Debate: What really happened

Hillary was composed.   Trump had the sniffles.

First, what used to matter now matters less:  news analysis.   The second half of the debate is happening right now, on Tuesday morning.   Voters are hearing the analysis by the news analysts and campaign spokespeople.   People watching Fox are hearing Trump won--no surprise.  Elsewhere, including the "mainstream media", Hillary won.   Partisans found plenty of confirmation of their point of view and they saw their candidate do well.  This is called "confirmation bias".   You see what you want to see.   

Pro-Trump newspaper

Lightly-informed voters don't really know what to think about the debate until they hear the news analysts explain it for them.   Trump says the media hates him and has no credibility because it is part of the cabal of self-dealing elites, right along with Wall Street, lobbyists, and politicians: the lying media.

I have watched audiences erupt in cheers when people criticize "the media".   Trump inoculated himself against this phase of the debate.

What actually matters: the non-verbal communication.   Trump came into this debate as the strong dominant guy, the person who looks commanding, Goliath.  He has been the one who exemplifies "strength", in comparison with Hillary who Trump describes as "lacking stamina."   Trump is the commander in chief; Hillary needs bedrest.   Trump tried to sell this by what he said but the body language confounded him.

Hillary looked stronger than Trump.  She stood erect.  She didn't look tired in the least. 

Trump leaned on the lectern.   He had the sniffles.  He kept making faces.  This is little-boy behavior.  

Trump fed the meme that he is immature, especially in contrast to Hillary, who was composed and poised.   Trump made a succession of faces, which made him look engaged and interesting, but it simultaneously put him in the position of responding.   Hillary looked in-control.  

The first glance look at the debate was a contrast between the big but undisciplined junior high school boy talking with the principal.

That is Hillary's big message, that she is the grown up in the race,  and this is good for her.  

But not entirely good.   If this were a movie, who would the audience be silently cheering for?   Ferris Bueller or the principal?  Who do we like, Tom Sawyer or the teacher?  Do we want Cool Hand Luke Paul Newman to succeed, or the warden?   We like the underdog.  We like the kid.

Donald Trump spoke with emotion and he rambled through a series of complaints, focusing first of all about lost jobs.   He did not voice detailed solutions but he outlined complaints and problems.   He was the outsider, looking in.  

This helps Trump.  Trump solidified the positioning that he was the voice of change and Hillary was the authority figure and the voice of the status quo.  Trump was the regular guy.  And, she was a "politician," and as Trump said of her,  "Typical politician.  All talk, no action."  And she has been there for 30 years, he noted.  You had your chance.

Insofar as this is a contest between continuity of the country's existing political leadership versus "hope and change", then Trump had a good night.  

But not entirely good.   Hillary looked pleasant and likable.   She did not fit the image of the mean principal, the teacher with a paddle, or the sadistic warden.  We dislike the authority figure when authority hides hypocrisy or malfeasance.  Trump made that point with the emails and the "You've had thirty years" comment.  But she seemed unflappable.

Conclusion:  The importance of the debate is non verbal positioning and the big big picture.  The big picture was a reversal of roles.  Trump is no longer the dominant alpha commander in chief.  Hillary stood tall.  We always understood Hillary was "competent" but not that she was alpha, a leader, a person who can stand unafraid head to head.  Hillary looked like a trustworthy adult.  Trump looked like the young outsider, with some good points, but not presidential, not in comparison with Hillary, not last night.

In the next debate Trump will criticize harder.  In the game of political positioning each strong position has a vulnerability.   The vulnerability of being the outsider is that the incumbent authority figure looks like the solid trustworthy one in comparison, which is why Hillary won.  The vulnerability of being the authority figure (as we see in art and literature) is hypocrisy.  We will be hearing more about emails and flip-flops and Bill Clinton's sex life in the next debate.

Click Here for the podcast. Will Trump fall into the trap Hillary set?

The podcast is a spirited conversation between me and Thad Guyer, an attorney who represents whistleblowing employees, with an international practice.   He watches the election from home base in Saigon.   This week we discuss Trump's rise in the polls, and Hillary's having messed up her message on crime.   We conclude by talking about the debate and what would be the best strategy for Hillary and for Trump.   What would Trump do to blow it, and the election?  My own view is for him to look like a bull in a china shop.