Jackson County "takes one for the team"

Jackson County anchors a bright red Congressional District.

A Democratic preferred alternative.

A  "better" Second Congressional District 

I was told to "get real." Yesterday's map was my idealism talking.  

OK. The map above is "real."

There was a grave problem with the potential Medford-anchored map I proposed yesterday. They weren't problems of geography. It was a problem of politics. I created a red Congressional District. The map that I drew proposed a District anchored by Jackson and Deschutes Counties which included the rural and timber counties of Southwest Oregon. I took the approximate tossup counties of Jackson and Deschutes Counties and added to them bright red SW Oregon counties with a forest and fishery orientation. It likely created a second Republican-leaning Congressional District.

My map yesterday had political/cultural logic. It observed that Bend and Medford-Ashland have a lot in common. They are retirement havens. Their draw is that they are nice places to live, and a lot of the income into the communities comes in dividends and pension checks from people who like the lifestyle amenities of low traffic but great hospitals. They are also market centers for the agricultural and forest industries. The prosperous, often well-educated retirees are different culturally and economically from rural farmers and forest products industry workers, and they tend to cancel out each other’s votes. I saw that tension as a benefit to democracy. Marginal Districts reflect the public will as issues ebb and flow. The problem with yesterday's map is that it would have created two such Districts, both tilting decisively Republican.

That can be fixed. 

The map above has multiple advantages over yesterday's, the most important being that it gives both Democrats and Republicans what they want. Republicans get protection of their incumbent Republican Congressman, and a secure District. Democrats get to protect their incumbents and create a new Democratic District. 

Who could object to the above map? It doesn't look like gerrymandering. It is contiguous, it preserves county boundaries, and it has a coherent theme and logic. It concentrates the part of Oregon that consists of farm and forest land. It preserves most of the former Second District, so it has history and inertia.

The counties that are removed from the current Second District have logic to their removal. It puts the grain-producing counties along the Columbia river into a District with the Port of Portland. That is an undeniable commonality with the people of east Portland and Hood River. 

A plausible East-Portland District

The "Preferred Democratic" map with a Medford anchor sweeps up the Republican voters in Curry, Coos, and Douglas Counties that currently risk the Eugene-anchored seat held by Democratic Representative Peter DeFazio. DeFazio is a Democrat and a liberal. DeFazio has represented the south coast for decades and uses his congressional clout to keep their port viable, but a majority of voters on the south coast don't appreciate him. He is a Democrat. He supports reproductive rights. He has support from forest environmentalists. He opposes Trump. This new "preferred Democratic alternative" District puts people in those timber counties where they want to be, represented by Republican who makes no effort to look moderate. A great many GOP voters like and respect that kind of thinking.

Those voters could be exchanged for Bend-area voters. Bend voters are more simpatico with DeFazio. People get the representative they want. Win-win. Who could object?  The map below has about 650,000 people. The new DeFazio district could pick up a few people on the edges to bring it up to strength. This District includes the University of Oregon, Oregon State, and the new Bend campus of Oregon State. DeFazio could afford to pick up some GOP areas to make things easier for a Democratic colleague.

A plausible South Willamette Valley DeFazio District

I had posited yesterday that the country would benefit from a Medford-anchored District that included enough Democrats to require election of a bipartisan-sounding moderate Republican. There is a different, more secure political equilibrium: Draw a District that gives Republican voters exactly what they want. 

What happens to the many liberal and moderate voters in Ashland and Medford, people who vote Democratic? The answer is that they get outvoted soundly in Congressional elections, like now but worse. They "take one for the team," the Democratic team. It is gerrymandering with a soft kiss.

Will some people protest such a District?  Yes. Jackson County Democrats might and they should. That protest is a feature, not a bug. Protests by Ashland Democrats would tend to obscure the sleight-of-hand. They are the magician's assistant. Democrats hate this, so it isn't some clever Democratic plot to protect DeFazio.

Successful democracy creates Districts that have the capacity to reflect the public mood. That means more marginal Districts. I would like to see more of these. But successful politics involves giving people what they think they want. This proposed Medford-anchored District gives a majority of voters what they want, a Republican Representative like Cliff Bentz. It gives Democrats who create Districts what they want: Five Democratic Representatives and only one Republican one.

In the cynical, hardball game of politics, it is win-win.