Can Elizabeth Warren Win Wisconsin?

A Boston political observer warns: 

"Warren isn't all that popular in Massachusetts, you know."

Larry DiCara, a lifelong participant in Democratic politics in Massachusetts says Elizabeth Warren won't wear well.

"Her ability to relate to regular working people in middle America is almost zero," he said. "She doesn't connect with the blue collar people I talk to, and I talk to a lot of them."

He said she would match up poorly against Trump. "Trump somehow communicates that he represents the interests of working people, and Warren leaves them cold."

Larry was a college classmate. I was talking with Larry in his office in a downtown Boston law firm. DiCara is a former Boston City Councilperson and for decades as an attorney he has shepherded real estate deals in Boston. He is a donor, a candidate endorser, and an close observer of Boston politics. His office is filled with awards and mementos from Massachusetts politicians, from the Kennedy family, past and present congressmen, senators, governors, and mayors. 

He said he liked Elizabeth Warren and would absolutely vote for her over Trump. He heard me describe Saturday's extraordinary demonstration of enthusiasm for her. 

He said that Manchester, New Hampshire demonstration was irrelevant.   He said that of course she can turn out young women and get the support of older educated Democrats like us.  But she ran behind expectations in Massachusetts because people see her as an elitist. "She makes, what?, $300,000 a year teaching one course at Harvard Law School, and then spends her time giving speeches and writing books? That turns off working men and women in Brockton and Fitchburg," he said, naming two working class areas.

Gown and Town. DiCara was describing an age-culture clash, and the resentment that working people can feel toward people profiting from the social and economic escalator that advantages others, not them. Elizabeth Warren does well with the college crowd, privileged students and their parents and the people who go on to become engineers and doctors or bosses, the people who drive Volvos and listen to public radio. But Massachusetts' working people include a large number of cultural conservatives, ethnic Catholics, who are offended by modern secular progressive politics. 

"Hillary won California by four million votes. So what if Warren wins it by five million votes or runs up big numbers in college towns in states that Democrats win? That isn't where the election will be won or lost. It will depend on blue collar voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, with lots of voters like people in the parts of Massachusetts where she didn't do well," DiCara said.

I reminded him of her origin story, her version of her log cabin--the one she tells in every speech about her janitor father, her mother going to work at minimum wage at Sears, her big dream aspiration to become school teacher, and the way she has amped up her Oklahoma accent.

Doesn't that take away the elitist label, I asked.

He said it won't work. She would be defined by her policies the competition with Sanders moved her too far left.  He said that it was crazy to insist on Medicare for All, instead of the public option. "People like having choices."

He said that wiping out college debt won't feel right to that guy who scrimped and worked two jobs to get through school without debt. There could be alternative ways to help indebted students. "The government could buy out the private loans that are out there, and then charge zero or very low interest," he said, which would help a lot. "The lenders would holler, but screw em; that would be popular. But wiping out all the loans wouldn't be."

A lot of people are uncomfortable with abortion, he said. "'Safe, legal, and rare' is the right policy. Democrats have been pushed into sounding like they are happy with late term abortions and Trump will campaign on that."

I asked who he thought would be the strongest candidate. He said, "Joe Biden. Joe Biden is the calm guy, the consolidator. He is the welcome relief after this four year period of agitation under Trump. Politics is a see-saw. After Eisenhower, who had heart attacks and seemed like an old man, we elected young JFK. Obama was a black man and Trump was a kind of reaction to that. The successful Democrat will be the person who fixes the excesses of the previous president. People don't want new agitation from the left. They want some calm. That's Joe Biden. Not Warren or Sanders."

I told him that there are a lot of young activists who would disagree with him. He agreed. "But that isn't who will decide the election in the states the Democrats need to win the electoral vote."

For most Americans, Warren is a new face and brand. Larry DiCare has been watching her and evaluating her electability for many years. He may be wrong, but his observations are are deeply informed.