"Maybe if we think and wish and hope and pray
It might come true. . .
And then we'd be happy (and then we'd be happy)
Oh, wouldn't it be nice?"
The Beach Boys, 1966
Covid-conscious Democrats are in a mindset of risk and potential catastrophe.
Sometimes things work out OK. If so, take the win.
COVID steered conscientious people toward thinking about dangers, both known and unknown. Caution is prudent. We could get infected. We could be intubated. We could die. There could be a chain of infection that gets to us. We get vaccinated and boosted. We wear masks and hope the fit is tight enough around the nose. We can imagine getting COVID, notwithstanding our effort. We can imagine COVID taking a turn for the worse and becoming as infectious as measles and as deadly as ebola. It is too early to know what affects COVID might have on us a decade or more from now. Look at shingles, springing back 60 years after a minor childhood bout with chicken pox. Worry.
But wait. Imagine a scenario where omicron is a good thing and it helps end the COVID problem. Wouldn't that be nice?
Smallpox killed about 30% of the people it infected in Europe. Often the people who survived were horribly scarred with pock marks. In 1796 an English physician, Edwin Jenner, noted that milkmaids got a mild disease, "cowpox," but when they later contracted smallpox they survived. He guessed that having cowpox provided an immunity to smallpox. He experimented by putting some of the pus from a cowpox sore into the arm of the child of his gardener. He then intentionally exposed the boy to smallpox. The boy never contracted smallpox.
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| There is a basis for hope |
The early indication from South African data is that omicron causes a milder form of the disease than earlier strains. People get infected, but are less likely to need hospitalization. It could be like cowpox. Or not. We don't know yet.
Democrats need to recognize that reflexive pessimism on COVID is as unscientific as is blind optimism. Infections sometimes become endemic and a mere nuisance, e.g. the "common cold." Omicron is so contagious that it is the equivalent to a program of mandated mass vaccination. Everyone will get exposed. The unvaccinated will get the omicron version of COVID and a few of them will die, but perhaps far fewer than if they had gotten the stronger delta variant. Having had omicron, they may then have the same risk profile of the vaccinated..
Democrats must not appear disappointed if it turns out that COVID disappears and Trump-supporting vaccine resisters escape some karmic justice of hospitalization and death. Some GOP leaders--and some Fox News guests--argue that the best way to end COVID is by the entire nation having gotten and survived the disease. Get it over with! They will crow that they were proven right, at least for those who survive omicron. We will have gotten herd immunity the hard way, after a million deaths, concentrated among the unvaccinated, but, still, herd immunity, like they predicted. If COVID burns itself out this way, Democrats should declare victory and take credit. No need to prolong mandates and controls just because they are the Democratic brand. No need to be trapped by policy inertia and argue that vaccines, masks, and other human interventions alone solve COVID.
The British were saved from the Spanish Armada by the intervention of a favorable wind. The British took it as God's intervention on their behalf. They took credit for the wind. They didn't insist that British gunships keep firing away long after the Spanish ships were sunk.
Democrats should do the same if omicron turns out to be a game changer. Sometimes wishes come true. Take the win.
9 comments:
Some people claim we just need to learn to live with COVID-19 and hope it evolves into something less deadly. That's pretty pathetic, considering most of the serious illness and death that occurred after vaccines became available could have been prevented. A significant portion of our population remains adamantly unvaccinated. As a result, hordes of them continue to die of stupidity. I just wish they would do it at home.
The real tragedy is the devastating effect they’re having on our hospitals and the poor doctors and nurses who have to deal with them.
Science also tells us that a variant could be contagious and more deadly. It's way too soon to be sure of anything, but, as the wise man said, "no harm in hope".
If I read this right the suggestion is that the message should be that we take the foot off the gas regarding mandates and other policies. I'd disagree and say now, with a variant that's less deadly, is the time to step up and take advantage of the break.
Other countries are going this route and shutting down for Omicron.
The politics are moot; the only thing that changes attitudes is dying.
There are two Covid-related issues which are really separate:
* The pandemic is going to become endemic. This was always going to happen and there was no way to avoid it.
* Vaccines, masks, and social distancing can be used to influence the rate of infections and avoid overloading our hospitals and medical systems.
Part of the problem with discussing Covid is that people mix these two issues up and make arguments about one that are only applicable to the other. Things could get a lot less confusing and contentious if we kept these two issues straight in our minds.
I think those two items are very much related.
Also, vaccines, masks, etc., don't "influence" the rate of infection- they lower it.
Why pussyfoot when it comes to proven mitigation tactics?
Nature bats last.
Mc,
The pandemic has become endemic. Covid will be with us forever, in one form or another.
Do you disagree with that?
Michael -
You're guessing, or parroting someone else's guess.
The Mayo clinic says that the common cold, influenza, and COVID-19 are similar, but different.
We know how to treat a cold and the flu, and we're learning how to treat COVID-19.
The cold and the flu have been with us for a long time. No cure, but rather steps to deal with both better. Perhaps we'll be able to handle variations of COVID, too
In the meantime, do what you can to make the virus weaker, and to minimize the spread. I'm vaccinated and boosted. I wear a mask in new places and when asked or required.
The last several days in NYC and Philadelphia have been interesting. Neither the KN95 nor N95 masks stop you from smelling marijuana smoke, nor the vapors eminating from food stalls and markets.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/covid-19-cold-flu-and-allergies-differences/art-20503981
Neither does a face shield nor a cloth mask.
I’ve read this story from multiple writers but none doctors nor have I heard a doctor comment on its potential. I find it unlikely, the process is going to be long. Vaccinating everyone on the planet is the solution then revaccination w a tweaked vaccine. Covid ‘22 is more likely to be the realistic outcome. Stay safe, stay out of Walmart and wear a mask when you’re around people.
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