Straw Poll in Iowa

Trump votes

Trump on the ropes? Trump unfavorables sky high? Trump tariffs turning the farm belt Democratic?

That isn't what I saw in Iowa.

Iowa is a swing state, or at least it has been.  It voted for Gore in 2000, for Bush in 2004, for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but for Trump by 8 points in 2016. 

Readers have seen polls showing Trump with approval of 42% and disapproval of 58%. Possibly Trump's behavior in office dooms him. Or not.

The election will be determined by the swing states. I got an up close look at how he is doing in Iowa, a state Trump potentially put at risk with Chinese retaliation against the Trump tariffs. 

Trump is doing OK. 

I watched people put the corn kernels into the Trump jar at the Iowa State Fair, one after another, about half the people. More Republicans than Democrats, and the Republicans almost entirely for Trump.

Vote counts in progress, day 7

 There was a steady lineup of people being handed a corn kernel by an employee of a local NBC station. People surveyed the various jars and deposited their kernel.

There were ample ways to cast a protest vote, and plenty of special reason beyond all the usual ones of Trump policies and tweets. The Trump tariffs have direct consequences for Iowa farmers. The price of American soybeans have collapsed.

Soybeans matter in Iowa. Iowa has some of the world's most productive farm land, and the profitable crops are a rotation of corn one year, soybeans the next. (Soybeans put nitrogen into the soil; corn needs nitrogen; a good combination.) State of Iowa data and conversations with Iowa farmers tell the same story. Between seed, fertilizer, herbicides, equipment amortization, and land rent, a farmer might have $400/acre cost in either crop, with the goal of selling for $100-$200 per acre more than costs. The harvest price matters enormously. They expect to lose money on their crop this year.

Trump has an emergency $65 subsidy available to Iowa farmers, which bails them out and sends a simple, persuasive message:  Sure, Trump tariffs caused the problem but Trump is doing this for the good of America. Farmers are taking one for the American team, but not to worry, Trump has their back.

Aren't they ashamed or feel weird to be getting a government handout? Not much. 

The whole system of commercial farming in Iowa is built around government subsidies and price protections. There are conservation land banks, and federal crop insurance to put a floor under prices in bad years. The government supports the price of corn with ethanol requirements in gasoline. Farmers farm the land and they "farm the government," a well known phrase in Iowa.

Voting

The Iowa corn kernel straw poll splits almost exactly even, between Democrats and Republicans. Among Republicans, Trump gets 97% of the vote. There is no widespread revulsion against Trump here. Republicans are standing by their man.

Is the poll scientific? No, but it reflects the mood of about 6,000 people a day, and organizers monitor the jars to make sure that only kernels handed to people, one per person, get added to the jars. 

What does it say about Democrats? Biden leads. Buttigieg is a strong second. Those two candidates who speak with the quietest voices, are the two most conspicuously religious, both white, both male, the two best know candidates against whom a "Socialist!!" charge is least plausible.

Possibly Buttigieg's performance is a distraction. Possibly the support here for Kamala Harris over Sanders is also misleading. Sanders has his supporters.

What may be important is that many people were content to cast their straw vote for the person I have described as "safe vanilla" Biden.