What happened?
What was the precinct-level vote in 2024?
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| Click here: Unlocked NYT article |
The New York Times makes this report available.
My main purpose in today's post is to remind readers of an extraordinary internet tool, these precinct-level maps. The second is to praise/thank The New York Times.
The news business is in trouble. Ad revenue is way down, swallowed up by Meta, Google, and other aggregators who rework the content created by others and then micro-target it to customers, collecting the majority of the potential ad revenue. Newspapers will survive by persuading readers to buy subscriptions to pay the cost of reporters talking to news sources, writing it up, getting it edited and distributed. The New York Times has about 11.5 million subscribers, a majority of whom are digital-only. Real news is expensive. Donald Trump calls the newspaper "the failing New York Times." The U.S. is better off if its news institutions survive. I subscribe, which is why I can share this article -- one of the benefits of being a subscriber.
Some states and counties are slow to upload data, but readers in my home country and in most battleground states can see what happened in 2024, and with a click compare it to the 2020 election. Jackson County, Oregon is one of the places with a full data upload.
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| 2024 Results |
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| Shift from 2020 to 2024 |
Clicking on the map brings the detail into closer focus down to individual precincts, showing how powerful is the "neighborhood effect." Ashland, Oregon is a college town, but its politics and culture are better understood as a place of prosperous, well-educated people seeking a simpatico environment that emphasises livability. One sees pedestrian shoppers and tourists here. Real estate prices are 30 percent higher than the county median. Here is a precinct on a hillside with views across the valley to the east. The other Ashland precincts have similar voting results.
Jacksonville is a small haven of people seeking a village atmosphere of history and culture. This is an old gold-rush village boom-town four miles west of Medford. One sees pedestrians here, too.
Jackson County as a whole voted for Trump. Precincts outside of city limits are overwhelmingly red. My farm is eight miles from Medford and five miles from Central Point. My general assumption is that every single male I see doing agricultural work, or in an agricultural context anywhere near my farm, is a Trump supporter. I won't be far wrong.
To the east of my farm, in a mixed exurban/industrial area, is the area that most benefits from the social programs supported by Democrats. It is among the reddest parts of the county. White City is an unincorporated but urbanized area. It has a concentration of poverty, disability, drug and alcohol services. The precincts surrounding it voted for Trump 77- 21 percent, 75-22 percent, and 76-21 percent. MAGA voters want something other than the social safety-net Ashland Democrats support. They use it. They don't value it.
The maps encourages exploration of border-town precincts, battleground state precincts, and old neighborhoods. The presumption many readers will have, that Cambridge, Massachusetts is bright blue, is correct. That is Harvard Yard in the center of the image:
Find your own neighborhood. Explore. It is made possible because great newspapers still exist, and they still exist because subscribers still exist.
Here are some additional links:
2020 election map: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html
2016 election map
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13 comments:
In my life, I've seen our nation degenerate from a democratic republic to an oligarchy. Just a reminder: In Medford there's a protest against this at the courthouse from 12 to 4. I know some consider that pointless, but I encourage you to speak out while you still can.
I worked corrections in Alaska for 30 years and I’m guessing the inmate population if they could vote would be about 85% Trump. The 15 % who would vote democrat would be largely Alaskan natives. It used to surprise me how conservative inmates were politically.
I was recently on a business trip eating dinner solo at the bar. Next to me was a fellow business traveler who is a retired US Army Colonel who is now COO of a mid-size for-profit hospital chain serving rural areas.
He said about 22% of their patients cannot pay, and about 40-50% of the rest are on Medicaid or some kind of government assistance. He said if those funding sources get cut, they will be forced to curtail services or shut down many of their sites or face insolvency. This is just one conversation, but we are reading about this already (if you subscribe to the NYT or other paid journalists)
Of course when these things happen, blame will be cast on previous administrations, but for how long before the MAGA-faithful find they have been duped?
Like attracts like.
It's ironic that the people who do not support government assistance with health care (Medicare, Medicaid, the ACA) don't seem to realize that without these programs, people with private insurance pay more for their care, A LOT more. Those with private insurance end up subsidizing those without insurance. If this help comes in the form of taxpayer assistance, the costs are spread more evenly.
John C. asks, “…how long before the MAGA-faithful find they have been duped?”
If they still believe Trump after his daily dump of countless lies both big and small – especially The Big Lie – then they’ll undoubtedly continue to believe him when he continues to blame his FUBARs on everyone but himself. It would require deprogramming to convince them otherwise – the truth is so boring compared to their conspiracy theories.
Trump is a skilled politician. Let’s say he cuts Medicaid, and many of his voters lose their medical coverage. He has to know that this is going to happen.
Which makes me wonder, is he somehow going to manage to turn this around on the Democrats? I wouldn’t be surprised…
Jennifer, I don’t believe people think of, or care about the economic impact to others. They will however notice when they cannot get basic healthcare in their communities. And by then it is too late.
Fascinating. I see a curious large blue spot in the middle of the red state of Idaho. A few precincts including Hailey/Ketchum (Sun Valley area), the tiny vacation town of Stanley, a few vacation cabins, and vast national forest/ wilderness area. From above, looks like a huge area--deceptive, because so few people live there. Boise, likewise, is a bright blue spot in a huge red Ada County. Makes me think Idaho has a Blue Heart.
He absolutely 100% will blame it on others. Democrats. China. Obama. RINOs. But mostly Democrats, and he will say it repeatedly, with certainty.
Do you think it will work? I think it might…
It only works on Trump’s chumps – the cult members ready and willing to slurp up whatever’s in his punchbowl (it’s only Kool-Aid, folks – trust me). Some folks voted for him because he promised to bring down grocery prices on day. God knows why they would believe him, but they could be teachable. The same for those who get deprived of their healthcare.
People need to be reminded that the following is Trump’s own definition:
“Leadership: Whatever happens, you’re responsible. If it doesn’t happen, you’re responsible.”
JFK took the blame for the Bay of Pigs operation. That was a real president. When has Trump ever taken the blame for anything? It's always the Democrats fault. He sells it and lots of people believe anything that comes out of his mouth. Now he's firing FAA people. Like, who needs traffic controllers? Trains might be making a comeback.
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