and "lapdogs for the RINOs and the radical left Democrats." 

I stopped watching because the 15 minutes of celebration for the U.S. hockey team and repeated chants of "USA, USA, USA" near the beginning of Trump's speech bored me. We defeated Canada in a hockey game. Canada, that great evil empire? Say, what? We won a close game in overtime, and somehow this is the triumph of a great nation? It got tiresome for me.

Democrats know Trump's interpretation of events is laughably false, full of made up statistics, lies, mischaracterizations, self-aggrandizements, and unfair insults. Nevertheless, some 40 percent of Americans believe him. Or, don't exactly believe him, because it is so hyperbolic that it is obviously a salesman's puffery, but it is at least directionally true. Sort of true. It is a welcome truth that fits a comfortable partisan mindset. A person loyal to the GOP brand can relax into agreement.

Trump asserted:

--  Everything was terrible under Biden, just as it was under Obama. Trump inherited carnage upon his inauguration. Life under Democratic presidents is utterly different from life while Trump is president. 

---  Trump fixed everything. Inflation, the price of eggs and gasoline, immigration, crime generally, the murder rate, taxes, trade relations, and world peace. 

---  Democrats can win elections only if they cheat. If they win, it is because they cheated.

--- Trump has made the U.S. respected in the world. Under Democratic presidents, foreign leaders laughed at us and took advantage. Now we are feared and respected.

---  Tariffs are paid by foreign countries and they knuckle under because we have a strong president. It is bringing in lots of free money for us.

---  Trump has a medical plan in the works, and it will be great. Stupendously great. Just wait and watch.

---  Military power is solving the problems of the U.S. and the world. It brings us cheap oil, it stops drugs, and it settles wars between foreign nations. 

---  Trump is a full-throated patriotic cheerleader for America. America is good and great and always has been. We have nothing to regret.  

Support of Trump by Independent voters, in yellow, ticked up during the hockey celebration

Expressions of patriotism should be easy for a Democrat hoping to lead the party, but it will not be. America's mistakes are an integral part of the Democratic interest groups' understanding of today's problems. We own the past in order to improve and make that "more perfect union."

Trump tells Americans that they should be proud of themselves and their history, period. Forget any bad stuff that Democrats keep bringing up. It never happened, or if it did it is the fault of Democrats. We are strong and we are good. We are number one. We are winning and winning. USA! USA! USA!

There is a lesson here. Democrats may need to adopt a glass-half-full-and-filling-up tone. We are getting better all the time. Democrats are the party of progress, not regret. 

Remember: the speech that launched Barack Obama was one of pride and optimism. He said there are no blue states, no red states, no Black America, no White America. We go to church. We coach Little League. We are OK. And in the end, he said, the bedrock of this nation is the belief that there are better days ahead.

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Watch tonight. Trump will attack the Supreme Court.

I am betting on Trump being true to form: selfish, petulant, on the attack, partisan, and nasty.

He is going to criticize the Supreme Court justices who voted to disallow his tariffs.

That would be a political mistake.

The State of the Union speech gets enormous staff input. Other minds have gamed this out with him. He will have considered the pros and cons of laying into the Supreme Court, so this will be a calculated decision. It is possible someone will tell Trump to surprise people. Cajole the Supreme Court and be nice. That would generate a big headline: Trump accepts Supreme Court decision on tariffs. It would be news. 

I think Trump will go the other way. He will be nasty. He is on a roll:

--  He has said, "They're just being fools and lapdogs for the RINOs and the radical left Democrats." 

--  He has said, "It's my opinion that the court has been swayed by foreign interests."  

--  He has said they are "an embarrassment to their families, to one another." 

Trump's brand is defiance: You can't tell me what I can't do. He immediately announced a work-around after being denied tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act by announcing a 10-percent -- no, make that 15-percent -- tariff under color of a different law. So there!   

Trump knows the Supreme Court holds weak cards. He sees that they are treading softly, trying not to provoke him. He knows he is being "handled" because they cannot risk his wrath. He has the power. He can destroy the courts. He can make the judicial branch merely advisory, as concerns presidential power. 

That will be Trump's calculation: He is strong and the Supreme Court's only weapon is a reputation for fairness, and events have largely squandered that. The Republican senate majority leader gave the game away when he stalled seating Obama appointee Merrick Garland and then rushed through the seating of Amy Coney Barrett. It is power politics. It is a Republican Supreme Court. 

The victory exacerbates a trend:

Pew poll, September 2025

Support for the Supreme Court has become thoroughly partisan:

Republican support for the Supreme Court is where the peril lies for Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Court is fair and reasonable with 63 percent calling it "middle of the road." A majority of Americans as a whole, and a large majority of Republicans (71 percent), think the Supreme Court has "the right amount of power."

It is a strange situation. The public is skeptical of the Supreme Court's fairness and objectivity, but they still want it to have power. Even if the refs are biased, the game is still better if there are refs on the field. There is a lesson there for Trump.

Trump is miscalculating his power to be the high-handed, norm-breaking strong man he likes to be. Trump understood that Americans wanted something done about unregulated mass immigration, but people are increasingly critical of his methods. That is the growing read on Trump: OK ideas, bad execution. It is impossible to keep Americans happy, not when there are problems in every direction: inflation, affordability, employment, wars, drugs, crime, health care costs, Jeffrey Epstein coverup, and indeed everything. Everything could be better.

There is an idea rising in the political atmosphere that Trump is unconstrained, careless, and unreliable, now more than ever. He is unpredictable. The 10-percent, then 15-percent, tariff in back-to-back days is an example. What the heck is he doing? So far he has gotten away with the crony grift -- apparently people don't mind him enriching himself -- but the Epstein coverup looks worse than merely suspicious. Trump isn't "totally exonerated." Other countries are cleaning house, but the USA keeps protecting its elites, including Trump. Everything about Trump is getting louder, crazier, worse. 

People are noticing:

I don't think there is anyone on Trump's team telling him to chill a little. To show some respect for others. To be a good sport. Trump's mistakes are ones of excess.  

Trump is widening his legitimacy gap. A six-three court is not validation enough for Trump, giving him a platform from which to expand his power while people think he is playing by democratic rules. He could stay within their blessing, but he wants more. Trump is making the case that something or someone needs to put the brakes on Trump. 

That is what midterm elections are for. 

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