A Medford-anchored Congressional District

 Oregon will get a Sixth Congressional District.  

Medford could be the center of it.

Something like this: 

A potential new Congressional District, centered on Medford

The map above is possible because Oregon grew faster than the rest of the country, so we go from five U.S. Representatives to six.

Oregon-based readers may be familiar with the map below, Oregon's existing District map.

Oregon's Congressional Districts are--by the standards of widespread political gerrymandering we see elsewhere--very reasonable. There is geographical compactness and a theme of common interests that can be attributed to each District. It isn't perfect. Locally here in Jackson County, politically active people are acutely aware that Ashland in the south-county has very different politics than the north-county rural areas. Ashland votes 70-30 Democratic; Eagle Point is Trump country 70-30. Still, Jackson County is a single polity and they are stuck together.  No map is perfect. Some are deeply imperfect.

The maps below are not a joke. They are Congressional Districts.

Click: America's most gerrymandered

Oregon's present districts have some logic to them. Oregon's First District is west Portland and its suburbs and coast to the west, a place where the urban and suburban people go on day-trips. Oregon's Second District is the giant sweep of eastern-Oregon farm, forest, and outdoor recreation areas, picking up population by including the cities of Medford, Bend, Ashland, and Grants Pass, the cities that are the the market centers for those rural areas. Oregon's Third District is east-Portland and the close-in suburbs. Oregon's Fourth District is an awkward mix of two university towns plus politically conservative rural timber-oriented communities, a mix that already exists in the counties containing the universities. Oregon's Fifth District is anchored by Salem in the middle, containing the rural coasts nearest it, plus the south suburbs of Portland. 

Oregon's 4.2 million people divided by five equals 840,000 people per District.  When divided by six, there are 700,000 people per district. There is no simple logical way simply to carve off 140,000 people from each district. The carved-off group needs to be part of a new, coherent District. 

I can imagine logical, justifiable themes of coherence. There could be a "Coast-District," an idea confounded by the fact that there are far too few people to populate it. I can imagine an "Eastern Oregon wide-open-spaces" district, but that is confounded by the fact that without Bend, Medford, Ashland, and Grants Pass the District has less than half the population it needs. I can imagine Portland-and-suburb centered Districts, and that is what we have, Districts that reach out in three directions.

Southern Oregon--Medford and Bend--have a shot at being the anchors of a new Congressional District.

In the current Second District, Bend, Medford, and Ashland are somewhat out of place--but necessary to get the 2nd District up to population strength. Bend is the center of Oregon's winter recreation. Bend is an upscale and essentially small-city urban enclave. Medford, especially when considered with Ashland, is in a similar position, a small city, based around professional services, although, like Bend, the market center for the forest products and agriculture industries.

A logical, coherent Congressional District would consist of Jackson County (217,000), Deschutes County (186,000), Douglas County (109,000), Josephine County (86,000), Coos County (63,000), and Curry County (22,000). It would also include the Highway 97 rural corridor connecting Jackson and Deschutes County, which would mean that one county, Klamath, would be divided but it would leave the great majority of Klamath County farmland and Klamath Falls' city population out, allowing most of Klamath County to be in the  farm-oriented district to its east.

Look again

The new Congressional District would emphasize a mix of small-lot farms, orchards, the new industry of cannabis, the traditional one of timber, recreation, medical and other professional services, and retirees who chose the area for its small-city lifestyle. The coastal areas to the west are where Jackson County residents go to play, and the inland cities are where coastal residents go for serious shopping and health care. Douglas County would be another mix of traditional timber plus the new wine and rural lifestyle economies. The political tension that currently exists in Jackson and Deschutes counties between the educated professionals with "city jobs" and rural outdoor workers--a split that currently plays out as Democrat and Trump-Republican--would still exist in the Congressional District.

Would this be a Democratic or Republican District? Ideally, people would not consider that when creating it, but as a practical matter, they most certainly would. My sense is that it would be a marginal district, but probably reddish pink. Deschutes and Jackson Counties are on the political bubble of red and blue. The timber and coast counties would tip it red, depending on whether or not Douglas county were included in-full or divided. But there is the challenge for Republicans. If they nominate a candidate who reflects the GOP mindset of this moment: Populist, nativist, and a defender of the January 6th election overthrow, they stand to lose in the general election. The Republican would probably need to be a unifying moderate.

If such a District were carved out, other Districts would need to change. The current, rural 2nd District would have lost half its population. It could get replacements by extending west from Hood River into Gresham and Clackamas County.  What do people in east-Portland have in common with eastern Oregon grain farmers? The Columbia River and its transportation system. Wouldn't that stick urban liberals with rural conservatives? Indeed, yes, but creating more politically marginal districts is a feature and benefit, not a problem. The current Representative Cliff Bentz has little risk of defeat by a Democrat. What we saw in his primary election nomination was a fight among Republican challengers to be as partisan as possible, each fighting to be the most hostile to working with Democrats. Even Knute Buehler threw in the towel and denounced Democrats and displayed images of Trump. In a new, more balanced Second District, a candidate would need to avoid advocating positions that would cause losing Gresham five to one.

Moving up the state, the District anchored by Eugene and Corvallis would still have the conservative rural areas of the two counties and perhaps more grass seed farm country to the north. The two-plus million people in the Tri-County Portland area would continue to patch together three Districts by including city people and their adjacent rural areas.

This could work. 

I hope southern Oregon residents consider it and talk about it and put it into the mental map of the decision makers upstate.