Tis the season to be jolly.

You better not shout. You better not cry. You better not pout, I'm telling you why:

We are in an economic boom.

Ho! Ho! Ho!

Our problems are good problems to have.

The stock market is up. Way up. So far up people are worried. In this first year of the Biden administration, the U.S. stock market reached 75 new highs, with a total return of 25%, and that is just through December 23. 

SP500 for past five years.

This year was the second-best year in history for new stock market highs. Calendar year 1995, when Americans realized that the internet was going to change everything, was a bit better, with 80 new highs. That year of tech euphoria investors bid up stocks on the basis of potential sales. This year, investors bid up stocks on the basis of extraordinary earnings, a much better foundation. Take Apple stock, for example. Sure, it is trading at 31 times past earnings, but those are growing earnings at the rate of 33%. They are making stuff people want and can afford to pay for.

A stock of local interest to people in Southern Oregon is Lithia Motors, headquartered here. The company's stock sells for only eight times earnings, its revenue is growing at some 70% a year, its income growing at 94% a year, and its earnings are growing at 47% a year. Wall Street analysts predict the stock will be up another 53% in the next year.  Are they right? Who knows? But they think the company will sell and repair even more cars next year, and that they will make a boatload of money doing it. 

The U.S. economy is booming. The U.S. economy has grown over 7% in the last quarter and is up 6% from last year. 

U.S. Economy the past five years

It is the kind of growth one sees in developing countries where, finally, they get electricity or a railroad line into an area. America is developed and growth is slower from its higher base. We are getting a boom anyway.

Prosperity brings problems--good, predictable problems associated with booms. These include dislocations from too many people feeling so prosperous they want to buy things faster than they can get manufactured or delivered. We hear people fussing about the busy ports and clogged supply chains, calling it a problem. The clogged supply chain is because we are so prosperous we are buying so much. 

Unemployment is very low. The unemployment rate is about 4.2%, near the lowest in history, and continuing to drop. It is well within the range of "full employment." 

U.S. Unemployment, past ten years

There is always a little bit of churn and turnover in a healthy labor market. People move, they go in and out of school, they change jobs. Four percent unemployment means people who want jobs can find them. Nebraska's current 2% unemployment--and 1.3% in the Lincoln job market--is setting a record. If anything, it is too low.

Low unemployment is a problem of prosperity. There is more profitable work to be done by businesses than there are people to get it done. Good! We hear complaints from small businesspeople in retail and hospitality, and even manufacturing. They cannot find workers when they offer low pay, no benefits, and a dead-end future. Workers are becoming choosy about bad pay, bad hours, bad conditions, or bad bosses. Workers are demanding and getting a better deal. Again, good! That means those workers can afford to pay rent, pay off student loans, buy cars, and get off public benefits. Taxpayers ought to be celebrating. I am.

What would Trump do if he were president?  

He would be selling this as the best recovery in the history of the world!  He would say he was doing a tremendous job. Merry Christmas, he would say. He would turn inflation and the supply chain jams into positives, the sign of so much winning.

Trump isn't president. Joe Biden is. I don't hear Biden saying it, at least not so well that it is changing the overall public mood. I will do it for him. America is winning. We are doing ok. It's getting better all the time. So much better.

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