The Iowa State Fair is on. The candidates are in Des Moines
Political tourism is easy, if you want to do it.
New Hampshire is easier than Iowa. Ninety percent of the population in New Hampshire is within a hour or so of Manchester, New Hampshire. Iowa is more spread out.
The most efficient way to be a political tourist is for the candidates to come to you, and the Iowa State Fair is the draw. It is in Des Moines.
Last cycle Ted Cruz made the point, repeatedly, that he visited all 99 counties in Iowa. He won the Iowa caucus, and that elevated him from the scrum of Republicans. He came in third in New Hampshire, behind Trump and Kasich, but the Iowa win put him on the mental map of voters, ahead of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. Doing well in Iowa gives credibility.
Obama beat Hllary Clinton in Iowa in 2008, where the win in a mostly-white state repositioned him from a curiosity into a proven contender. Jimmy Carter startled the political establishment with his win in 1976. It solidified Iowa as the way to emerge from a pack.
The Iowa State Fair is an eleven day affair. The Fairgrounds are in Des Moines, so candidates will be coming to Des Moines, then fanning out to prove that they are interested in voters all over. Flights to Des Moines are easy to get. Motels in the area are inexpensive--at least by big city standards--with national brand motels in the low $100 range. There are ample cars to rent at everyday prices.
Readers who attend sport or concert events have an expectation built around separation. There are security staff making sure
1. that people pay.
2. that people go to the right seats and not move up or closer
3. that people are kept away from the performers. It is all about separation.
Political events--at least in states where candidates are seeking votes, not money--have the opposite polarity.
News websites aggregate the information on where candidates will be. Candidates want to see you. Sometimes they feed you. Of course they will ask you for money, but giving is voluntary. Mostly they want you to show up, crowd close, shake hands and get a selfie and be inspired.
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| https://iowastartingline.com |
Iowa Starting Line is a handy source of information on who will be where. Currently there are twenty candidates in Iowa. Candidate Facebook pages give exact details for each candidate.
From today's Iowa Starting Line email:
WHO'S IN THE STATE:
Who’s here on Friday, Saturday and Sunday this week? Julian Castro, Joe Biden, John Hickenlooper, Marianne Williamson, Cory Booker, Kirstin Gillibrand, Tom Steyer, Steve Bullock, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bennet, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Andrew Yang, Jay Inslee, Joe Sestak, Pete Buttigieg, and Bill de Blasio.
There are several multi-candidate events to point out and they include;
- Iowa Democratic Wing Ding in Clear Lake on Friday evening
- Iowa State Fair/Des Moines Register Soap Box Aug 8-18 in Des Moines
- 105th Annual Meskwaki Pow Wow in Tama
- 1st District “Passport to Victory” event on Saturday in Central City
- Asian & Latino Coalition Reception at Jasper Winery in Des Moines on Saturday
- Everytown for Gun Safety “Urgent Presidential Forum” in Des Moines on Saturday
On the road.
I will be joining them shortly. Watching candidates live gives insight into which candidate creates intensity and enthusiasm. The successful Democrat will emerge based on charisma, not policy, in my opinion. There is not a lot of policy dispersion apparent to anyone except the most exacting and punctilious of Democratic activists.
There are two main flavors of Democratic policy at this point, revolution and evolution.
Sanders/Warren talk about bold structural change to the corporate and political establishment to unlock opportunities for the average American. They use words like "disrupt" because they want to make clear that they think the system needs to be remade. The other candidates communicate that the system is broken, yes, but they want it fixed. The distinction may be lost on most voters, but it is evident to political activists.
There are two outliers: Kamala Harris is attempting to straddle the two camps and Tulsi Gabbard is anomalous, with a primary message based on ending foreign wars.
Eventually there will be a showdown between the two main "lanes," and a few of the two dozen candidates will succeed in getting people to show up on a snowy winter eventing to vote. Most will not. What will matter during this winnowing process is communication skills.
Who can excite and motivate, and who can stand up to Donald Trump? Trump came into the race 4 years ago as a tabloid celebrity. Candidates have learned that lesson. They want to be noticed. They need to be the Democratic celebrity.
Speeches in Iowa are not a prelude to something. This is showtime.
5 comments:
Charisma is ephemeral, the vaunted "X factor" that determines who gets attention and who is overlooked. Physical attractiveness, but also a sense of self-confidence and competence are factors. Puppies, kittens and cute babies have it, a few humans (Elvis, Ali), but only a few. The thing about charisma is that it has the quality of being able to appear as people want to see, not necessarily something real and that can be dangerous.
Charisma is overrated, I prefer Character.
Frankly, I'm up to here with charisma at this point.
Curious as to your take on PBS News Hour interview a couple of days ago on slavery reparations. It was a relatively long piece. I've heard surprisingly little about it.
Is this because it would be suicidal for Democrats in this election?
Regrettably charisma is important, not because it belies any intrinsic intelligence or capacity of its bearer, but because it is an opening for interpersonal connection. People want to be with people who have charisma. They find it easier than the work necessary to connect with folks who don’t have it. Trump has a strange sort of charisma. Pete Buttigieg says it’s hard not to keep watching Trump, it’s like an Indy 500 race, when’s the next fiery crash and ambulance coming? His charisma isn’t the classic sales personality - people pleaser - variety; he’s a spectacle. Romans v. Christians in the Arena (interesting that the religious right seems to be supporting the Romans in this metaphor).
The Dems however are playing a different emotional game. Biden defines 2020 as a fight for the soul of our country. Booker says the gun issue is a defining moment for America. Sanders is perhaps closest to Trump - certainly not on policy or ethically - but his appeal seems to spur the anger of rightfully disaffected leftists against the Corporate elites. Trump is the Romans against the Christians, Sanders is David against Goliath.
I wish this election were going to be decided by those citizens most interested in the issues, most educated of the process, most mature in their judgments; but regrettably it won’t. It will be decided by a narrow group of casually interested, politically unaffiliated voters in 5 or 6 states who will look up from the sports channel or their reality TV shows and make a snap judgment about which candidate will at least, leave them alone, and at best enhance their lives.
So yes, charisma is important.
Good comments today.
Ya Know, we elect the first African American President, a man of impeccable character, and it was like. "wow, what a great country!"
Then we elect quite possibly the worst human this country ever produced and it's like, "yeah, that's America..."
???
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