Friday, September 11, 2026

A meet-and-greet event for Denise Krause on Sunday

My wife and I are holding an event on Sunday afternoon for Denise Krause, candidate for state Senate.

People will arrive. I don't know how many -- I am guessing 50 -- but I am OK with the uncertainty. More is better.

People don't RSVP to political events anymore. That's OK, too. 

I have made no secret of my hope that a good, reasonable Democrat holds onto the Oregon state Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Golden.  

Denise Krause won a contested primary, and in doing so,  made some Democrats unhappy with ads that said that politicians in Salem had not solved problems. That seemed to some Democrats like criticizing her own team, since Democrats currently have a majority in state offices and the Oregon legislature. I don't consider her criticism disloyal to fellow Democrats. Democrats in Salem could use some shaking up, and the best way to do it is by a Democrat who wins in a downstate district despite an avalanche of Republican advertising. That gives her credibility.

Krause wants to be a change agent in Salem, and that requires calling out things that need fixing in a Democrat-majority state. It means that the centers of Democratic money and orthodox policy have had to endure her criticism. For example, I have heard her say it was a mistake a decade ago for Oregon to cut the regional colleges like Southern Oregon University out of a state system of higher education. SOU did not screw up. It was set up to fail, and other regional colleges are next in line. This steps on toes of those who thought that was a great idea, including supporters of Oregon's flagship universities. 

I don't know her Republican opponent, Brad Hicks, except by observation. I don't doubt that he is a "nice person" and is earnest in his desire to "do a good job" as he sees it. But once again the state's Republican juggernaut is pouring a million dollars into a campaign to add to the Republican team. Republican candidates can pretend independence, but dare not exercise it. It is Trump's party on issues that interact with the national government, and dozens of issues do, including  Medicaid funding, election districting and certification, mail balloting, reproductive rights, immigration enforcement, forest management, and many more.

As Trump said this week: "I'm asking you to pretend I am on the ballot." 

I feel sorry for Republican candidates because I understand their dilemma. If Trump cares about the issue, Republican officeholders need to be Trump-compliant or else they get squashed like Mike Pence. Or like Reps. Thomas Massie and Adam Kinzinger; or Senators John Cornyn, Thom Tillis, and Jeff Flake; or the Indiana state senators who tried to buck Trump on his gerrymander demand. It is why Republicans who could stop the pay-to-play corruption instead are silent as Trump collects some $2 billion in payments in tribute by foreign countries and American businesses. It is why my congressman, Republican Cliff Bentz, did not dare say aloud at a Rotary meeting a single thing he disagreed with Trump about. He was being cowardly, yes, but he was exercising survival instinct. 

Denise Krause's invitation says "RSVP optional, but helpful." That is a polite way to negotiate the consistent pattern in local political events that people are unreliable about RSVPs. I don't mind not having an advanced count of people. I urged Denise to invite as many people as possible, and I am doing so as well, right now. Why not? I have a microphone and audio system; seating and good food for 50 or 60; and standing room and a variety of beverages for hundreds.   

She has invited people to ask hard questions. I hope they do. Tough questions are good preparation for the million dollars worth of ads that Republicans are spending to sink her campaign. She will stay until all the questions get answered.



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Thursday, September 10, 2026

Artificial intelligence: a warning.

Artificial intelligence is good for some things.

It is dangerous for others. Watch out.

A.I. is a persuasive bullshitter.


First off, let me acknowledge that A.I. can do miraculous things. I asked it to do a plausible third verse to Robert Louis Stevenson's poem, "Requiem," and it did, instantly, and the new verse was very credible as a continuation of the poem. It "got" the poem. It understood the subject, the mood, the "meaning," in the deepest sense.


I asked A.I. to do the lyrics and music in the style of Barry McGuire's "Eve of Destruction" or Bruce Springsteen's "Born to Run" on the subject of my congressman Cliff Bentz. It took seconds. It was good. It absolutely "got" the genre.

In preparing my amicus curiae brief to the Supreme Court on tariffs, I asked an A.I. program -- Claude -- to put into format ready for submission some research I had done about the First Congress's Tariff Act of 1789. I was fascinated at the detail of the law. It specified hundreds of tariffs on matters as small as swine bristles, and I used that detail to make the argument that Congress, not the president, was better suited to write detailed tariffs. Claude understood my instructions and instantly formatted my introductory paragraphs, making them ready to include in the brief. It understood all the technicalities and special rules. My attorney checked its work. It passed the strict review and conditions for Supreme Court briefs.

But this post is a warning. Here is why: The Oregon Department of Revenue is questioning a complicated point on depreciating money I spent on grape plants in 2023. I told Claude the problem, and asked it to analyze the situation. It came back in about 90 seconds with an analysis, telling me my position was exactly right. It raised some issues, then explained why they would be resolved in my favor.

I was thrilled. I shared the good news with an attorney who has deep experience with AI. He is an early adopter who uses AI in his legal briefs. He gave me a warning and a suggestion. "Artificial intelligence programs are designed to give people what they think will satisfy you," he said. "Tell Claude that you ran its good news past your attorney and he thinks your opinion is wrong and misses the important issues. See what you get back."

I did just that. Claude thought for 90 seconds and reported back that my attorney and I were astute to question its earlier report, and in fact there were several outstanding issues that could completely reverse its prior opinion. It wrote that until certain facts are clarified, which it had not considered before, no real opinion can be made one way or the other. Moreover, it warned that if certain elections and boxes weren't marked in the original return in an unintuitive and unlikely way, then the Department of Revenue's position is correct and I owe taxes, penalties, and interest. 

Oh.

This post is not about the merits of my case, although, yes, we clicked the right box. This post is about the danger of using AI for anything of consequence. The agreeability of AI makes it easy and fun to use -- so affirming! -- but that is why it is dangerous. It seems credible because it confidently tells you plausible information you may be pleased to hear.

What is my lesson from this?

-- Trust, but verify.
-- Check with a human with knowledge and experience.
-- Humans aren't obsolete.
-- And maybe the most important one: Character matters. A.I. is a people pleaser, not a truth teller. It is a bullshitter. It confidently reports information without knowing or revealing its limitations.

An employee who confidently assures us that some task has been done and checked -- maybe some document filed on deadline or an outside door secured and latched -- we do not want to know that, probabilistically, based on a review of thousands of past filings or the incidents of doors being secured and latched, information scraped from billions of lines of text and data held in the cloud, that, yes, those tasks were done. We need to know the truth: was the document filed on deadline and is the door locked and secured. An employee who bullshits us is dangerous.



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Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Shop your politics

Headline:

MapQuest Sees 1.5 Million Downloads After Defying Trump's 'Lake America'

I downloaded MapQuest to my phone. 

MapQuest Icon
Google and Apple changed the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America on their maps. MapQuest did not. 

I wanted to send a signal to the marketplace that I liked what MapQuest did.

I try to do business with people and brands that represent my values and politics. I own Lilly stock because I thought the company might do well, and I liked their GLP-1 product, Ro. I buy Bounty rather than Brawny paper towels because the Koch Brothers own the Brawny brand. I try not to shop at Home Depot because Home Depot's owner is a big Republican donor. I liked Amazon and Jeff Bezos better when he was the nonpolitical owner of The Washington Post, leaving it alone and letting democracy live in the light, rather than cowering in fear of Trump. 

Last year I bought a Chevrolet Blazer electric vehicle rather than a Tesla. Damned if I was going to send Elon Musk an extra nickel. I want to feel good about my car, and I wouldn't feel good about a Tesla. I would feel like I sold out, that I tolerated Musk's White-supremacy racism, and cavalier chainsaw cuts to government. 

Politically-influenced shopping is complicated by crosscurrents. I bought the Blazer from a local dealership, TC Chevy, owned, by a Republican, Alan DeBoer. I like the fact that DeBoer has been civic-minded and philanthropic locally, without being a showoff about it. He had been a Republican state Senator, in the Oregon 3rd district Senate seat I write about frequently. Public campaign reports show that he donates to Republican candidates in amounts befitting his business success, but he isn't Trumpy or an election denier, and I consider that a positive. I perceive his political motivation to be mostly frustration with Democratic groupthink in Salem. He isn't wrong. I have urged the Democratic candidate for state Senate, Denise Krause -- the Democratic alternative to Republican Brad Hicks, who I have described in posts to being tethered to Trump -- to do her own untethering from the Portland-centric Democratic consensus.

I am not embarrassed to be driving a Chevy with a license plate holder that says TC Chevy.

I buy Hoka athletic shoes now, and not Nikes. The Hokas are more comfortable, with a slightly wider toe box and softer cushion than the soft Pegasus variety of Nikes I formerly bought. I feel bad abandoning the Oregon-headquartered Nike, but I am conflicted. Phil Knight gave $2 billion to Oregon's Health Sciences University. That gets him some latitude. He has given millions of dollars this cycle to elect Republicans to state offices, and that is a negative. I am also conflicted because I own Nike stock. I bought the stock before Knight became locally famous for big contributions to Republicans. Maybe Republicans with narrow feet will buy Nike's shoes. I hope so.

I like shopping at Costco. They pay their employees well and they treat their vendors fairly. They demanded that Trump return the tariff money that courts determined was charged illegally. Good. I have an indirect personal interest in Costco. Valley View Vineyards makes and sells some excellent premium wines, and I hope they buy grapes from me that end up in their $25, $35, and $50 bottles of wine. They also sell award-winning inexpensive wine of blended varieties, Rogue Red. Costco carries it. The owners of Valley View tell me that Costco is very fair to deal with. 

The surge in MapQuest downloads shows that I am not alone in doing politics-influenced shopping. The discussion around artificial intelligence reveals the value of location-tracking data. That data gets sold to advertisers. I am no longer offended by my lack of privacy. I expect it. I assume that my car, my phone, and every app I have ever added to my phone tracks me. Google knows what is in my emails. My browsers track what I type. AI reads my blog, and reports as fact that pumice soils create excellent wines based on the micronutrients available to the capillary roots of grape plants in the extremely fine-grained pumice. I trained AI.

We are constantly sending signals into the great collection of available data in the mysterious cloud. The cloud is omnipresent and is striving to be omniscient. It knows what we buy and consider buying. There is no hiding. All we can be is a tiny bit intentional. 



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Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Guest Post: Labor Day, 2026

Labor Day picnics, with political speeches, used to be a thing.

Tam Moore remembers them. They reflected the political energy of workers advocating for workers. Thank unions for the eight-hour workday, the two-day weekend, and worker safety rules.

I have a tiny memory of those Labor Day picnics myself.

My memory is of one of the Labor Day gatherings at TouVelle State Park, alongside the Rogue River about a mile and a half upriver from the family farm. My parents attended. U.S. Senator Wayne Morse spoke.The date was 1953 or 1954. I was either three or four years old. There was some kind of drawing for a raffle prize. Senator Morse, at the microphone, called for someone to pull the ticket out of the hat. He pointed to me. I pulled the ticket. I still remember the event and it changed me in one, tiny way I remember every month when I get a haircut.

I stood right next to him. I saw his face and his huge, bushy eyebrows. They looked like spiders to me, with huge black legs sticking out of his face. Scary! That is what I remember.

When I get haircuts today I chat with the stylist. I ask if they have ever heard of Senator Wayne Morse. They are young. The 1950s, '60s, and '70's are ancient history to them. None have heard of him, a disappointment since he was such a hero to me during the Vietnam era. I tell the stylist to trim my eyebrows, and I tell the story of scary old men with bushy eyebrows. 

Tam Moore is a veteran TV and print journalist, now in his tenth decade of life, looking good and still engaged with this community in multiple ways.

Tam Moore, TV journalist


Tam Moore at 90



Guest Post by Tam Moore

Labor Day 2026

I just got up from the breakfast table at my senior-living facility after a most enjoyable series of conversations remembering what Labor Day used to be. My recollections, both as a journalist and for a brief four-year term as a local government politician, are far different from those of my tablemates.

Labor Day, to me, was a big thing.

Not just a celebration of the working man and woman, or recognition of great historical events in U.S. history of organized labor –- Formation of a women worker’s association in 1843 at a Lowell, Mass. textile factory; the 1871 organizing of workers by Mary Harris “Mother” Jones after her dress shop was destroyed by the Chicago Fire; cigar-maker Samuel Gompers’ 1886 formation of skilled-workers unions as the American Federation of Labor. See AFL-CIO timeline.

My first job out of college in 1956 was in Eureka, California, as good a labor town as one could find, with organized longshoremen, millworkers, operating engineers, electrical and communication workers, carpenters and laborers. They celebrated with speeches and a big picnic in Sequoia Park. I, a starting broadcast news reporter, went along for the fun because political candidates for local and statewide California offices came to Sequoia Park every two years kicking off their campaigns for the November general election.

When I returned to broadcasting in 1976 after overseas duty with the U.S. Army, home became Medford, Oregon. The Central Labor Council held a huge picnic at TouVelle State Park every Labor Day.

Pencil, camera and microphone in hand, I was there listening to candidates for local and statewide Oregon offices.

When I moved briefly into broadcast management, part of my job dealt with unionized electrical workers. I respected the way labor leadership looked out not only for member wages but for working conditions, and shared management’s concern for worker safety.

During my brief four years as a Jackson County Commissioner, public employee labor unions were on the rise – and they cared about their members. One of my most significant ex-officio tasks during that time (1975-1979) was serving on the governing board of the Western Oregon Health Systems Agency (HSA). It was tasked with allocating on a regional basis the capital investment of local and federal grant money for the first magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) machines. That process was stymied for about a year until the Bay Area Hospital District in Coos Bay named one of its directors to the HSA board. He was also the business agent for the Longshoremen’s local. He knew how to negotiate. Within 75 days, all of those expensive machines had designated locations filling real regional medical demands.

This Labor Day, according to the state AFL-CIO, there are just three picnics – at Oaks Park in Portland, in Lane County and in Deschutes County. The Central Labor Councils, which used to organize regional celebrations, folded in 2015. Some became regional chapters of the  Oregon AFL-CIO.

Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics data put 1989 as the high-water mark of union organization in Oregon, when 21.6 percent of the workforce paid union dues. By 2010 the percentage dropped to 16.2 and hit a low point of 13.5 in 2016. Last year Oregon had 283,000 union members, 15.1 percent of all wage and salary workers. Public sector unions dominate that total –education, state employees, local government employees and public safety workers. Health care union membership – nurses, behavioral health and long-term care membership is on the rise according to some sources but BLS doesn’t break out data in its 2025 Oregon report.

So Labor Day 2026 has come and gone. If you want to see a politician, turn on your TV or look in the margins of your social media feed. If you want someone with shared interest in your community. or skills to help negotiate a thorny public problem, you aren’t likely to find help at a picnic today celebrating a heritage which marked the first Monday in September since that big 1882 parade in New York City. Today at the federal level, there’s an acting secretary of labor after the Trump 2.0 appointee resigned under scandal. Acting Secretary Keith Sonderling celebrated with a press release highlighting the August jobs report and by visiting workers at a Westin resort and spa in Las Vegas.

The rest of us are on our own.



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Monday, September 7, 2026

Small potatoes

     "A lot of people don’t call it a war. I call it a military conflict because it’s small potatoes for us. It’s not a big thing." 
            President Donald Trump

"Small potatoes" was a risky thing to say. Foolish. Dismissive. But he will be politically OK. 

The Iran war is far away. 

The "small potatoes" comment could have hurt Trump. It could have been a "let them eat cake" moment. Senator Jon Ossoff made a "Trump fiddles while Rome burns" argument in his speech with a fleeting reference to the Qatari jet and Natalie Harp. But that story has faded. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama got badly hurt by their own dismissive comments: Hillary's "deplorables," and Obama's "clinging to their guns or religion." None of this has landed on Trump the way their words landed on Hillary Clinton and Obama. 

That idea of Trump being uninterested in the serious business of governing, caring more about ballrooms, reflecting pools, and getting medals, is in the zeitgeist. So this notion of being unconcerned with our soldiers in war-zones is out there. It comes on top of Trump's comment that the 250-plus-day deployment on the USS Abraham Lincoln was "not nearly long enough." The "small potatoes" comment could have filled the news with scenes of outraged parents of service members killed or injured in the war -- 18 killed, about 624 injured -- but I don't see much. I think Trump is getting away with this. 

Trump is positioning the war as an effortless display of U.S. total military superiority. The war keeps on going into its seventh month, but it's OK because we keep running up the score in this mismatch. We bomb and Iran suffers. Trump fills his Truth Social site with images reflecting a one-way war.


The reality is that the war is far away, and, except for gasoline prices, Americans can ignore it. There is a lot of complaining about gasoline prices because those have become a point of complaint, first by Trump against Biden, and now by Democrats against Trump. I just watched an MSNBC story this morning about the war; the words on the bottom of the screen throughout the story read, "Iran War pushes gas prices to $4/gallon." Politicians of both parties taught Americans to care a lot about the difference between a $60 fillup and a $75 fill-up.

We are witnessing the consequences of an all-volunteer military fighting a foreign war. When there was a draft and American casualties in the 1960s and early 1970s, there were mass protests by young people. I was in them. Absent a draft, and with the war being fought as it is at this moment, the war is not in our faces. We aren't being remotely honest about paying for it. If Congress okayed the war and voted a one-percent war surcharge tax, so that people saw what the war was costing us financially, this would be different. We aren't doing that. We are simply adding the cost of the war to the deficit and debt which will be paid, or not paid, in the vaguely imagined future.

Americans can ignore the war, and mostly do. Americans have not engaged with this war except as spectators, so the public is extraordinarily sensitive to the relatively minor ways that it inconveniences us. Gasoline prices are moving public opinion.  If we get regime change in the USA, it will be because Americans won't tolerate a $75 fill-up. Iran's ability to persist in the war and slow oil traffic in the Persian Gulf is leverage against Trump. It appears to match our ability to effect regime change in Iran by killing their leaders and pummeling the country with bombs. It hasn't worked for us; new more aggressive and bellicose leaders are in place in Iran. Meanwhile, Trump is in trouble. 

Irony is not dead.



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Sunday, September 6, 2026

Easy Sunday: "Out, damned spot! Out, I say!"

"The past is never dead. It isn't even past."
       
  William Faulkner

I don't blame Brad Hicks for trying to erase a history of Republican partisanship.

I am not surprised that a candidate with a million dollars of Republican money would try to sell: "Look! I'm a non-partisan guy! Really!"


I tuned into the Oregon Ducks-Boise State football game yesterday. It was a squeaker. Alas, Oregon did not look like a national championship team. Maybe they will improve.

The first ad I saw right at the kickoff was one for Brad Hicks, the candidate for Oregon state Senate in my district, a light blue district that includes Medford and Ashland, Oregon. I see his ads everywhere, all the time. He is awash in Republican money, so it he can easily afford them at a big Duck game, where ads are dominated by mass marketers like KFC, Coke, Subway, and the like. 

Hicks has two problems. The first is Trump.


Trump has nationalized politics down to the state and local level. Trump moved a space facility from Colorado to Alabama out of pique that state courts in Colorado prosecuted and convicted a county clerk for tampering with voting machines on his behalf. Trump also campaigned to defeat Indiana state senators who didn't buckle to his demand to gerrymander the state. Trump has made local offices about him.  A vote for Hicks is an affirmation of Trump, and his threat to our elections.

The second problem is that Brad Hicks is stuck with the past and current behavior of the organization he led. Hicks' ads claim he is a nonpartisan, work-across-the-aisle, not-a-party-rubber-stamp, kind of guy. He is using massive amounts of Republican money to broadcast that message. His problem is the financial record. That spot won't wash out: Oregon Secretary of State record. Then, go to "Campaign Finance Transactions," and enter 5067 for the Filer/Committee ID.

It is hard to sell an implausible lie, even with a lot of money, and especially when there is documentary evidence to the contrary. The Chamber was not nonpartisan. I do not blame Hicks, the Chamber, and its PAC for being relentless Republican partisans. It is their right. They are who they are. Fortunately, campaign finances are public records so we can see the reality behind the marketing.


KFC, to its credit, does not try to sell hot and spicy extra crispy chicken wings as diet food. Its ads show people finding the wings delicious. They promote what they are, not what they are not. KFC could try to argue that crispy chicken wings are a heart-healthy, low-calorie protein and "just like a green salad!" But it isn't true, and they know better than to try.

Can Hicks persuade voters to buy what he is selling? Possibly. A lot depends on whether there is a competent and well funded Democratic campaign to reveal the Chamber record of relentless partisanship under Hicks' leadership.

[FYI: Each bone-in wing has about 170 calories.  KFC extra crispy chicken is not "diet food." But you knew that.]



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Saturday, September 5, 2026

Can a Republican candidate escape Trump? They can try.

A spectre is haunting Oregon -- the spectre of President Donald Trump. All the forces of Republican campaign consultants and their candidates have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre. *

We don't see Donald Trump in the campaigns of GOP candidate for Oregon governor Christine Drazan or of Brad Hicks, the GOP candidate for Oregon Senate. We don't see that they are Republicans, nor that they are funded by giant PACs devoted to electing Republicans. 

In the case of Brad Hicks, the former CEO of the local Chamber of Commerce, there is no indication that the Chamber's political PAC operated as a GOP pass-through mechanism to turn supposedly nonpartisan campaign contributions into donations to Republicans. Oregon Secretary of State's Orestar report on campaign contributions tells that story, with in-and-out contributions to the Chamber PAC going promptly to state and local Republican candidates. 

Now Hicks tells a different story:

Brad Hicks: An Independent voice for Southern Oregon.

Affordability, Balance, and Common Sense. He will put families first, not special interests or political parties.
Brad Hicks doesn't believe in political problems or partisan solutions. He believes in Southern Oregon problems and commonsense solutions. For more than 30 years, Brad has brought Oregonians together across political lines to solve the problems. . . .

Christine Drazan sounds like a Democrat. She has just posted a 30-second ad that pulls a reversal on a public position pressed by Trump: his support for data centers. Drazan's ad condemns Democratic Governor Tina Kotek for having supported them in the past. Drazan also reverses the polarity on financial elites, saying that it is Kotek who is cosy with big business, not Trump and the GOP.

Click: Ad on X

Our 2nd District Congressman, Republican Cliff Bentz, when speaking to my Medford Rotary Club, focused nearly all his talk on state issues, not federal ones. He had staff members pass out a sheet of paper listing state problems while complaining that in years prior, when he was in the Oregon legislature, he was often outvoted. He had little to say about his current work as a reliable Trump supporter, enabling Trump on tariffs, the Iran War, and Trump's corruption. 

It is smart for all three of them to hide from an unpopular president. It is what I would do. 

Can Drazan and Hicks, campaigning in blue polities, avoid having Democrats see this election as anything other than a referendum on Trump? I think not. 

Trump is in our faces in a way that the Oregon governor and legislature are not. Trump is the prime mover on center stage in American politics. He works at it. Trump is attempting to ban the vote by mail that Oregon voters will use to mark a ballot for or against Drazan and Hicks. Trump bought 10 percent of Oregon's signature manufacturer, Intel, and is carrying out a trade war with the countries where Nike products are made. Trump is in the news multiple times a day. He is fascinating in his outrageousness.

An Oregon Democrat does not want to give Trump a "win," and Trump has made a lot of undecided people into Democrats this year. Electing a Republican governor or legislature would signal approval of Trump's America. Moreover, Republicans represent a risk. A Republican governor and legislature would be subject to Trump's demand that they find a pretext to void elections won by Democrats -- something already done by Bentz in his first vote in Congress. When pressured by Trump and their party, Republicans may need to find a pretext, however implausible, to overturn elections. Trump is actively laying the groundwork for it, doing so openly and proudly.

Would Drazan and Hicks cave to a Trump demand? Maybe, maybe not. That is the risk Democrats see. This is history, not imagination, evaluating that peril.

The problem with ghosts is that one is never sure if they are really there or what they might do, but the thought of them hangs in the air, an ever-present menace. Trump wanted Democrats to feel that menace, and he succeeded. He is a spectre overhanging Republican candidates.

------


(* That language may seem vaguely familiar. This post’s headpiece echoes closely the opening sentence of The Communist Manifesto, published in 1848. Karl Marx was warning that revolution was in the air.)



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