From: Mending Wall, by Robert Frost
Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed.
Ukraine is just another European border war.
Americans are hunting for an analogy or historical reference to make sense of Ukraine. Knowing that Ukraine is "another _____" would tell us how to think.
Maybe this is another 1938, with Putin playing the role of Hitler grabbing the Sudetenland. In that case, it is the prelude to his grabbing Poland as part of a yet grander goal of grabbing all Europe. Americans know how to think about that. Don't appease. Stand firm now. Nip this in the bud. The fate of the world hangs in the balance.
Maybe this is another Afghanistan for Russia, the equivalent of our Afghanistan or Iraq or Vietnam. That would mean that events in Ukraine are another flex of big-power muscle and ambition that leads into a quagmire for the invader. We know how to think about that, too. Oppose the big power but avoid direct conflict. Send arms and support to the resistance. Let the big power exhaust itself trying to occupy and control a national independence movement.
Maybe we should think of this as another scrimmage in the endless "Great Game" played by nations. The West pushed the ball east, deep into the opponent's territory in a big play after 1989 when the Soviet Union collapsed. Now, the Russian team, under a new coach, is pushing the ball back, having recaptured solid yardage in the Caucasus and now making incremental gains in Ukraine, three yards and a cloud of dust. We know how to think of this, too: Push back and play the game, but don't take it more seriously than it is. It is the endless push and pull of great powers. This isn't an existential threat or anything to fire missiles over.
Maybe it is yet another European border dispute. That is the repeated and endless story in Europe. There is some mismatch between a national border and a group of people inside it. They would rather be independent or part of another country. Maybe the border is a result of some dynastic issue or long-ago treaty. Maybe the enclave is a residue of Ottoman conquest, then reversal, that put Muslims, Orthodox Christians, Roman Catholics, or some version of Protestants on the wrong side of some line. For some reason Catalonia is part of Spain, but not exactly and not comfortably. Alsace is French again. Tiny Belgium has two languages. Switzerland has four. Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, and Kosovo are all jumbled and fight constantly.
We know European border wars are dangerous and draw other countries into war. In 1914 Serbian nationalists killed an Austrian prince, and within a month the whole world was at war. We know we should avoid that, and yet--if this is another 1938--we need to nip Putin's advance in the bud. Unless, of course, it is really another Vietnam, in which case we shouldn't.
The other way to think about this is that border disputes are essentially trivial in the greater scheme of things. Border disputes are local fights, hugely important to the participants, but not to the greater world. Neighbors fight. Families fight. It is perhaps a fight over an inheritance, or some perceived slight at a wedding. Who knows?
We learn to stay out of these disputes. We don't understand the inside of a marriage. We don't really understand just how "Russian" the people are in the disputed areas and whether they want to fight about it. We don't know if the local governments are popular or corrupt. Yes, there will be fighting and killing. It happens all the time in jumbled areas. People will die. Russians will shoot; Ukrainians will shoot back. Borders may move. We didn't know or care much about the borders before; why now? Even if we do care and are horrified by the mutual violence, do we think that our getting involved makes things better?
If people in the Donbas region want to be Russians, in the long run they will be Russians. Ukraine will be better off when rid of them. Governments rule by the consent of the governed. If Russias are unwelcome, or make themselves so, then they will have another Afghanistan mess on their hands. Ukraine nationalism will do the work Americans are tempted to do. People will suffer and die. It will be ugly. That is baked in. This is a border dispute, their border dispute.
13 comments:
What is the purpose of NATO?
This is one view: "...deterring Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration."
Putin is opportunistically testing the resolve of NATO. It's not a border dispute. It's a bully taking a weaker kid's lunch and daring teacher to do anything about it.
I'm all for diplomacy, but in this case I have a sinking feeling that it's just putting off the inevitable. All the scenarios you describe have destruction and human suffering as a result.
I hope I'm wrong.
You worry about thieves stealing pot from your fields. To the people living in Ukraine, this is not just another European border war.
There is no consent under a totalitarian regime. Putin controls the government, the military, the economy, elections and the media. Just like in China, Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and many other countries.
In 2014, the Obama - Biden Administration supported the fascist putsch in Ukraine. I suspect the Obama-Biden CIA were the ones who paid the black-hooded snipers in Kyiv that sparked and inflamed the chaos in 2014.
I have no confidence at all in Joe Biden at this moment to refrain from getting into the neighbor's business. If the military contractors want a war to increase their profits, Biden and the DC Establishment will give it to them.
Whether or not it’s a border dispute, we should be supplying all the weapons they need to the Ukrainians who are fighting for their freedom and their democracy.
The notion that Ukraine is just Putin’s first stop in conquering the world brings to mind the infamous “Domino Theory,” used to justify our presence in Vietnam for lack of any sane rationale. Using diplomacy and sanctions to discourage conflict is good, but getting involved militarily or even just supplying weapons would do nothing to advance U.S. interests – except by further enriching the merchants of death.
Trump would have shrugged his shoulders inviting Putin to be even more aggressive. I’m thankful we have a competent president who wants to work with our allies not against them. The US and the world does not want this to escalate and will try to contain through sanctions. I hope it does not turn into some proxy war with even more killing, but the US may be forced into just that if Putin is too aggressive. I’m glad someone besides me Is dealing with this, because it’s seems to be fraught with potential peril.
Yes the very things the former president tried to use for his personal gain.
As I was hearing news coverage this morning, I was struck by the parallels of what is going on in the US now.
What if the US had states that didn't respect the US government and claimed the federal administration was illegitimate, and instead followed a leader who did not uphold his oath to the Constitution and worked to divide the US at the behest of a foreign government?
Straight outta Facebook ....
And here in the US,the oligarchs control the government, media, economy.
We're really not that different.
US Senator, Chris Murphy (Conn) made a video explanation of the Ukraine/Russia situation on Morning Joe. It answered both my wife's and my questions directly. Putin is left with an all-in kinetic force commitment or withdraw (lose face and maybe power) choice.
“What if the US had states that didn't respect the US government …”
… and declared themselves “sanctuaries” and refused to enforce federal immigration laws?
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