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| Tim Ryan |
Tim Ryan.
Really? Another one? Just a Congressman?
Why bother? Because he would be a strong general election candidate and can beat Trump.
Every candidate can imagine a pathway to victory. Tim Ryan is a long shot but it isn't crazy. He is no less improbable than a one-term Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter, or an Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton or a 2-year US Senator who was previously in a state senate, and who was black and whose middle name was Hussain.
Magic can happen in Iowa.
Magic can happen in Iowa.
American Jobs and Ending Division. Tim Ryan has a niche. He is a white male from Youngstown, Ohio who talks about manufacturing jobs in the rustbelt and about people in America coming together.
This is not a 50-state election. Presidents need 270 votes, in the Electoral College. There are solid blue states and solid red states.The election comes down to about eight states and if the Democrat re-establishes the "Blue Wall" of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, then there is essentially no way a Republican can win.
Republicans who are busy defending the Electoral College are looking backwards at two flukes and generalizing from them. The 2000 and 2016 elections were like drawing to an inside straight, and the GOP got lucky. The real Electoral College advantage goes to Democrats--if Democrats nominate a person who relates to the Upper Midwest. Then Democrats have a huge advantage with an Electoral College system. Then Democrats are the ones who could lose the popular vote but win the election.
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| Tim, Wife, 3 Children, 2 Dogs, Kitchen Table. |
Of course, this requires Democrats to be strategic and the internal passions on the left work in the other direction, toward someone who stirs their political passion.This could well mean they nominate a person who runs up the score in California and New York, but who turns off the swing states.
There may arise a movement among Democrats to elect a generic, non threatening Democrat, someone who supports Medicare for All, but who also seems safely centrist and doesn't try to sell "socialism." In that case, Tim Ryan might emerge.
This would be a person who proved his anti-establishment credentials by challenging Nancy Pelosi, as did Ryan. It would be someone who looks and sounds open to the changing American demographic but who is, himself, unthreatening, i.e. a man, married to a woman, with kids and dogs. Ideally, he would be someone who isn't too young, or too old. Someone who talks about jobs and the economy, as an FDR-style Democrat. Someone who connects on economic distress and populism, not race or gender.
This would be a person who proved his anti-establishment credentials by challenging Nancy Pelosi, as did Ryan. It would be someone who looks and sounds open to the changing American demographic but who is, himself, unthreatening, i.e. a man, married to a woman, with kids and dogs. Ideally, he would be someone who isn't too young, or too old. Someone who talks about jobs and the economy, as an FDR-style Democrat. Someone who connects on economic distress and populism, not race or gender.
That kind of candidate presumably wins you the safe Democratic states, plus, the Upper Midwest, and thereby White House.
Tim Ryan.
Tim Ryan.
Tim Ryan has three big problems: 1. Hardly anyone has heard of him. 2. The people who vote in the Democratic primary want someone exciting in the primary, and that may not be him. 3. Joe Biden is almost certainly entering the race, and that crowds Ryan's niche.
But the knives are out for Biden, and young people see Biden as too old and out of touch, so Ryan may have space.
But the knives are out for Biden, and young people see Biden as too old and out of touch, so Ryan may have space.
This blog has spoken repeatedly of the Seven Things Rule. What are seven things voters might know about Tim Ryan on primary election day? When it comes down to it, seven things are all that most voters have mental energy and shelf space for knowing, and from that they get an impression of whether they like a candidate.
1. He is a white male congressman from rustbelt Ohio.
2. He is a moderate Democrat, but wants Medicare for All.
3. He is a regular guy, not Ivy: son of a factory worker, college and law degree from state universities.
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| From Ryan's Website |
4. He talks about economic distress and populist issues and mentions FDR.
5. He isn't too old or too young.
6. He has a plausible case for winning Upper Midwest states.
7. He can beat Trump.
6. He has a plausible case for winning Upper Midwest states.
7. He can beat Trump.
Tim Ryan has a shot.
His job will be to be interesting and exciting, like Beto, but somehow more mature and safe.
His job will be to be interesting and exciting, like Beto, but somehow more mature and safe.
1 comment:
If Biden enters, there is no historical precedent for any candidate other than Bernie Sanders to have a credible path to the nomination. Why? Because in no primary where there were two front runners polling over 20% each were neither of them not the nominee. The "come out of nowhere to win" is a great American myth where two or more frontrunners with 20% plus dominate the race from the start. When a race starts with a pair of 20 percenters (like Obama and Hillary, or Biden and Sanders), the historical probabilities are virtually immutable: one of them will be the nominee. All the rest is just media horse race hype. Ryan, Harris, Beto, Booker, Warren, and bla bla bla have just one possibility: Biden doesn't run. Otherwise, absent a historical anomaly, it's already over for them all.
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