Biden is collateral damage

    "Out, damned spot! Out, I say! Here's the smell of blood, still. All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand."

             Lady MacBeth 

     

“Trump’s lost it and he’s terrified of Biden, and Biden’s not going to take any of his guff at all. This is actually good for Joe Biden. It puts him right at the forefront.”

                    Terry McAullife, (D) former Virginia Governor

Who is right?  Lady MacBeth or Terry McAullife?  

Answer: Lady MacBeth.

The Trump defense is working. It isn't about him. It is about Joe Biden.

The 2020 election will be a matchup, a comparison between two candidates. Theoretically, and traditionally, a re-election campaign is a referendum on the incumbent. That is part of why the Approve-Disapprove polling has been going on for decades. It was a good test of something important.

Not in 2020. Trump defines himself by his enemies. He has perfected "What-about-ism." Every criticism of him becomes an attack on the accuser. We see it happening right now. Trump is saying Biden. Look at Biden. What Biden did is treason. Biden asked that a prosecutor be fired. Biden. Investigate Hunter and Joe Biden.

Even when Trump is under the gun of impeachment for having pressed Ukraine to investigate Biden, Trump is relentless. This is all really about Biden, so investigate Biden, Trump says.

The non-Fox media has learned from 2016 the problem of treating false allegations as he-said/she-said. The news stories now include prominently that Trump's charge is groundless, that it has been investigated and found false.  No matter. The subject is the conclusion. Trump has Fox, talk radio, 70 million Twitter followers, GOP allies, and the status as President saying it is true, and the other media saying it isn't true. What is important is that it is being said. 

Biden. Biden. Biden. Biden.

Biden made an un-forced error. His son got a big payday from a Ukraine company. That is real. It is the equivalent of Hillary Clinton's speeches to Goldman, Sachs. Not illegal but awesomely stupid and short sighted. The Hillary speeches were a symbol of connection to what Trump--and voters--see as a corrupt system. The speeches documented that Hillary was somehow corrupt. The fact that Trump is demonstrated to be corruptly colluding with Ukraine is irrelevant. What-about-Biden? There is an equivalency, and Trump is far better at accusing.

The job held by Hunter Biden is not illegal nor unusual. There is a revolving door of government service leading to jobs as lobbyists and directors of companies. Air Force generals retire and go to work for Lockheed. Congresspeople and Senators leave office and cash in. Aides to committees and Senators put in a few years, get know-how and know-who, then cash in, working for a lobbyist or the National Association of __.  

It is a piece of the swamp. Voters don't like it, and for good reason. The Ukraine company wanted Hunter Biden on the payroll because of the connections and credibility he lent as the son of the Vice President.

Hunter Biden's deal looks weird. Regular Americans who go to work every day don't have children who get paid $50,000 a month unless they have some special skill. Hunter Biden's special skill is that his father is VP.

Bad. Very bad.

And that is Biden's problem--a problem Bernie Sanders does not have and that Elizabeth Warren is trying to shed. Biden is a lifer in politics, and never got rich doing it, but he raises money from the swamp and a member of the family got into the swamp.

It isn't the corpse of Duncan, but it is a spot of blood.

Trump versus The Democrat will play out on several lines of comparison:

   ***Republican vs. Democrat.

   ***Trump vs. Anyone But Trump.

   ***Trump the anti-immigrant vs. Democrat welcoming immigrants.

   ***Trump the corrupt rule breaker vs. the non-corrupt Democrat

It is that last one that is going to push Biden out of the race. Biden has swamp mud splashed onto him. 

I predict Biden will be shortly eclipsed by Warren and possibly Sanders, and his exit will make an opportunity open for Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, or Klobuchar. 

Possibly Biden will stay in the race until he is defeated in Iowa or New Hampshire, which would be a dis-service to Democrats. Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Klobuchar or someone else need time in the bright daylight without Biden to get known, get vetted, to show they can stand the heat. With Biden in the race they may not survive until New Hampshire in February. If they stay as understudies too long their reputation is that of understudy, not nominee, which diminishes them.

Biden is toast, but he may not believe it.

The media learned to call Trump's distraction "not merited" but it does no good. Biden is in the headline. That is enough. Denials just spread the spot.



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