Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Constitutional Showdown

Trump is disobeying the law. Openly. Proudly. 

He doesn't think anyone will stop him. Not the Congress. Not the courts.

We are at a moment in history.


Attorney George Conway, a prominent anti-Trump Republican, writes commentary that reflects the worries of readers of the mainstream news. Conway said that the courts will do their duty and issue court orders directing Trump to obey the law, and that Trump will defy them.

Commentary within mainstream media describes a showdown that will alter the current balance of power between the branches of government. If the executive can override Congress' power to create laws and spend public money, then the Congress becomes an advisory body, not a governing one, on anything where the executive has an opinion. If court orders are openly flouted, then we have overturned the 1803 Marbury v. Madison precedent that gave courts power to decide what the law is. Courts, too, become advisory-only. The executive makes the final decision if there is disagreement.

Lower courts have already ruled that some of Trump's actions are illegal. A Reagan-appointed federal judge, John Coughenour, called Trump's executive order redefining birthright citizenship "blatantly unconstitutional." Two other judges in different districts have since issued similar rulings on the birthright citizenship case. 

Other judges, in matters involving the Civil Service, USAID, and spending freezes, have enjoined Trump's executive actions, saying they violate the law. Trump doesn't care. MAGA voters don't care. 

The Supreme Court has a dilemma. Chief Justice John Roberts does not want to go down in history as the Chief Justice who presided over disempowering the courts by reversing Marbury v. Madison. If Trump can defy an adverse court ruling -- and Vice President JD Vance said that is exactly what they are prepared to do -- then the executive department has the final say on what the law is. The spell is broken. The assumption, the agreed-upon norm, that of course respectable, law-abiding people obey the courts, is over. Once obedience becomes optional, then the rule of law is over. Decisions get made, but it is now a matter of cronyism, favoritism, influence and the momentary popularity of the decision. Not law.

The workaround for the Supreme Court is to vote to agree with Trump's position -- any position -- however the case presents itself. That way the Supreme Court would maintain the fiction that they remain the final arbiter of the Constitution, and they just happened to agree with Trump. They are the rider sitting on the elephant's head, pretending that they, not the elephant, decided that it should go to get a drink of water. Trump isn't making it easy for the Court. He is disempowering Congress on spending, and there are statutes and centuries of Supreme Court precedent on that. Trump's executive order on citizenship reverses 125 years of precedent. This could be another Dred Scott decision. Disallowing birthright citizenship to create a new class of stateless people with a ruling that Trump's order is constitutional would leave a dark stain on the reputation of federal courts. 

We are at a "founding document" moment in the U.S., like the summer in Philadelphia when the Constitution was drafted and after the Civil War, when the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments were written and ratified. Trump believes that governing power in the U.S. should be concentrated in the executive. Trump can prove that this power is already concentrated in the executive by defying the other two branches of government and getting away with it. He is shooting the Constitution on Fifth Avenue. Either the Supreme Court will consent to that by agreeing with Trump's executive orders, or the Court will demonstrate that it has become irrelevant because Trump will defy the Court. Lose-lose.

What will preserve the constitutional order of checks, balances, and divided power? This scenario: A decision by the Supreme Court that blocks Trump; Trump defies it; and then Republicans in Congress stand by the courts, not Trump. It could happen. 

I don't expect it. It is a matter of popularity, and Trump has a cheering section for the actions he is taking, as did Andrew Jackson two centuries ago when he defied the courts. (Breaking treaties with Indians to exile them was popular. Defying Congress on spending and firing federal employees wholesale is likely popular -- at least for a short while.) At this point, Trump is a stronger advocate than either Congress or the Supreme Court. He will steamroll them.



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9 comments:

Dave said...

It makes me think of climate change, using credit cards while going in debt, being on a extended eating binge gaining too much weight.The loss of the rule of law doesn’t hurt right away, so it’s easy to ignore it. Nothing immediate is so bad, I’ll just keep eating, spending, adding carbon dioxide to the air. Wonder when it will be realized electing Trump was a mistake?

Mike Steely said...

Sadly, none of this comes as any surprise. Long before the last election, Trump’s criminality and contempt for his oath of office were well known, yet Republicans revere him and made him president. That was the Constitutional crisis; this is just the fallout. They’d be ashamed of themselves if they had any shame, but they don’t.

Rather than supporting and defending the Constitution (which I doubt he’s ever read), Trump’s idea of patriotism is grabbing and smooching American flags: “When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.”

John C said...

The consequences of celebrity-worshipping culture. Unchecked power here we come…..

Mike said...

I’m afraid Trump may be correctly interpreting the American zeitgeist. 53% approve of what he’s doing. It’s become clear that what the MAGA whackos really meant really meant by their “FUCK BIDEN” signs and flags is “FUCK DEMOCRACY.”

Mike said...

Considering the way Republicans are perverting our republic into an oligarchy, Washington DC should just be renamed Muskow.

Michael Trigoboff said...

Our current gridlock of bureaucratic rules is so complex that we can no longer build anything. Add in polarization, and we may have come to a state where a critical mass of people feel a need to upend the system so that things can start happening again.

If that's where we are, we can expect all kinds of rules to be broken and things to move until (hopefully) things settle down and we can re-stabilize. It may not be pretty, but it may be what enough people want.

As Hunter S Thompson once said, “Sometimes the best thing you can do is find a dark corner of the porch, sit down with a bottle of beer, and watch."

Mike said...

"Our current gridlock of bureaucratic rules is so complex that we can no longer build anything."

That's funny. Not that long ago you were boasting of what a great achievement Space X was. Didn't somebody build that? Sounds like a pretty lame excuse for Trump's lawlessness.

Anonymous said...

respectable, law-abiding people will no longer obey the courts. Once obedience becomes optional, then the rule of law is over. Some of the pardoned J6 defendants are going back to jail on new charges. Until police stop enforcing the law, maybe we can keep anarchy at bay.

Mc said...

Did Michael ever mention that Musk is wealthy because of government welfare?

Likely not.

Michael is rooting for the US to fail.