"It's the economy, stupid."
Sign on wall at Bill Clinton campaign, 1992.
The sign is wrong. It isn't the economy.
What matters is what people think about the economy.
The Wall Street Journal editorialized this week about Trump's tariffs and his pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. The editors think it will cause inflation. The Fed would need to respond by raising interest rates, which will tank the stock market and maybe the economy. They wrote:
“The layers of intellectual confusion here are hard to parse, especially since higher tariffs will mean higher prices on the affected goods. But perhaps the president wants the public to look elsewhere when assigning blame for rising prices.”
Of course Trump will want the public to look elsewhere when assigning blame for rising prices. That is what Trump does. He will blame Obama, Biden, Hillary Clinton, the fake media, China, Mexico, Canada, Ukraine, an uncooperative Fed, woke elites in universities, immigrants, drug cartels, environmental regulations, federal bureaucrats, foreign aid, and every potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate.
We have seen how he operates. When an airliner crashes into an out-of-place military helicopter, Trump blamed Obama, Biden, Buttigieg, and DEI hiring at the FAA.
Democrats need to pull themselves out of their hole. The Democratic brand is a net-negative in enough states that Democrats lost the House, Senate, and White House. It sunk strong candidates like Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Jon Tester in Montana.
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| Party identification switched in 2024 |
I see glimmers of optimism in Democratic commentary. It presumes that Trump will damage the economy. And per the formula that it was inflation that sabotaged Biden and Harris -- not Democratic policies on cultural issues or immigration -- then there is nothing to "fix" in the Democratic suite of policies. They can let a bad economy under Trump put Democrats back into offices.
Not necessarily.
Democrats face an energetic master salesperson who feels no need whatever to be factual. Trump will tell the story about the economy that he wants America to believe. Trump will be the hero. Democrats will be the villain. This will happen. The only question is whether Democrats tell their story with the same clarity and energy as does Trump.
Economies are complicated. Nobel-prize-winning economists disagree. Voters will agree with the clearest narrative that best fits their worldview. Nearly half of Americans will agree with Trump because they are Republicans. He will be loud, clear, confident, and omnipresent. If there isn't a clear alternative perspective, then more than half of Americans will believe him.
Foreknowledge is forearmed. An economy doesn't explain itself. Democrats have been in a narrative blackout for four years. College classmate Chuck Schumer is the Democratic Party's senior elected official, but he isn't good at this. Biden wasn't good at it, either.
Democrats have some talent. AOC is good at it. But she represents a bright blue district and chooses to speak for the tip-of-the-spear left, not for the nation's median voter. Gavin Newsom is good at it, but I worry that he is too thoroughly branded by California. Pete Buttigieg is good at it, but I worry that his homosexuality will hurt him. Billionaire NBA team owner Mark Cuban is good at it, but I worry that he prefers to be an outside voice, not a leader of a political party. I worry that current Democratic U.S. senators are too "inside," and too much a part of the status quo to press the "reset" necessary to make the Democratic brand popular again.
Worry and doubts don't discourage me. The widespread discouragement among Democrats means that the next generation of leaders can start with a cleaner slate. They can advocate change. The right Democrat will extinguish doubts and worries by the power of his or her confidence, clarity, and positions. That is how we know we have the right person.
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7 comments:
Republicans just proposed a plan that will add $4 Trillion to the deficit, mostly through tax cuts to the wealthy, while they distract the public by laying off workers and cutting services, insuring their "government is the problem" trope will be the dominant message. Meanwhile consumers are piling on debt of their own, increasingly for necessities, which has shown to lead to a recession.
On another note, it was promised that prices would come down immediately after the election, something I don't think anyone believed, so what was the real reason a Republican won? Asking for Occam...
This great Democratic leader cannot look at his notes ever when speaking. He must be angry and unapologetic . He attacks , period. His vision is in phrases. His insights are visual pictures easily grasped. His gestures are sparse his eyes don’t blink. He has direct contact with the first camera only.
He does not grimace he is charming. He warmly carries confidence. He looks like a trucker. Nothing is smooth about him. His clothing is from Walmart.
His hair is un kempt. He speaks with a Midwest dry voice sound and accent.
He can crack a joke. He calls out names of people he is addressing in the audience. He knows them they know him. Numbers are in ones and twos ,
There is nothing subtle about his information . Facts are hammers, period.
His speeches are never sermons, no admonishing. He only calls for action.
And never speaks longer than 10 minutes. Takes five questions and leaves the stage quickly to do the next job.He is always on the move and prepares and prepares any public appearance.
During the presidential campaign, polls showed the primary issue for most voters was the economy. Trump, a well-documented pathological liar, promised repeatedly that he would lower grocery prices on day one. What’s stupid is that anyone would believe him. Yet in spite of prices going up instead of down, he has a 53% approval rating. I have no confidence that between now and the next election, voters are going to get any smarter.
Because a message, any message, beats no message. Because the game is attention, not truth or logic or policy.
Trying to play badminton on a rugby field is not a recipe for winning.
If the Democrats’ only strategy is to wait for the voters to get “smarter“, it’s going to be a long wait.
It sounds like allegiances to the parties are being re-drawn:
Republicans are the billionaires and voters who buy their BS. Democrats are the voters with IQs above 100 who can tell fact from fiction.
So I guess that election result really smarts. 😱😀
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