The left is feeling hopeful. Trump is on the ropes.
This is not a slam dunk.
Morning Consult does a poll of every state every month, looking at President Trump's approval-disapproval rating. Democrats are passing around a current map, one which shows that Trump has significantly lost support from the time of his inauguration.
Let's take a close look at the two maps, thinking about the Electoral College. Good news for Democrats:
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| Current Net Popularity |
The numbers mark the net approval-disapproval rating. For example, Washington State, in the upper left hand corner is -22, which means that 39% of people approve of Trump and 61% disapprove, for a net disapproval of 22. It is marked in bright red.
Readers can compare this map to January, 2017, when Trump was much more popular.
Democrats in despair and shock over Trump's election may find this startling news. After all, he lost the popular vote, and there were anti-Trump rallies. Yes. But more people were sitting at home, wondering how Trump would do, feeling hopeful. They vote, too, including people in the upper midwest where the states had flipped to Trump. Look also at Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida, and North Carolina, bellwether states. Trump had electoral college support.
But now Trump is unpopular, right? Yes and no.
The November, 2018 map shows Trump has his southern and heartland base essentially intact. He lost ground everywhere, but he still looks strong on an Electoral College basis. Florida and North Carolina, which voted for Obama, are still net positive for Trump. Democrats dream of winning Georgia and Texas, and they had strong candidates Stacy Abrams and Beto O'Rourke there, but both hit their head against a wall of Trump support. The South is still the South. The heartland is still the heartland. Trump country.
With one exception, the Upper Midwest. In this snapshot, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have slipped away from Trump. They have 46 electoral votes total. Had Hillary won them instead of Trump, she would have won 278 to 260, instead of losing 232 to 306. Close, but a Democratic win--if they held Nevada and New Hampshire.
Those three states are the battleground.
The link to the Morning Consult site is here: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/
At the website there is a little bar at the bottom of the map and one can move it back and forth to see the movement in time. The map just got updated to include December. In the absence of Trump campaigning, the map just got better for Democrats. At the website itself readers can see the state by state numbers by hovering a curser over the state. Pennsylvania -6, Michigan -12, Wisconsin -12. Democrats restore their "blue wall."
And Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina have moved to negative to Trump. Even Arizona, Ohio, and Iowa. This map can make Democrats comfortable. No need to settle. Landslide!!
Wait.
Go back to November. That was the status when Trump was campaigning, sending a message of racial fear and arguing feminist overreach, when Republicans were energized, and when people actually voted, not just shared an opinion to a pollster.
Then it was down to three states in the Upper Midwest, and an assumption that Nevada and New Hampshire held on. Those three states were close, and essential Ohio was dead even.
Then it was down to three states in the Upper Midwest, and an assumption that Nevada and New Hampshire held on. Those three states were close, and essential Ohio was dead even.
It is a warning to Democrats who are in the pleasant bubble of blue cities and states. MSNBC and CNN are full of breaking news about Trump misfortunes. Mueller is closing in.The New York Times and Washington Post have stories daily about Trump errors. The question is whether Trump will be impeached, indicted, or simply lose an election in disgrace.
Those blue enclaves are not the whole country.
Those blue enclaves are not the whole country.
Voters in the blue urban bubbles will choose the next Democratic nominee. But voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida, and North Carolina who will pick our next president. Democrats need to win the Upper Midwest.
Voters in those states don't dislike Trump as much as Democratic primary voters dislike him. Democrat could miscalculate. This is not a slam dunk.
4 comments:
Interesting but not surprising.
The aggregate poll from 538.com shows a flat approval of about 40-42% since hitting a low in Dec. 17 of 37%. I don't remember why, but it does show that there is a downside weakness to Trump's popularity. It needs to be said that this...his poll numbers...is the ONLY thing going for him politically. If they go below 35% he will be abandoned by Republicans. It won't be pretty.
If the next presidential election were held today, then Trump would easily defeat any and all democrat challengers. The democrat's roster of potential candidates looks like Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (without the lovely Snow White). It's ridiculously shallow, containing a bunch of inept media hounds with no legislative successes. The democrats don't care about Joe American. They're more concerned with "Jose from the Third World". Democrats have sold-out Americans.
Americans want results which will better their lives. They don't want to be enslaved with more restrictive government.
If Biden runs (which is to be determined soon), then he'll be the democrat's candidate, and Trump will beat him like a rug.
It would be nice if our Presidential elections could be held in 2 months. One for the primaries and one for the general. I am sure it won't happen as it would put too many folks out of work.
Bill H.
Peter has kind of answered my question as to who Dems need most to win over trump, moderate dems or left progressives. We need the midwest, and moderate dems the most, in those states. Naturally, both sides would be nice. We still have an electoral college.
So, unless trump is indicted or removed or resigns, we will have to beat trump in 2020.
So I agree with another commentator that Biden could not do it. Someone with no real name familiarity also would struggle uphill. I still think that Elizabeth Warren could pull it off. She originally comes from one of those red states, speaks of progressive issues, but has a sense of identification with the working folks.
It still blows my mind that there are still almost 40 percent of people approving of trump!!
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