Notice what is happening in the economy and in politics.
Gasoline prices are going back down. It makes sense. Oil prices hit a high of $120/barrel in mid-June and they are now down 25%. The average national gasoline price was about $5.10 in mid-June. Now it is about $4.44. Gasoline is the most conspicuous in-your-face indication of inflation. Good news.
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| Y-Charts: 3 month chart of gasoline prices |
Mortgage rates are going back down. In mid-June they were about 5.81%. Now they are 5.54%. A similar trend is happening with the yields on funds of bank preferred stocks. They hit a yield of about 5.30% in mid-June and are now back under 5%. Notice the trend. Lower interest rates set by banks and investors are a signal that markets interpret what the Fed is doing to be working. Good news.
Unemployment is very low. It is back to 3.6%.
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| St. Louis Fed: Unemployment rate |
We could very well have the "soft landing" people desire. The economy is unwinding from a COVID crisis, an era of artificially low interest rates, and is doing it while a war disrupts food and oil supplies. Lots could go wrong. Yet American businesses are still making money. Technology stocks and crypto currencies are down in price, but the consensus view is that this was overdue. Main Street businesses are doing well. They have customers to service and they want to hire more people than are readily available. A "recession" where employers have more business than they can service, and employees have some leverage to negotiate better wages, is a soft landing. Good news.
Political good news, too. The GOP is getting tired of Trump. The wins by Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger in Georgia were an early signal. A gap is growing between GOP donors and thought leaders and the GOP base. Murdock's The Wall Street Journal and New York Post ran editorials saying Trump was unfit to be president. They want Trump-ism, but without the tweets, the treason, and Trump himself.
Potential Trump successors are walking a tightrope. Trump's endorsements still matter. Trump is on the lookout for stragglers and RINO heretics--people who say "move on." But officeholders see the ground shifting, coincident with the reports of the January 6 committee. Trump asks too much. The Trump faithful in the local parties ask too much. Officeholders in solidly red districts go too far and say impolitic extreme things. The red states pass extreme laws that color the national brand too bright a red. The safe harbor for most Republican officeholders is to join Trump in bashing Biden, Democrats, CRT, illegal immigration, Antifa, gasoline prices, and fake news, but not to defend Trump personally. Republicans see what Democrats are doing. Democrats are taking sides in Republican primaries, encouraging the Trump base to choose the most Trump-like candidate. The more Trump-faithful the candidate, the easier the candidate is to beat. Trump is an anchor on Republicans, and he won't go away.
Meanwhile, Liz Cheney isn't going away, either. She is on team-Constitution, not Team Trump. GOP leaders say she is a disrupter. She says things they don't want to hear. She is like Martin Luther, pointing at indulgences for sale, calling out the indefensible. Republicans say she is a heretic who sounds like a Democrat and shouldn't be saying it. They don't say she is wrong.
Trump demands the spotlight. He divides Republicans and unites Democrats. Things just might work out for Democrats.
I've got to admit it's getting better (Better)
A little better all the time (It can't get no worse)
I have to admit it's getting better (Better)
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7 comments:
Yup, things are great. Meanwhile, the Republican Party in all of its forms (Supreme Court, Senate) single handedly guarantees that our planet will become uninhabitable to our (and most other) species.
Trump may be on the way out, but would Trumpism be any better administered by someone else? Trumpism is an amoral self-interest that tramples fact, truth, law and rights; a steaming pile of authoritarianism that attracts neo-fascists, conspiracy theorists, white supremacists and gun fetishists. It’s a boil on the butt of America, and it’s what the once-Grand Old Party has degenerated into. A transition from Trump to Trumpism is nothing to celebrate.
As one of the few regulars here, maybe the only one, who appreciated Liz Cheney long before her present role, I'd like to see her stay relevant as well. My worry is that she will seal her fate with line Republicans regardless of Trump's fate by drinking Vichy water on one of those awful Token Good Republican gigs on CNN or MSNBC.
Americans need to manage their expectations. It helps to have a historical, global perspective and to think long term.
Life is not easy or fair. Americans need to look around the world, learn more about world history and stop whining so much. In general, Americans are privileged, spoiled and wasteful.
(I was born and raised in this country, as were my parents and grandparents.)
Jackie Mason joke:
They told me, “Cheer up, things could be worse.”
So I cheered up, and things got worse.
Yes, it feels like things definitely went too far and are now rebounding back somewhat. Let's hope it continues.
I can't help but feel the overreaching issue though is the invasion of Ukraine. It's not just the economic disruption, but the emotional toll on us and Europe after COVID and the Trump presidency. Despite all the government support for the economy, here and elsewhere, the disruption of normal life was only partly alleviated. Our collective sense of well-being was crushed and replaced with what felt like a free fall into chaos. Russia chose this moment to take advantage which is sabotaging what was a somewhat orderly recovery. Their motivation is irrational and their methods are shockingly barbaric, putting civilization itself into jeopardy.
I don't think folks need to worry about Liz Cheney starting to drink Vichy Water once she has helped dispose of Trump. After all, she voted Party Line 92.9 % of the time, including Nay on Voting Rights and a Woman's Right to Choose, before being cast out of her Party Leadership for being insufficiently anti Constitution. I sincerely doubt that her politics will change, if she returns to Electoral Politics, should she survive her Primary this Summer.
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