Marquette poll:
Republicans are a lot more enthusiastic about voting than are Democrats.
The Dobbs decision reversing Roe v. Wade did not change the enthusiasm gap.
Marquette University Law School published a national poll on abortion-related voting. It sends up some warnings to people who think the reversal of Roe v. Wade will motivate an army of abortion rights activists. Comparing a poll in May and one in early July suggests that recent court decisions and state actions didn't have much effect on either voters' points of view or motivation to vote.
College classmate Peter Lemieux alerted me to this poll and its finding that the people with the more extreme views on abortion--always legal or always illegal--are the people who consider the issue to be among the most important ones in the 2022 election.
Other findings show an 18 point "enthusiasm edge" for Republicans. 63% of Republicans are "very enthusiastic" about voting. Only 45% of Democrats say that. That gap was 13% in May, before the Dobbs abortion announcement.
There is some better news for Democrats. 34% of Republicans think abortions should be legal in most or all cases, putting them out of touch with core GOP policy, and likely the actions of state legislatures in red states. Only 8% of Democrats think abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, so fewer Democrats are in conflict with their party's policy.
By almost four to one margins, voters oppose state bans on out-of-state travel to get an abortion and bans on women getting abortion pills through out-of-state providers. Even about half of Republicans think that goes too far. This is another opportunity for Democrats if red state legislatures over-reach.
Public attitude toward abortion is closely scaled to gestational age of the fetus. About 30% of voters favor abortion bans even at the beginning of a pregnancy. About 40% favor banning abortions after 6 weeks. About 50% favor banning them after 15 weeks. About 65% favor banning abortion after 6 months, the Roe viability date. A significant majority of Americans are willing to "trust the woman" to make the abortion decision--but only up to about 15 weeks. Democratic principle--the woman's right, her choice--is popular, but only to a point.
Peter Lemieux is a college classmate who went on to get his Ph.D. in political science from MIT. His career is at the intersection of information technology and quantitative analysis. He puts his own analysis up for public review at his website: www.politicsbythenumbers.org. He offers some strategy advice to Democrats.
Guest Post by Peter Lemieux
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| Peter Lemieux and cat Zoe |
I happened to come across this article today while browsing the Marquette polling site.
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2022/07/21/mlspsc09-national-issues-release/
It contains this interesting, if not necessarily surprising, table:
I added the last column showing the proportion of adults who hold each opinion on abortion. 28% think it should be legal in all cases; 8% think it should be illegal in all cases. Nearly twice as many Americans (64%) think abortion should generally be legal compared to those who think it should generally be illegal (35%).
Those groups at the ends of the spectrum place abortion high on their list of personal issue priorities compared to those with more middling opinions. 63-64% of those who think abortion should always--or never--be legal call it one of the most important issues. Those with more mixed options are only half as likely to put abortion at the top of their lists.
I'd focus my attention on that 46% of people who think abortion should be legal in most cases but think the issue is only "somewhat" important. At 36% of all adults, the "legal in most cases" group is the largest in the country, so encouraging them to make the abortion issue more important could be fruitful at the polls in November.
5 comments:
This is not a consensus issue. From a moral and individual rights perspective the only logical policy is a woman's right to choose.
Anything else is misogyny.
Talk amongst yourselves...
Of course fanatics are more enthusiastic about voting - that's their nature. We're talking about people who want to punish a doctor for treating a 10-year-old rape victim. It probably doesn't occur to normal people that such maniacs could come to power, so they do.
You'd think we'd have learned from the gun nuts. Not long ago, who would have thought we'd see the day that whackos could openly strut around brandishing AR-15s? But here we are.
Peter, I continue to be suspicious of early polling data, especially during the summer. Too many news events affecting political behavior and resultant votes cast in November remain influx. Announcing early polling data should be discounted in the poll itself, maybe with a warning that reads (This poll for discussion purposes only!). Constantly thumping the numbers can influence future behavior by encouraging the electorate at large to stay home as they've been convinced by all the talking heads, pundits and political operatives that the results are already assured. Given the methods of early data analysis you could possibly find that ice cream isn't a favorite summer treat by polling only lactose intolerant people! Having studied statistics I require knowing the details of how the data was gathered, the sample size, the date(s) the sample was made, the uncertainty of their calculations, and the methods used in collecting the numbers. I remain suspicious of political polling because it is so easily abused by techniques like push polls.
There is no way in modern times that women can enjoy genuinely equal opportunity and status in social, economic, and political terms without essentially untrammeled access to abortion services. Thus I for one am pro-choice, period. These would-be laws to punish cross-state abortions MUST violate the federal constitution, say the Commerce clause?
I believe that plain talk is preferable to euphemisms here, however. Abortion access confers plenary power over one stage of life upon another stage. In the vast bulk of cases abortion is elective surgery undertaken because the lifestyle of the putative mother is endangered.
So be it.
From a moral and individual rights perspective the only logical policy is a woman's right to choose.
I am a supporter of access to abortion, at least for the first 15 weeks of a pregnancy. But there are moral issues in both directions. The life of a baby is not something to lightly dismiss. It’s not so simple…
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