It's nice to be King of the Hill. Things get even better if Trump wins.
A reader explains.
Case Study: a prosperous Hillary Clinton supporter writes me.
Some of my readers plan to vote for Trump. This includes people who don't think America is a miserable dystopia of bad trade deals, a bad economy, deteriorating demographics, crime, and international disrespect. Actually they are pretty comfortable and they know it: rich, white, heterosexual. The kind of person that police immediately profile as "good citizens" and who are treated with respect. Conditions are good and have gotten better since the 2008 collapse. So they don't buy the Trump premise of current misery but they are voting for Trump. They think Trump will help keep them comfortable.
And some of my readers plan to vote for Hillary, but aren't in the Hillary coalition of the held- back (i.e. women, blacks, Hispanics, gays.) This group includes some of those comfortable people I mention above. I got a letter from such a reader, and started a correspondence. He told me he is a white male, rich, and retired. He said he sold a business and makes enough to be deeply into the 39.6% top federal tax bracket, which starts at $465,000 in income. He's in the 1%.
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| My Correspondent |
Here is a comprehensive breakdown of which demographic groups prefer Hillary vs. Trump: Gallup Poll
But demographic groups do not cast votes. People do. So let's hear some more about my correspondent, an actual voter.
He tells me he is very conscious of tax rates. A Trump presidency would cut his rate from 39.6, plus various surcharges to 25% minus some additional deductions and exclusions. His taxes would be cut almost in half. He referred me to a non partisan tax policy group for a good summary of Trump's proposal. Click here for a readable summary. "It's pretty tempting," he said. "The deficit goes through the roof, but I come out great. If things collapse who do you think comes out all right? Rich people. I'll do fine."
In years past he would fit the Republican demographic, but in a 2016 he fits the Democratic coalition demographic because he lives on a coast and had advanced professional degrees, the source of his wealth. The clincher is that he thinks religion is a "fairy tail" and he golfs on Sunday mornings after reading the NY Times. Secular, educated people living on the coasts who read the NY Times tend to be Democrats.
He said he watches Fox News sometimes "to see what they are up to" but gets most of his news from sources he considers mainstream and "normal." He doesn't consider CNN "liberal" but thinks MSNBC is. He reads political blogs on the internet and stumbled onto mine and likes it.
He voted for Hillary in the primary, but his adult children voted for Sanders. "I'm practical. I couldn't see America actually electing a socialist. My Republican friends hate Hillary because she is Hillary, but they are actually afraid of Sanders' policies. Sanders said rich people are the problem, which cuts close to home. I think the problem is that poor people can't get rich and that's Hillary Clinton's way of thinking." In the primary election Hillary's voters skewed older and more affluent than did Sanders'. New Republic article
His correspondence with me made an ironic point. "It's win-win for me," he wrote me. "If Hillary wins, the country is a better place, and her tax plan addresses the deficit, so that's how I'm voting. But the guys I'm voting against, the GOP, are working to make things even better for guys already on top. Guys like me. Amazing. It's already pretty sweet to be a rich white guy in America. If I'm outvoted, I won't sulk. I will enjoy my good fortune. They say living well is the best revenge. I'm going to spend the money I save thanks to his tax cuts, at least until the world figures out Trump was a big mistake. That's the message I'm going to send: elect Trump and you make the rich richer and I'll cry about it all the way to the bank."
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| A nice way to spend tax savings |
He goes on: "If a majority of voters think I need more toys, who am I to argue? I'm going to buy a new hundred thousand dollar Tesla with my tax savings and park it out on the street, and then another one every year, put them out in a row in front of my house. I'll put a sign on them, "Thanks, Donald!""
He said that if Trump could possibly accomplish what he promises it would be great:
"Trump says that business will boom and we will have growth of some 4% a year, no sweat. Let's pretend he can do that. It would mean my investments will go up a lot. I can slip $100 to my United Way--solve the world problems with that!-- so I can tell myself that private charity solves social problems, I've done my part. Then get a nice suite on a nice cruise ship and book it for the year, $40,000 a month. They go around the world twice every year. Whatever happens back in the USA is out of mind. Life on a cruise ship is great. Young people wait on you hand and foot bringing you lobster and chocolate 24/7, whatever you want. It's nice to be rich, white, and American. If Trump does what he says, investments go up I come home richer than when I left. If America goes to hell, well, I am in Johannesburg. Or Hong Kong. I'll send cards home, telling friends 'Thanks, Donald!"
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| "Thanks, Donald" |
"Trump says ISIS will have been bombed to shit, his words. Easy victory. OK, I'll take him at his word there, too. It will be nice to visit the peaceful Middle East. I hear Beirut is a charming French colonial city, sort of like Saigon. It will be nice to be an American in Beirut, Americans once again commanding instant respect and fear. It will be like the old days, after World War Two. 'Mister', this. 'Mister', that.
"Trump says America can go back to the old days. I can look myself in the mirror with new self-respect. I am a white male American. I'm on top. King of the Hill. I personally don’t mind if dark skinned people share the country with me, or women get to be bosses, but a Trump world says this is just PC indoctrination. I could get used to the respect rich white guys got as the standard, normal non-hyphenated American, everyone else on the outside looking in, looking up. Like the first couple seasons of Mad Men, men on top, women got coffee. White receptionist.
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| Make America Great Again |
"Trump says he's going to fix the law so churches and other 501c3 organization can do politicking. What's good for the goose [is good for the gander.] This means that instead of giving after-tax dollars to politicians I can give tax deductible dollars to the ACLU who will do my political contributions for me. Currently that would save me about 45% federal, but with low tax rates under Trump it would still save me 25%, which is still pretty sweet. Tax deductions for politics. More influence for rich people at lower cost. Thanks, Donald!"
My need to edit and my agreement to remove personal details from his emails may have obscured the fact that his tone is sardonic rather than earnest, so let me clarify that here. That Hillary Clinton supporter does not seriously welcome a Trumpian return to a golden era of white male eminence and he thinks Trump has no actual way to turn back the clock on civil rights or world trade or to bring back postwar American world hegemony. He doesn't think a president, of either party, can make the American economy grow 4% or defy the long term trends of global competition. And he tells me he doesn't think Trump can actually implement a significant tax cut.
Besides, he said, stacking Teslas out in front of his house would break the rules of his neighborhood CC&Rs.
But he understands the appeal of the Trump message, however implausible, which was the point of his win-win argument.
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