Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Congress isn't stopping Trump. But unpopularity will.

"Ambition must be made to counteract ambition."
     
    Alexander Hamilton or James Madison, Federalist #15
Americans disapprove of Congress. 

Congress has capitulated to the executive. 

The authors of the Constitution assumed people like Trump would come along. He is a popular, charismatic demagogue who claims authority because he directly represents the will of the people. The design of the Constitution was to stop one-person rule by such a person. The president would be subject to impeachment and the legal system. Congress alone had the sole power to make laws, the power of the purse, and the power to declare wars. The Senate had the power to approve treaties and to approve senior executive appointments. Congress has tools.

Congress has abdicated. Its members will not risk re-election by insisting on their obligation to share in governance. 

Donald Trump demands loyalty. We watched Iowa Senator Joni Ernst approve Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense and Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, a physician, approve RFK Junior as head of HHS. The didn't want to do it, but they caved. Former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney is a cautionary tale for Republicans. No matter how popular and deeply connected an elected official is to a constituency, no one can withstand the one-two punch of Trump and unlimited money spent against them in a primary campaign.

The Murdoch-owned The Wall Street Journal is troubled by congressional abdication. 

Wall Street Journal
The Journal represents the business perspective in the GOP coalition. Businesses require the rule of law. Businesses fears erratic one-person rule by someone subject to off-stage influences. Supply-chain management requires predictability. Trump flouted the law in declaring a tariff under a pretext national emergency. (Congress isn't crying foul.) Trump announced that he would ignore a law passed by a bipartisan Congress that shut down TikTok. Billions of dollars are at stake. (Congress did not stop him.) Congress passed a law requiring the president give 30 days' notice before firing inspector generals. Trump fired 17 of them. (Congress is not protesting.)

Theoretically, there would be a bipartisan revolt against Trump. It isn't happening. Republican officeholders are going along.

The real check on Trump is not the law and the Constitution, and might not even be the courts. Democrats should not think they can stop Trump by arguing undemocratic processTrump taught the public not to care, and GOP politicians don't dare assert themselves. However, Trump has a vulnerability: He wants to be popular. Trump will get away with doing popular things. This includes using the pretext of national emergencies to send the U.S. military to the southern border. Trump ignored the law to keep TikTok on American screens because that was popular. He will override anti-discrimination laws to ban trans-female athletes from competing in women's sports because it is popular. He will kill DEI programs and pronoun announcements because doing so is popular. 

Democrats need not waste breath and credibility by condemning Trump for popular acts. They should abandon the formula that "if Trump likes it, then it must be wrong." Trump is, indeed a grifting, narcissistic, misogynist xenophobe, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Instead, Democrats must focus on the unpopular things Trump does. Tariffs that make prices go up will be unpopular. Freezing spending to create a mess in the Medicaid system is unpopular. Taking over Gaza with an "ownership" position is unpopular already, and will become even more so if we get mired in an endless war of religion and revenge. Trump is already screwing up.

Trump entered office as the least-popular president in American history, and it is downhill from here for him. Democrats just need to be careful that they don't do things that make themselves even less popular than Trump.




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17 comments:

Dave said...

What could go wrong with taking over Gaza and sending in United States troops? It’s a peaceful area that needs the calming influence of us telling them what’s best for them.

Up Close: Road to the White House said...

Funny.

Diane Newell Meyer said...

I have some hopes that the courts will stop some of this, but of course, with the current supreme court, that is iffy.

Mike Steely said...

Trump is a malicious criminal, traitor and compulsive liar – a toxic mix that Republicans find irresistible. It’s hard to imagine anything he could do that would turn them against him, other than suddenly caring about the Constitution and wanting to follow the rule of law.

Anonymous said...

Fact Check:
Where is the anti-discrimination law that allows males to compete against females? On the other hand, there are laws that protect the rights of women and girls.

On January 20, 2025, the new president signed the following executive order:

"Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government"

Google search to read the full text. It is very well written and gets right to the point (not too long).

The following Republican U.S. Senators voted against Hegseth:

Susan Collins (Maine)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky)

Michael Trigoboff said...

Peter is absolutely right. The only hope for the Democrats is to wait until actions by Trump have negative effects on Trump voters and then hit that hard. The only way to weaken Trump politically is to have current Trump supporters change their minds about him. The Democrats should stop doing things that motivate anti-Trump voters, but have the opposite effect on Trump’s supporters.

Protests targeted at Trump’s actions against Democratic sacred cows (like allowing biological male athletes to compete against women in women’s sports, or allowing open borders) will only backfire and make Trump stronger.

It’s an open question whether Democrats will be smart and disciplined enough to follow a strategy like this, or whether their emotions will overwhelm them and lead them into the same trap that they have fallen into over and over again.

Outrage is not a political strategy; it’s just self-indulgent virtue signaling.

Anonymous said...

"Virtue signaling" is in the eye of the beholder. It is a dumb cliche. I'm sure you can do much better.

John C said...

What happens if Trump simply ignores court orders and directs his will to be done, like Andrew Jackson did with Cherokee land rights? I expect it.

Michael Trigoboff said...

There is no need to do better when commenting on something as dumb as virtue signaling.

Anonymous said...

In case anyone is not aware, the Selective Service is still only for biological males. Just like on the tv show MASH, a male claiming/pretending to be a female is not exempt.

Mike said...

Someone said, "Outrage is not a political strategy." That's hilarious. In fact, it's the strategy that got Trump elected: outrage over losing the election, losing White privilege, losing our cats and dogs to immigrants, etc. As for "Democratic sacred cows," those would be the Constitution and rule of law; the rest is negotiable, but you can't negotiate with people who live in an alternate reality.

Anonymous said...

There are people who consider wanting to give a leg up to the less fortunate "woke" or "virtue signaling." Indeed, that is pretty dumb.

Anonymous said...

Helping the less fortunate is fine with me. Doing it by reverse racial discrimination is not fine with me.

Anonymous said...

This makes me wonder if my comments are sincerely being misunderstood, or if they are being purposely misunderstood for rhetorical purposes. I suspect it’s the latter, but who knows?

I try to be as clear as possible in my writing, but perhaps it’s not clear enough for “some people.“

Michael Trigoboff said...

This Anonymous comment was me.

Peter C. said...

Hey Anonymous, how about using your name? Otherwise, your comments are no better than AI generated.

Anonymous said...

Surely you jest