A Closer Look at the modern campaign: Moro and DeBoer

Campaigns are run differently now than they were 35 years ago.

First, let me explain "then", so we can better understand "now".  I assisted in running about a dozen campaigns for local and Congressional office back in 1975-1985.  I was good enough at it that local aspirants for office asked for my help.  Plus, I had a couple of campaign victories of my own and was elected to a local office.   Here is what you did back then:

   1.  You put up lawn signs, in the hope of raising name familiarity and demonstrating support.

   2.  You had someone in charge of encouraging Letters to the Editor of the local newspapers.   Nearly everyone who voted subscribed to the local newspaper.

   3.  You walked door to door, often carrying a big binder with names and party registration of people at each house.  You knocked, you chatted a minute, you handed them a flyer, you left.

   4.  You ran 30 second TV ads, describing yourself.  TV ads were the distinguishing difference between a winning and losing campaign.  They were expensive, so the person who raised the most money and had the most TV ads, won.

   5.  You covered your bases by having some display ads in the local newspapers.

   6.  You raised money from political supporters by holding fundraising events.  You got out the word to those events because your campaign located lists of former attendees to fundraisers which were kept on sheets of paper that were photocopied in the format of address labels, 36 to a sheet.  Plus you kept index cards with names, addresses, and phone numbers.   About ten days before any event you printed up an invitation, stuffed it into an envelope, then did a bulk mailing to the people on the often incorrect address label sheets.

Some things are the same, some different.

Plastic on U-Frame

People still put up lawn signs and go door to door.   The technology of lawn signs has improved.  Now they are plastic and they stick in the ground on a metal frame.  They used to be cardboard and they would wilt in the rain.  There are two varieties of lawn sign.  One is  a plastic sleeve over a U-shaped wire hoop (the Hillary sign) and the other is a stiff waffle board of plastic that sticks onto a wire wicket (the Bates sign).

Metal wicket style

Now campaigns have voter lists downloaded to I-pads, so after a visit the candidate can code how the visit went.

People still read Letters to the Editor but newspaper readership is way, way down.  But Letters to the Editor are free, so people do it.  Few people bother with newspaper display ads.  They are expensive.  Talk radio barely existed 35 years ago but now there are three different local AM talk radio shows in the morning, so people who want to vent on candidates and issues have places to do it other than the newspapers.

Free and easy to distribute by email

People still raise money, but invitations take place electronically.   List distribution is now much easier.  A candidate can create an invitation in ten minutes using Word, then send it as an attachment or screen shot to supportive groups like the local party or officeholder, who can then forward it to their lists.  Tonia Moro, a candidate for State Senate, sent out approximately 4000 email invitations--maybe more--to a fundraising event last week.  (For comparison, in 1980 in my largest mass mailing, I sent out a heroic 1000 invitations to an event.  It took 20 person-hours to create the invitation, get it printed, stuff the envelopes, address the envelopes, delete the duplicates, get stamps on them, and get them to the post office.  My memory is that it cost some $200, the equivalent now of $600.)

Moro's fundraiser had the classic elements of political fundraisers, which to my observation has remained unchanged over the past 40 years:   

***Food and drink at some host's home.

Sen. Merkley mingles

***The candidate mingles and visits and is available to be buttonholed by attendees with some pressing concern.

***The candidate speaks for ten minutes, then answers questions for another twenty minutes.

The "ask"

***Someone takes the microphone an does the "ask", i.e. reminds people that this is democracy in action, nice clean money, your chance to make a better community, etc.  The burden of the talk is:  please contribute.

***A campaign volunteer goes around to help attendees with a pen and envelope to write a check.

Networking by Facebook is new and important.   Both Democratic candidate Tonia Moro and Republican candidate Alan DeBoer have Facebook pages for their campaigns.   

DeBoer is using his Facebook account to advertise a fundraiser he is holding at Hillcrest Winery, a venue about 200 yards from my house.  The Hillcrest Winery is a high status venue, set up for events like this, with good setup for parking, and therefore much superior to a private home if the event has more than 150 or so attendees.   If the event has fewer than a hundred people it could have been done at a private home.

I doubt that there would be protesters or other problems at a DeBoer event, but one element for consideration is whether an event site can keep disturbances away.  Protesters do not hurt an event, if they are at the entrance and far enough away from the actual event that protesters aren't visible or audible while the event is taking place. 

 Protesters show interest in the candidate.   A fundraising event for Governor Kate Brown at the Hillcrest Winery last month had about fifteen Bernie Sanders supporters protesting Brown's fundraiser.  (Brown had supported Hillary.)  They were kept to the street, 150 feet from the Brown event.   Protesters can also attend private homes: mine.   In the Merkley event pictured above three protesters with a big sign stood on the street in front of my house.  They were condemning Merkely's endorsement of a fellow Democratic senator who supports fracking.   

In my experience and observation, candidates generally are sorry to see protesters, but I welcome them.  Protesters improve an event.   They demonstrate that the political figure is taking positions with courage and conviction, in the face of opposition.  Protesters show that the stakes are important and the political failure of the candidate would have consequences.

The Moro event was held at my house.   I hold events for Democrats and civic causes frequently. I know know to do them, I use an excellent caterer, the Jacksonville Inn, which makes it easy for me, and I am attempting  to fill an need unmet back when I was a candidate for local office: a Democratic businessman who said "yes" and then just did what he said he would do, plus write a check.  I sorely needed such a person back then, and wondered ruefully why I couldn't find him.  So now I am trying to be him. It makes me feel useful.

Click Here: 30 Second ad

Tonia Moro has a well produced campaign ad up on TV, showing her amid "regular" people, with a voice over.  If it is available on the internet I cannot easily find it, or else I would link to it.  She doesn't say anything particularly controversial, but she is in favor of good things and good people.

Alan DeBoer has his own well produced ad, which is being circulated on Facebook.  "I'll bring my work ethic, new ideas, and that special southern Oregon spirit to Salem," he says.   I don't consider the content surprising or controversial in the least, but I do not vote in the Republican primary.  What is interesting about the content is what it is not.  It is not critical of government or services.

It has been viewed some 2,700 times on Facebook, as of this moment.  It is being circulated by people of both parties, former office holder who are well known in the community and with big Facebook Friends lists.  The ad continues his "civic improvement" branding.  He speaks of "improved graduation rates" in Ashland schools rather than decry failing schools.   The ad says he will expand funding for education and for vocational and job training.  Yes, he says he will expand funding.   See for yourself by clicking above.

Pop up Advertisement

He is simultaneously running internet ads, one of which popped up within an article I was reading at cnn.com, saying he will stop "out of control" spending.   This represents the needle-threading or tight-rope walking necessary to send the two messages:  expand services with more funding and stop out of control spending.

His branding allows people to find what they want and need to see, a Rorschach ink blot. Although his policies are open ended his tone is clear:  he is a "can't we all get along" candidate, not an angry-with-government Tea Party/Talk Radio candidate.

He is the Republican candidate, but he is presenting the resume and orientation of an Ashland Democrat: he supports civic improvement because the spending is worth it and provides results we like, illustrated by happy youth in graduation outfits. 

So far the needle threading is working.   Support spending for programs but criticize spending.  Of course it is a contradiction and makes no sense.   That is what makes it effective political marketing.  I see no evidence of criticism from the right and it would make no sense for Moro to object.   No doubt she, too, supports spending for education.   She supports spending for the local transit district.   They just passed a levy.   I would be surprised if DeBoer were to criticize the transit district, even though he sells cars.  I am sure most Republican voter voted against the levy, but DeBoer is unlikely to call it an example of "out of control spending". 

The "out of control spending" ad is there to assure voters he is a real Republican with common sense, not a profligate Democrat.  It is just meaningless posturing.  No one will call him on it--including me.   He is threading a political needle and meaningless posturing is how it is done.

The youth vote, and Twitter:  What I don't see,  I don't see.    Each campaign may well have a giant Twitter or Instagram presence, but I am unaware of it because I am not plugged into those media.   I am 66 and my media choices are predictable:   I watch TV, read newspapers, use Facebook, browse the internet, receive emails, get phone calls, notice lawn signs, and talk face to face with people.   

So I can't report on what people are doing within those media.  If there is a giant program to persuade and get out the youth vote, I would not know.  

Click Here for the podcast. Will Trump fall into the trap Hillary set?

The podcast is a spirited conversation between me and Thad Guyer, an attorney who represents whistleblowing employees, with an international practice.   He watches the election from home base in Saigon.   This week we discuss Trump's rise in the polls, and Hillary's having messed up her message on crime.   We conclude by talking about the debate and what would be the best strategy for Hillary and for Trump.   What would Trump do to blow it, and the election?  My own view is for him to look like a bull in a china shop.