Lurking. Stalking. Waiting.
"President Trump was asked by Fox News if he is worried about Gov. John Kasich or others challenging him in the 2020 Republican Primary. His response: 'I hope they do.' Team Kasich's response: 'Be careful what you wish for!'"
From a recent Kasich fundraising letter.
John Kasich has a strategy and it is not a hopeless one.
It requires Trump to fail.
Readers not on John Kasich's mailing list may be unaware that he is actively promoting himself as both a loyal Republican and alternative to Trump. His path to victory requires a disorderly end to the Trump presidency. Trump is a disorderly person.
Kasich just got a CNN gig. That puts him in they public eye, although not with the right network. CNN gives a platform to talk to people disgusted by Trump, i.e. people who don't vote in Republican primary elections.
Kasich relentlessly sends out policy statements and fundraising appeals. I am on his list.
Kasich relentlessly sends out policy statements and fundraising appeals. I am on his list.
Kasich has a theme. Good government. Compromise. Be prudent. Be grown up. Don't say racist, xenophobic things. Be a good Christian.
Example:
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| Kasich new role |
And, in response to Trump's oval office speech:
"The President and the Democrats need to learn how to compromise and put the American people first. It starts with the President putting the country ahead of his politics and being more flexible with his goals."
Messages like that. Then buttons to push to give money.
The political landscape for Republicans is simple. Trump is the star. He owns the GOP. People who have openly opposed him lose primary races.
The Cook Political Report sums up the situation: "Trump's approval rating among Republicans has never dropped below 77 percent and sometimes reached as high as 91%. Trump is not hemorrhaging among his fellow Republicans, though we may be seeing a bit of erosion."
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| New Website |
If Trump announces that his work is done and that he won't run for re-election, and leaves with head held high, then we could have an open primary battle between the dishwater dull Pence and the charismatic Haley. It would be an exciting contest. Haley is Sarah Palin, but with brains. She sounds like a populist. Pence sounds like an establishment puppet. Still, Pence has the head start and Pence is a white male in a party most comfortable with white males in power and women in support roles.
Kasich's path to victory: Trump in disgrace.
If Trump is in the position that Nixon was prior to his resignation--holding on but being abandoned by Republicans--or in the position that George Bush was in November, 2008--amidst a financial collapse--then Republican voters may be looking for a dignified, qualified alternative to Trump, someone like Kasich. Someone not tainted.
Kasich would have a single rival, Mitt Romney. Both would represent a retreat from Trump high drama and it would be an election do-over. Romney is better known, but Trump has labeled him a "loser." Romney is a Mormon. There is a great deal more anti-Mormon sentiment among Christians than I had understood in 2012. The Christian evangelical vote is crucial in the GOP primary, and Kasich does not force them to choose between a Mormon and a Democrat. It could be a factor.
What has to happen for Kasich to have a chance? Mueller needs to have found something really embarrassing on Trump or the Trump family, or we need to have a financial or global crisis that appears to be Trump's fault. Or both.
It could happen.
3 comments:
I occasionally like a bowl of oatmeal for breakfast, but I wouldn't want to have it everyday.
Yes, great observation that Kasich is positioning himself as the "logical alternative" to Trump. The question is what Republican party will he be representing? There are three now claiming the name, none of which has a plurality. Without support of at least two of them no Trump challenger will be able to win.
The first is DC establishment, a snakepit. Who amongst them will endorse Kasich? Graham? Grassley? Many of them are eyeing the same job, and are holding their powder until they reckon Trump is down for the count. Watch out for the stampede when and if that happens.
The second is DNC Republicans, Chamber of Commerce types who are most likely to get behind him, if as you posit, Trump's re-elctablity looks weak.
And finally, Trumplicans, which raises the question that asks if any Republican can win at all without wooing this sad bunch, and that means signing on to all manner of conspiracy fantasies, covert and overt bigotry, and general looniness. By taking the CNN gig the governor looks to be calculating he can distance from them.
Kasich has very little support among most republicans, and if Trump were to not run again, then republicans would not choose Kasich to fill the void.
The Rogue Valley has the highest concentration of truly stupid liberals and snowflakes I’ve ever witnessed.
You have a transient problem, so you accommodate them with free homes, free food, free laundry and even free haircuts. Then you see a spike in violence, sex, drug and property crimes, so you need to build a new $100 million jail!
For being so “poor”, how come all those transients have smartphones to let their friends know this is a ripe destination to exploit?
You reintroduce wolves, then you have to pay for dead livestock and all the costs associated with relocating and controlling them.
You stop most logging operations with lawsuits, then you discover the woods are congested with undergrowth so dense we cannot stop the easily predictable wildfires that fill the valley with dense, unhealthy smoke each summer.
You want guns in homes locked up, so when we suffer a home invasion robbery or a rapist, we’ll have no immediate way to defend ourselves.
Just wait until that onerous PERS tax bill arrives! Oregon is bankrupt.
As I’ve written before, liberals ruin everything they touch.
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