Biden was set upon by everyone

Baskin Robbins Choices

That is why he might win the nomination.

Biden is good old vanilla. 

Biden stumbled at the end of the debate. He finished his one minute summation and wanted to tell the audience what number to text to contact his campaign. There were threes and zeros, and he lost track. 

We understand the error all too well. Texting is new technology. He knows his postal address, and probably his email. But text, chat apps, twitter, Instagram, and whatever else is out there is communication for the new kids, not him.

He is old, damn it. Old school. And just plain old.

His Botox face looks smooth and young, his hair plugs have grown in nicely, and he looks fit, but he doesn't look or sound like a prize fighter. He is only 8 years older than I am, and I am cheering for him, but I cannot avoid seeing what I see. He had his turn. He needs to leave.

But he might, instead, win the nomination. Indeed, I expect it.

I saw multiple strong candidates last night, too many for any one to stand out and grab the torch from the tired old man.

Last night's debate

Cory Booker was a Rhodes Scholar. He has been mayor of Newark and is a US Senator. Commentators gush over Mayor Pete's education and resume--Harvard Rhodes Scholar and young mayor--but worry about Buttigieg's young age, sexual orientation, and slender governing experience. But right there, available and ready, is Cory Booker, also a Rhodes Scholar, who went to Stanford, Harvard Law School, became mayor of the largest city in New Jersey, is a US Senator, and is the ideal age for a presidential candidate, 50. He is articulate, liberal, a light skinned black man, a graceful way to bridge the race politics of this era.

He is a strong candidate. If it were Biden vs. Booker, one-on-one, the story would be simple and clear: the moderate old guy versus the slightly more liberal/progressive young guy. 

The matchup would mimic the progression of the Democratic electorate over the last decade, one pulled left by Sanders and Trump-disgust. Biden would have his supporters, but Booker would dominate. He would be the fresh look, the new, improved Biden.

Kamala Harris makes a virtue out of her history as a prosecutor. She sounds fierce. She says she will "prosecute the case against Donald Trump" in the campaign and debates. She sounds like she could do it. Her resume is solid: college, law school, DA, California AG, Senator. She is from San Francisco but doesn't sound like Marin County chardonnay and brie and yoga. She sounds more gritty, like the working class Italian fire fighters, only black and female. Trump can try to make her look like a California moonbeam hippy, but it isn't plausible. She looks and sounds like a no nonsense prosecutor, which makes some Democrats uneasy, which is in fact a strength for her, even in the Democratic primary and especially in the general election. Democrats are the compassion Party, but they, too, like law and order and safe neighborhoods.

Booker vs. Biden

Again, if it were Biden vs. Harris, one-on-one, the story would be simple. Pass the torch to the new generation. Her turn.

And so on. Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, Kirsten Gillibrand each have traditional credible resumes and come across as very reasonable, articulate people, a relief from Trump drama. Several additional candidates from Tuesday night have traditional, credible resumes and politics in that new sweet spot: to the left of Biden and to the right of Sanders.

Tulsi Gabbard speaks to war and peace, and Biden is vulnerable there, having voted for the Iraq war and participated in an administration that has us still in Afghanistan. She is startlingly attractive, which is an advantage in the age of Reality TV campaigns. Trump understands that viewers and voters favor the beautiful young woman. She makes Biden look old, and would make Trump look lecherous.

Castro vs. Biden

Trump will look particularly slimy if he mocks her. Trump knows--the public knows--he cannot just "grab her pussy." She would tear his arm off. She is a soldier. He had bone spurs.

Andrew Yang has a proposal easy to remember--a $1,000/month dividend check for every American. It sounds crazy.  He does not have time to explain that it is not actually unrealistic, that it would replace a lot of the current complicated bureaucratic program-based needs-based programs, from food stamps to college debt relief to homelessness costs, and then to put it into the context of the rights and responsibility of citizenship, and to articulate how it is part of an overall tax and income distribution policy to address automation in the winner-take-all market economy. It is just a less generous version of the Townsend Plan of the 1930's, a forerunner of Social Security.

Gabbard

In a head-to-head matchup with most of these candidates, from both debates, Biden would look old and weak. But that is not what voters see. They see Biden and too many choices. 

It elevates Biden in the way that vanilla ice cream is elevated in the display case. We know what vanilla is, everybody likes it well enough, and if one is buying ice cream for a group of twenty people, you cannot go wrong choosing vanilla. 

Vanilla matches up badly against Trump. It communicates a status quo voters wanted change from in 2016. It communicates lack of progress. It communicates hopelessness. It communicates gridlock. 

Trump would eat Biden alive. Trump would be the hope and change candidate. But the nomination process may march us inexorably toward Biden as the nominee. 

He is vanilla.