Star Quality

Martin O'Malley drops out and endorses Beto.  Attack on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez video backfires.

Politics is show business.

If a politician says something important in the forest, and no one hears him say it, was anything actually said?

Not that anyone noticed or cared.

Paid staff. No one else cared.

In September 2015, I watched Martin O'Malley and Lincoln Chaffee speak at a convention of New Hampshire Democrats. Hundreds of people had heard and cheered Hillary Clinton and then Bernie Sanders. They walked out during O'Malley's speech. The hockey arena was nearly empty for Chafee.

O'Malley and Chafee said essentially the same thing as Hillary. So what?  O'Malley had cheering volunteers and lots of signs outside, Chaffee did not. It didn't matter either way. 

Donald Trump had his first speech in New Hampshire the same week. Three thousand people were there. People turned out to see a celebrity. He had been on TV. Trump was a thing.

Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Maryland, is back. He has been getting around in Iowa in 2018, considering a 2020 race. He just dropped out. He understood reality. He endorsed Beto O'Rourke, a politician who is identifiable with a single word, "Beto," like Cher, or Prince, or Shaq. 

Beto is a star. 

Someone did Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a favor and thought to mock her and a video she had appeared in as a 20 year old student at Boston University. Someone tweeted 'Look at that silly new Member of Congress!'  Just like the Fox News hit piece on her being unable to afford an apartment in DC, the attack backfired.

 It drew attention to the video. It is a student music dance video. She is young, beautiful, active. There is an unsaid message. Contrast her with the old guard of mature politicians of both parties, seventy year olds making government a metaphor for a constipation ad on television. 

She dances with enthusiasm and looks great while doing it. We watch. 

She has a priceless advantage over Martin O'Malley. 

People won't walk out of the room while she speaks.

Click. The attack made the video go viral.

She is a thing. Beto is a thing.

There is pundit talk of "top tier" candidates. They are not top tier because what they are saying is so different from what others are saying. There are really only two flavors of Democratic ice cream: liberal progressive and centrist, and even these two flavors agree on the eventual goals (though not on the primary impediment to the goal.) 

Top tier candidates are different because they have name recognition and celebrity. 

Joe Biden has a shot. He is famous. If he announces, he has a short window of time to use that fame to show that he is really interesting after all--more interesting than we had thought--and that he says interesting things in an interesting way. Maybe Democrats will see in him a scrappy guy we can trust to fight for change, not the status quo. We think we have seen his act, but it was as a second banana to Obama. Do we want to see a spinoff show, the familiar star in an appealing new role?

Bernie Sanders has a shot. He is famous and has a base. He has his schtick, the cranky older uncle who shakes his fist and tells the truth about the country. We have heard it. Some love it, some don't. Voters will decide if we want to hear it throughout a long campaign and presidency. 

Elizabeth Warren has a shot. She is semi famous, but known where she needs to be, among activists. She comes across as fifteen years younger than Bernie, although she isn't. She is give 'em hell Elizabeth. She will cannibalize Bernie's vote. Many will consider her more likable than Hillary and more electable.  She didn't give speeches to Goldman Sachs, nor have an email server to explain. The fact that she is compared favorably to Hillary is a good thing, but the fact that she is compared to her at all is bad.

Beto has a shot. Age 46 is a good age. He got attention and he raised serious presidential money from the internet. Maybe he is populist progressive. Maybe he is Texas-acceptable centrist. Maybe his message will sound like Biden's, delivered with youthful energy so it sounds to the ear as progressive.  Win-win for him. He is young and new and undefined. There is a Bobby Kennedy style to him. People may trust his instincts. He looks good on TV, and people may be willing to check out his show.

There are others--Swalwell, Booker, Harris, Merkley, Hickenlooper, Landrieu, Steyer, Bloomberg, and more. The billionaires have money to make them famous but being famous does not make someone interesting and attractive, a celebrity. 

It isn't fair, but we like to watch Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dance. We don't want to watch John Delaney dance.  

John Delaney?  Who is John Delaney? 

He is an active and long announced candidate for president. He is a three term congressman from Maryland, a self made multimillionaire, a graduate of Columbia and Georgetown Law, married, no scandals, age 56, and he is in Iowa campaigning and he has a staff of 30 people on the job today in Iowa. 

[FYI:  Delaney is a pro-choice, LGBT-friendly, anti-gun Democratic moderate, who wants more bi-partisanship. He says he wants single-payer and universal health care, but wants to get to that goal incrementally and currently opposes medicare for all. He wants "comprehensive immigration reform," and a path to citizenship for the eleven million people here illegally.]

Did any reader care much? 

Would readers rather drive across town to hear him--or to Beto or Ocasio-Cortez?

Trump got their attention.

The nomination and election of Donald Trump taught Americans a lesson. A great many Americans find politics boring or distasteful, but a candidate who can draw attention because of celebrity or the vividness of his or her presentation can motivate voters. They get on TV. Pundits talk about them. They are a thing. They can make their case.

Trump was a tabloid celebrity, and he had a reality TV show. Republicans heard him and responded.

The Democrat who wins in Iowa and New Hampshire will have star quality. Otherwise they won't be noticed within the crowd.