Sunday, September 4, 2016

Watch out, Hillary. Trump has stepped up his game.

Old Trump:  Muslims and Mexicans are bad and scary.  Keep them out!

New Trump:  Only let in people who share our liberal values of diversity.


The old Trump said things that appealed to GOP primary voters who tolerated--or preferred--xenophobia and racism expressed plainly and overtly.   Trump's campaign announcement reversed the traditional immigrant story of America getting the smartest and most ambitious of the world's people.  Instead, he shocked people by saying that Mexico sent its criminals and rapists.  Mexican immigrants weren't ambitious and good.  They were bad.

What then shocked the pundit world was that instead of Trump's campaign dissolving into oblivion in the face of that "gaffe", the campaign flourished.   Trump uncovered an important political constituency within the GOP primary electorate: people who wanted it said clearly and firmly that they were tired of immigrants from Latin America and afraid of immigrants from the Middle East and they wanted them removed.

Over the past year Trump demolished the Republican field by being the clearest voice against immigration, and he frequently made it evident that his objection was only partially economic--they do jobs that native born Americans could do.  He expressed ethnic animus. He protested slow assimilation ("We speak English here.") for Hispanics and expressed fear of Muslims as an entire suspect class of people.  He said that a judge born in Indiana of Mexican ethnicity could not judge fairly.  Trump has stopped talking about Obama birtherism but voters remember, in part because the suspicions Trump raised still linger within the GOP electorate.

Paul Ryan called it "textbook racism."    Hillary's campaign was built around reminding people that Trump is racist, that he goes too far in his criticism of foreigners, that it is unconstitutional in denying people the "equal protection of the laws."

As of a week ago that was the state of the race:   Trump said things that struck a majority of people as "too far out there", including some Republicans.  He kept saying them and Hillary stood back and said, "you cannot vote for Trump."   The polls favored Hillary.

It was working for her.  Now it isn't.

Trump changed his language, and did it very deftly.  Instead of criticizing immigrants for their ethnic and religious identity--the xenophobic argument based on dislike for excessive "diversity"--he has switched to insisting immigrants adopt the values of diversity and toleration.    He is making Hillary's argument  but doing so in the pursuit of the exclusion that his core supporters favor.   It has the potential to capture the reluctant voters who thought Trump was "sort of right" but went too far.  It moves some people from undecided to Trump. It gets him his majority.
Trump asserts liberal values and protection for diversity

 In his speech in Youngstown, Ohio he voiced the new Trump, speaking against the oppression of women, gays, nonbelievers, anti-Semitism, bigotry, hatred, and ethnic division.  He identified Hillary's coalition, called them out by name, and claimed to be their true defender and advocate:

     "Nor can we let the hateful ideology of Radical Islam – its oppression of women, gays, children, and nonbelievers – be allowed to reside or spread within our own countries.

     "A Trump Administration will establish a clear principle that will govern all decisions pertaining to immigration: we should only admit into this country those who share our values and respect our people.  In the Cold War, we had an ideological screening test. The time is overdue to develop a new screening test for the threats we face today.  


     "In addition to screening out all members or sympathizers of terrorist groups, we must also screen out any who have hostile attitudes towards our country or its principles – or who believe that Sharia law should supplant American law.  Those who do not believe in our Constitution, or who support bigotry and hatred, will not be admitted for immigration into the country.  

     "Only those who we expect to flourish in our country – and to embrace a tolerant American society – should be issued immigration visas.  Assimilation is not an act of hostility, but an expression of compassion." 


Will this work for Trump? Trump will have to remember his new lines and criticize bigotry,not ethnicity. He may flub his lines sometimes. And there is lots of video on record of the "old Trump". Hillary Clinton ran a risk when she said that Trump's temperament and values were the reason he could not be elected. She gave to Trump the power to win or lose. If he could fix what was wrong he could win. Trump's campaign appears to be trying just that.

No comments: