Isn't the nomination fight all wrapped up? Probably.
But I want to be in New Hampshire in case Joe Biden does surprisingly poorly or Nikki Haley does surprisingly well.
First, Democrats:
Serious newsmagazines are making fun of Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. To remind readers, Phillips is a U.S. Congressman running for president to give New Hampshire voters a chance to show the world Democrats want someone other than Joe Biden. Williams is a garrulous self-help guru, also running for president, for no clear reason other than it gives her a way to draw an audience.Almost no one showed up at a joint event the two of them scheduled. The Vanity Fair headline was "Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson Trash Joe Biden to a Room Full of 12-Year-Olds." Dean Phillips did the smart, self-aware thing and teased himself before pundits could do it by noting that nobody showed up for a solo breakfast meet-and-greet appearance.
I will attend a couple of Dean Phillips events to see how Dean Phillips handles himself. I don't consider it a waste of time. He sees up close and first hand which of his words and ideas get grudging audience nods of agreement, or applause, or guffaws, when he talks about the need to replace Biden. He is doing an ad hoc focus group, testing which messages by a Democrat motivate Democrats. I want to look in on that. Now Republicans:
I started drafting this blog post yesterday describing a showdown between Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Chris Christie. "If something big happens, it will be one of them that makes a big move," I predicted. I was right, but it already happened. Christie just dropped out. When things move, they move quickly.
That means the stakes are higher for Trump. The focus is on Haley. If she comes close to Trump in New Hampshire, a new narrative for the race emerges. Currently it is all-powerful Trump smashes those poor deluded wannabes. But Haley is making a play for independent voters and Haley is the sole candidate trying to represent a non-MAGA middle ground. She has a lane and is running a general election campaign.
 |
| Last night's CNN debate. They bickered. |
I watched Nikki Haley closely in last night's CNN debate. She said something appealing to moderate Republicans, something Trump-compliant Republicans do not say: Donald Trump basically said that the election was stolen. He went on and on talking about the election being stolen. That election? Trump lost it. Biden won that election. And the idea that [Trump’s] gone and carried this out forever, to the point that he’s going to continue to say these things to scare the American people, are wrong."
Saying Biden won seems like an anodyne, obvious thing to say, but not for Republicans, not now. The mainstream GOP is now fully Trump-compliant. In an NBC interview this week the number-three House Republican leader, Elise Stefanik, called the January 6 rioters "hostages" and declined to say she would honor the 2024 election. Indeed she listed reasons she would not do so unless a Republican won.
Haley is now the not-Trump candidate and she has an open lane to contrast with Trump. Trump's lawyer asserted that a president could order a Navy Seal team to assassinate a political rival, yet could not be prosecuted unless he had been impeached and convicted first. It is a breathtaking assertion. Trump sounds manic, desperate, panicky, and vulnerable. Even Ron DeSantis agreed that is nonsense.
Trump also went back to the birtherism well yesterday, reposting a tweet that asserted that Nikki Haley should be kept off the ballot because her citizenship was questionable.
Even Lindsey Graham thought this was nonsense. Again, Trump looks manic, desperate, panicky, and vulnerable.
If she does well-enough against Trump a new narrative can emerge for the nomination, that Haley is by far the surer way to defeat Biden. The idea is already out there that the only person Biden can defeat in a general election is Trump. Democrats are counting on Republican voters to make the suicidal choice for the loser candidate. Haley has a story to tell: Biden is old and unpopular but Trump is crazy and wildly unpopular. Nominate Trump and America gets four years of Biden and Harris. Nominate Haley and Republicans get a 40-state landslide victory along with a Republican House and Senate.
Will Haley catch fire and replace Trump? I suspect not. I saw too many Republican voters willing to stand in line for six hours for the chance to see Trump. But it could happen, and if there is a breakthrough, it will happen in New Hampshire next week.
6 comments:
“Trump's lawyer asserted that a president could order a Navy Seal team to assassinate a political rival, yet could not be prosecuted unless he had been impeached and convicted first.”
What he basically argued is that Biden could do that to Trump and not be prosecuted.
A little reality check: According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll average, Trump leads Haley by fifty points as of yesterday. It’s hard to picture today’s GOP replacing their malevolent madman with an immigrants’ daughter who admits to believing in reality.
I wish that Appelate Court panel had asked the Former Guys Shyster that very question.
" Are you asserting that President Biden might order the assassination of Former President, now citizen Trump, without any legal consequences ?"
Travel safe, and wear a mask, Peter. We need you healthy when you return.
I am suspicious of all the polls on Trump or any of the candidates. The first true test will come in New Hampshire and South Carolina after the votes are counted. Expect a wide swing comparing actual vote tally to every political pollsters predictions. I predict that Trump will claim a rigged election when the results fall short of current political polling results. What ever happens the Orange One will claim victory and he will say he is the only one that can lead the Republicans to victory over Joe Biden.
I think John F is eerily accurate with this prediction.
I don't understand how they missed that question.
Or at least asked about Obama taking out Putin's BFF TFG
Post a Comment