Friday, December 10, 2021

Hey, Joe. Wake up!

America is back. America is great again.


We need the president to tell us that.

CNBC Photo. Biden delivering good news in Kansas City


This is the winter of our discontent.

Today's top story on CNBC describes a poll showing Biden's "economic approval sank more deeply underwater, with 37% approving compared to 56% who disapprove. . .. Some 41% of the public believe the economy will get worse in the next year."

They report low confidence on the economy is pulling down the overall approval for Biden and Democrats.

Republicans now sport a historic 10-point advantage when Americans are asked which party they prefer to control Congress, holding a 44%-34% margin over Democrats. . .. "If the election were tomorrow, it would be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the Democrats,″ said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research Associates and the Democratic pollster for the survey.

Notice that this article is in CNBC, not Fox. Amid the story of Biden gloom, they report that the economy is in rebound, the stock market is up, and unemployment is down. 

The economy is ahead of where it was before COVID, back when Trump was saying everything was the best economy ever. The stock market has boomed during Biden's presidency. Businesses are prospering and almost everyone's 401Ks and IRAs are up. Home prices, too. The rich are much richer, of course, but the middle class is richer, too.

S&P500


Worker participation rate was a worry, but recently the participation rate returned to 61.8%, the same rate as in pre-COVID March of 2000. Even with that, the unemployment rate has dropped to just 4.2%.

Unemployment rate


This is a Fed chart of GDP.  During Biden's presidency we did not just have trend line growth. We had accelerated growth to catch us back up to the trend line.

GDP Trend Line

There is a simple, believable narrative for Biden to share. It has the advantage of being true. America is back. Government helping out businesses and people in need, when they really need it, is what the Democratic Party is all about. It worked.

Biden need not ignore problems. Jammed hospitals are a problem but by now Americans understand who is on which side of the COVID issue. It is primarily a pandemic of the unvaccinated. The people who want to protect themselves are vaccinated and can live at low risk amid peril. What the public does not yet understand is that this is success.

The problems of supply chain logjams which show up as soaring prices on some items is a problem of success. People want to build things and buy things faster than they can be delivered. There are help wanted signs everywhere, and that, too, is a sign of success. Businesses want to expand and workers have leverage to get treated better and paid more. This is good, and more people will understand it that way if Biden says so, enthusiastically. Biden is the pro-jobs president. He could do worse than be associated with Help Wanted signs. Own it.

We know what Trump would do. We saw it. He defined the recovery he inherited as "carnage." and then after 60 days claimed things were now great, finally, all due to him. 
A trend, not a turnaround

It was brazen, but Trump stuck with the story and a majority of Americans gave him credit. Selling drives sales.


Believe it. Sell it. 

Biden has an advantage. True narratives are easier to sell. Biden needs to cheer up and tell a story of a glass half full and filling. It may be unfair to ask it of him. He appears most comfortable being America's grief counselor. He understands tragedy and loss, and it shaped him. That is only one of his jobs. The other job is to tell us that we have every reason to be optimistic when we do.

Biden is making America great again.  

7 comments:

Mike said...

As Thomas Jefferson said, “A properly functioning democracy depends on an informed electorate.” What we have is an electorate that seems pretty apathetic about an attempted coup, but is outraged over the price of gas. I’m not sure better marketing can change that.

Low Dudgeon said...

The crucial word missing altogether from Mr. Sage's rosy economic summary: inflation. This very day the non-partisan numbers are at over six percent inflation since last year at the same time, the worst (biggest) jump since 1982, when we were still at the nadir of the Carter-caused malaise. Such inflation more than cancels out the gains listed above. Rises in wages, 401(k) balances. etc. mean much less amid mass-printing and spending of dollars which are worth less than ever in actual buying power, for rich and poor alike.

The key question for conservatives, independents, and moderates, plus Democrats like Larry Summers not in nonage to the leveling nostrums of collectivist social justice located at the lowest common denominator, is whether President Biden, or rather those behind the doddering, marble-mouthed husk, really believes his administration's economic policies will lift the lives of lower and middle income Americans, or whether the plan is to tank the economy to best ensure the mass dependence which must precede "transformative" change.

Mike said...

Nuts to those nattering nabobs of negativism. They’ve formed their own 4-H Club — the hopeless, hysterical hypochondriacs of history.

Let’s hear it for those “in nonage to the leveling nostrums of collectivist social justice,” and for transformative change. May this country someday actually act as if all people are created equal, providing liberty and justice for all, rather than simply professing it.

Michael Trigoboff said...

Peter said, "Biden needs to cheer up…"

This reminds me of an old Jackie Mason joke:

They told me, "Cheer up! Things could be worse!"

So I cheered up, and things got worse.

Michael Trigoboff said...

It seems pretty clear to me that neither Joe Biden nor anyone on his team (especially including Kamala Harris) has the marketing chops to sell anything to anyone.

Biden didn't even really manage to sell himself to the voters during the Democratic nominating process. Instead, he got the nomination via some kind of weird backdoor deal with James Clyburn and the party elites.

Trump knows how to sell. I wish I saw some equivalent level of talent coming along that could compete with him there. The last Democrat who had that kind of talent was Bill Clinton.

Mc said...

You can't talk about inflation without blaming corporation greed.

Profits are higher because prices are higher. Gas price increases have nothing to do with climate change mitigation.

Corporate America and churches hate democracy because our system of government means they don't get their way 100% of the time.

We especially need to switch to alternative fuels so we're not paying (as much) ransom to the oil companies. Do you think gas would be so expensive if suddenly there was 50% less demand? No way.

M2inFLA said...

RE: Corporate Greed

Some public companies offer pensions to their employees; these pensions are sometimes paid entirely by the company, entirely by the employees, and a combination of both.

Those funds are invested in stocks, bonds, and other investments.

If those companies aren't profitable, those investments won't grow, and those pensions won't be funded.

Sometimes it hard to tell the difference between perceived greed, or simply rewarding shareholders.

Public employee pension plans are paid for by tax payers and employee contributions. Those funds, too, are invested.

If those companies aren't profitable, those investments won't grow, and those pensions won't be funded.

Several states have pension plans that are currently underfunded - that means more benefits are promised than can be paid for. Oregon being one of them.

Some states also seem to cost more to run than other states; some states are more effective with their tax dollars, while others are not.

What is an acceptable level of greed?