Canada is not going to pay our taxes for us. They have already announced retaliation with a 25% tariff of their own.
College classmate Sandford Borins is Canadian. He is a professor of Public Management Emeritus at the University of Toronto, having retired in July 2020 after a 45-year academic career. He maintains his own website where he shares his thoughts on politics and life in Canada: https://sandfordborins.com Here is his overnight reaction to the news.
 |
| Sandford Borins wearing the King Charles III Coronation Medal for public service, which he recently received |
Guest Post by Sandford Borins
Emperor Donald I
When Justin Trudeau had dinner with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago last November, Trump asked what the impact of tariffs would be. Speaking as an ally and a friend, naively it now appears, Trudeau said they would have a severe impact on the Canadian economy. Since that dinner, Canadian governments have responded to Trump’s original complaint to justify tariffs, working assiduously to harden what was once called “the longest undefended border in the world” by putting in place Blackhawk helicopters, drones, and patrols. Since that dinner, Trump – showing himself to be no friend of Canada -- has been telling people that the leader of Canada admits that tariffs would greatly damage the Canadian economy. Yesterday, despite our work to respond to the complaint about the border, we got tariffs.
What are the Facts?
Not that facts matter to Donald Trump, but in broad strokes these are the facts. Very little of the fentanyl illegally entering the U.S. (approximately 1 percent) is coming from Canada and very few of the people entering the U.S. (approximately 1 percent) are coming across the Canada-U.S. border.
Canada and the U.S. have a two-way trading relationship of approximately 1 trillion dollars annually that, overall, is balanced. Canada exports more natural resources (oil, gas, minerals) and the U.S. exports more intellectual property (Hollywood films, streaming and network television, computer software). Manufacturing is essentially balanced (the tightly integrated automobile assembly industry). In Trump’s first term, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico renegotiated NAFTA, the worst trade deal in history according to Trump, renamed a slightly changed agreement "USMCA," and gave Trump a big win.
Shock and Awe
The first fourteen days of Trump’s second presidency have seen a flood of measures intended to shock and awe Trump’s perceived enemies, domestic and foreign. They have included attacks on political enemies; rule by executive order; the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China; threats of tariffs against the E.U.; and threats of military action to seize strategic assets such as the Panama Canal and Greenland. Externally, Trump seems to be intending to convert alliances such as NATO into an American Empire, in which the U.S. uses economic and military threats to dominate.
The U.S.’s real adversaries – China and Russia – are undoubtedly looking for opportunities in this weakening of the western alliance. China will be offering closer economic co-operation, and Russia will be considering military action along its borders.
A History of Cooperation
Though Donald Trump ignores history, it is essential to recall the close history of military, cultural, and economic cooperation between the U.S. and Canada. We have fought side by side in every major war since World War I (though Canada did not participate in Vietnam and Iraq, two wars we regarded as overreach, a judgment borne out by history). Key moments in this history of cooperation include:
· Canadian assistance in bringing American hostages safely out of Iran after the Iranian revolution, celebrated by the film Argo
· President Clinton’s expression of support for a strong united Canada on the eve of the 1995 Quebec referendum on sovereignty, a message noticed by Quebec voters
· Canada sheltering airline passengers diverted from U.S. airspace on 9-11, dramatized by the musical Come from Away
· Canadian assistance during the Los Angeles fires last month, including sending the only water bombers able to use seawater.
The Canadian Reaction
Donald Trump seems to think that because Canada’s prime minister’s popularity is low in the waning months of his mandate, Canada will collapse like a house of cards. My reading of public opinion here is very different. Canadians, while feeling betrayed by Trump, are united and determined. There is very strong public support for the tariffs that Canada announced last night. Public reaction, in effect boycotts of high-profile American goods, may intensify the impact of our tariffs. And we will be looking for trade and investment partnerships to increase our independence from the U.S.
The political scene in Canada is changing as I write. With the key political issue being the relationship with the U.S., Canadian voters are asking themselves which of the candidates to replace Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party and, soon afterwards, which of the candidates in the general election, can best stand up to Trump.
The End Game
What is the end game of the trade wars that Trump is initiating with Canada, Mexico, China, and, coming soon, the E.U.? The U.S.’s allies are open to an honest and truthful discussion of ways to build a better alliance. Trump seems to be intent on building an American Empire, in which the U.S. dominates economically and seizes territory as it pleases. The U.S. will face economic resistance, as Canada and Mexico are demonstrating, and Europe will follow suit. There will be growing opposition to this costly imperial vision within the U.S. As a Canadian from birth and an optimist by nature. I will bet on the alliance.
[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email gfo to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]
15 comments:
I’m sure our molester-in-chief thought Canadians would jump at the chance to become our 51st state and lose their universal healthcare. Let’s not forget that to him, this is all just a “reality” TV show. When it comes to real reality, such as governing, diplomacy, economics etc., he can’t find his ass with both hands in spite of its size. However, he does have a real military at his disposal, and he really is a psychopath. Canada may want to consider building a wall and making the U.S. pay for it.
Thank you, Professor Borins! You've just provided the best news item in a long week of very bad ones. In opposing King Trump, Canada is
more than ever our faithful ally and beacon from the north.
Hopefully Canada's reaction will give the trump administration a moment to pause and rethink this stupidity. I am not hopeful, as he has surrounded himself with 'yes' people and watches fox "news" which generally lauds every move he makes as genius. This is far different from his first administration where he actually had some highly qualified people advising him. Things like this can spiral out of control... Let's hope not, not just for Canada's sake, but for ours as well, this has the potential to damage our economy beyond repair.
I’m wondering what MAGA people think of viewing Canada in adversarial terms? We have been friendly for a long time. Maybe they don’t care, but they won’t like the increase in lumber I’m guessing. It’s hard to imagine anything Trump leads us into will turn out well. The Dunning-Kruger effect is in play here for MAGA followers and for Trump himself.
“The U.S.’s allies are open to an honest and truthful discussion of ways to build a better alliance.”
Does anybody seriously believe they can have an honest and truthful discussion with a pathological liar? Perhaps they made the mistake of believing him when he disavowed Project 2025, the lunatic fringe’s response to the 1916 Project. Unfortunately, a plurality of voters were crazy about his threats and lies (literally). I’d like to feel sorry for the MAGA-hatters who believed he would reduce inflation, but they’re the chumps who turned him from a criminal into a president. So, enjoy the hubris; it's the closest thing to statesmanship that we're going to see for the next four years.
Dave, Very good point... I've done some construction and a 25% tariff on lumber will create instant inflation and a decline in construction here. This coming at a time when the LA area has thousands of homes to rebuild. Too many of my relatives and a few friends are maga... I've tried to talk with some about why a number of his policies are going to hurt us. But for all the good it does, I might as well be talking to the wall. trump has compared himself to Jesus and I often feel that trumpers worship him like they do a religious figure. God help us.
It's time to harvest some Oregon lumber instead of getting it from Canada. It'll create jobs in Oregon.
“trump has compared himself to Jesus and I often feel that trumpers worship him like they do a religious figure.”
Lest anyone think you’re exaggerating, we need only recall the whack-job “conservatives” at CPAC in 2021 worshipping a golden idol of Trump. Where's Moses when you need him?
Boycott Canadian bacon.
Red White & Blue Americans will root for Canada. Just like true Russian patriots root for Ukraine. In both cases, the victory of the aggressor country's leaders means the further subjection of its people.
All very good comments. And true.
"Boycott Canadian bacon."
This is the same kind of 'stoopid' that got us in this mess. So how smart do you really think this tariff nonsense is? So we're going to "punish" Canada for the trade war we started... by boycotting Canadian Bacon? Now that's just genius. Are you aware that over 50% of our foreign oil imports are from Canada? Over 30% of the soft wood in the U.S. is imported from Canada. That is going to run up inflation and hurt U.S. industry and consumers. Many economists tried to warn trump that tariffs would simply be passed on to and be paid by U.S. consumers.
I read the "boycott Canadian bacon" comment as humor. An expression of parody-style ignorance. Canadian bacon is simply bacon made from the eye of a pork loin. It is made anywhere and everywhere there pork is produced. It is't Canadian" fro Canada any more than French's brand mustard is from France or Mars M&M are from Mars. But one never knows with humor.
Peter, It sounds like humor, it is kind of funny when you compare it to the imports that we get from Canada that can have a serious impact on our economy, but I've seen this posted on twitter by Matt Gaetz and other maga heads and I doubt they're joking.
I have to admit, a lot of the stuff trump and his acolytes say/post sound like a joke (however bad), just to find out later that it is not.
It's true: Most Canadian bacon consumed in the U.S. originates within the U.S. itself. Maybe Trump and his chumps can just change the name to "freedom bacon."
Post a Comment