Vaccinated? Don't throw away that mask.

Democrats risk looking like the killjoy party. They may be right, but it will cost them.

Now for the wet-blanket news.

Two days ago I wrote that I had my two shots and waited two weeks. Free at last! From now on, I wrote,  masking was just for show. I would be showing solidarity with masking to reinforce a group norm, but in fact, I wrote, I was both personally safe and safe from spreading COVID. 

Meanwhile, in Oregon, I hear political alarm bells. Oregon's governor Kate Brown is associated with a career-killing headline. Oregon is considering a permanent mask-rule. She is standing in front of a freight train.

Yikes!

In fact, the Oregon story is more nuanced. The head of Oregon's OSHA says because of a technicality regarding the length of "emergency" orders by governors, the rule needs to be made "permanent" so it can be temporary a bit longer. The headline was national news; the story wasn't.

Few people will get the nuance. That headline bell cannot be un-rung: Oregon leaders want permanent masking. The people worried about COVID are sick and tired of worrying about it. The people who aren't worried because they consider COVID an overdone plot by worry-wart Democrats, are sick and tired of being bossed around. Lose-lose. 

Tam Moore 2012

Governor Kate Brown runs a risk of coming across like the elementary school teacher who holds a classroom of students in their seats after the recess bell. I heard from a fellow Medford resident, longtime TV and print journalist Tam Moore, a fit man in his 80s, who shared his own story of joyful meeting with vaccinated friends.

We went to a wonderful happy hour of vaccinated oldsters Friday afternoon late -- sat around talking for two hours, unmasked. Noticed that every one of the guests arrived at the patio gate masked-- then as they saw the happily-talking un-masked people inside, off came the masks and out came a big smile.

That's it. That's the emotion of liberation. Simple joy. 

The problem is complicated reality. We still need to be careful. Eliot Nierman, a college classmate, and a physician at a University of Pennsylvania teaching hospital, wrote me a cautionary email. I had described vaccination as on-off switch. Before the vaccination I was at risk of getting the disease and spreading it, and now I am not.  

No, he said. "For now, vaccination is a dimmer, not an on-and-off switch." You are safer, but not safe. You probably won't spread the disease, but you might. 

Eliot Nierman, M.D. 

Not to put a complete damper on what you said, you are much freer but not free. Until we have more people vaccinated and there is less virus in the community none of us who is responsible is free. You can still get sick and you can still spread viruses. Chances are greatly decreased but not zero, perhaps 90-95% getting sick and 80% spreading virus.

I agree it is fine for small groups of vaccinated to get together without masks assuming none has close contact with someone immune suppressed who will likely not respond to vaccination.

All medical personnel in the office are masked when we interact with each other and no one else, even though everyone is vaccinated.

He sent me material rating various activities that I and other double-vaccinated people should feel comfortable doing. Safety depends not just on me alone but on my virus environment, a combination of how much COVID is in the community and what percentage of people are vaccinated. 

Exercising alone, outside, without a mask, is safe. Well, of course. But activities that put you close to other people, especially if they are exhaling hard--shouting, singing, exercising--increases the viral load and risks, and I must be masked. The science seems pretty clear now that one's greatest risk comes from breathing someone else's aerosol.  

If you are doing things inside--like going to a movie or siting in an airplane-keep a mask on. If one is in a big, high-ceilinged grocery store, you are probably OK, if wearing a mask, of course. If riding in an Uber, open the windows and make sure both you and the driver are wearing a mask. Outdoor ballgames are at some risk; the guy behind you might be cheering loudly. Indoor restaurants are still a problem according to the seven experts he referenced, because people tend to sit closely, and masks are off to eat.

The real safety comes from herd immunity, when there are very few infected people. 

My estimation was that in about 90 days the masks come off regardless of science or politicians. The premise is that everyone who wants the vaccine can have the vaccine, and if people want to run the risk of getting COVID, it is on them. From a public health point of view, there is a problem with that premise: the vaccine is not fully effective, and there will be a lot of disease carriers out there, exhaling. 

There is a political perspective, too. People are itching to feel the liberation Tam Moore expressed. I expect that by summer the masks will be gone and there will be nothing politicians can do to enforce it. The floodgates of impatience will have opened and people will just take their chances and let others do the same. The politicians will go along because they will have no choice. The people will have spoken with body language.