Yesterday morning this blog warned about the Monmouth poll.
Yesterday afternoon they admitted it was "an outlier."
The Monmouth poll of 298 Democrats said that Biden had collapsed and the race was even.
Maybe Joe Biden will collapse. Maybe his support is eroding to the higher energy calls for change from Elizabeth Warren, or bow to the longstanding passion of the Bernie's legacy supporters from 2016. But not yet.
New polls are out, directly contradicting the Monmouth poll. In the new ones, Biden still has a commanding lead with support from some 32% of Democrats.
New polls are out, directly contradicting the Monmouth poll. In the new ones, Biden still has a commanding lead with support from some 32% of Democrats.
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| Click: NY Times |
My observations on the ground did not weigh Biden support versus that of Warren. But I saw something real. I did not see collapse.
I saw that Biden had genuine support and I watched from close up his presentation three times. He presents as courtly, as decent, not as doddering and addled. He has something to sell.
I saw that Biden had genuine support and I watched from close up his presentation three times. He presents as courtly, as decent, not as doddering and addled. He has something to sell.
Trump is trying to push the "Sleepy Joe" meme. Sean Hannity continually calls Biden "Sleepy Creepy." The New York Times and other media keep looking for signs of weakness, either slip of the tongue gaffes or enthusiasm weakness.
But the reality on the ground--to my eyes--is that Joe Biden is strong enough. Not Sanders with jeremiads angry at injustice, not kinetic Warren, not buff black Booker, not young Buttigieg, not arm shaking Beto, not scolding Kamala, but a candidate who is safe and strong enough. He projects compassion and decency, not "creepiness." He has been through a lot in his life, and Biden makes that into a positive.
But the reality on the ground--to my eyes--is that Joe Biden is strong enough. Not Sanders with jeremiads angry at injustice, not kinetic Warren, not buff black Booker, not young Buttigieg, not arm shaking Beto, not scolding Kamala, but a candidate who is safe and strong enough. He projects compassion and decency, not "creepiness." He has been through a lot in his life, and Biden makes that into a positive.
Experience and decency. That isn't a bad brand. That is what Biden sells.
People sick of Trump have an alternative. It demeans and mis-understands Democratic voters to think that his poll support come only out of name recognition and familiarity. Biden fills a niche, for people who want change but don't want revolution. For people who want to lower the noise threshold and don't have the energy for political revolution. For people who like their health care the way it is, at least for themselves. For people who have jobs and are happy to have them. For people who like their Medicare. For Catholics who wrestle with abortion. For people who like the familiar.
There are a lot of those people in the Democratic Party.
There are a lot of those people in the Democratic Party.
Biden is still in this race.
2 comments:
Maybe Trump is such an an obvious con man, such a clown, that he will be beat in a landslide no matter who the Democrats nominate. Maybe.
But maybe the soccer Moms and Dads will take note that Biden is a big supporter of trans rights, and wants to force their daughters to share locker rooms with males who say they identify as girls. Maybe they will take note that Betsy DeVos is fighting for fair single-sex sports for girls like Selina Soule in American schools, and all the Democrats are fighting against her. Maybe they will notice that Democrats in the blue states have ended Women's single-sex locker rooms, and any man can enter and get naked next to women.
The California Democrats have told me, an older woman, that it's more important for males to be allowed to use WOMENS locker rooms than it is to give me privacy and dignity in single-sex facilities. If I don't like this modern world, I can just stay home, no longer participate in community life. Which is what I've done -- my local swim center now has an arrogant male using the WOMENS locker room, telling any woman who challenges him to F Off, with the full support of California Democrats.
If Democrats nominate Biden, I'll know there is no more hope of Universal Health Care than we got from Obama or Clinton.
But we will get the Democrats' Equality Act, which will end single-sex sports and locker rooms for girls and women in all 50 states.
Democrats are putting women in the horrible position of voting for abortion rights for their daughters, OR voting for fair sports and locker room privacy for their daughters. Can't have both.
We'll see how this works out. Culture war issues can be powerful, visceral.
This other Anonymous agrees with you.
The Progressives should not ignore this.
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