The underlying message of Greek tragedies is not to overplay your hand.
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| "Border Security" |
They might not.
At long last Americans are getting some glimmer of talk of re-opening the government. Trump is indignant that he is accused of demanding a high concrete wall that Mexico would pay for. We are now hearing about border security.
Trump, standing in the snow this morning said, "This is so simple. All the Democrats have to do is say 'border security."
The words border security give everyone a chance to save face and claim victory. This will be a messy, incomplete win for each side, and that is a problem. Partisans on either side may not let it happen.
Trump is under pressure. Polls show 64% of Republicans "strongly support" building a border wall and another 20% somewhat approve: 84%. Trump created a monster for himself. Among that 64% is the talk radio/Fox News base that Trump absolutely needs as his impeachment firewall in the event Mueller presents something actionable .Trump must be able to claim victory. His ego demands it. His base demands it. Social media is abuzz. No compromise! "Pissed off Granny" tweets at the thought that Trump might compromise: "You are not getting a wall!!!!!" Whatever happens on "border security," Trump will call it a wall and a great win. Democrats must accept that.
Meanwhile, Democrats. They, too, are under pressure to win.
The Bernie/Hillary fight and the new focus on discontent over income distribution forced Democrats generally to move populist left and talk tough. Bi-partisanship has been re-defined as selling out, of being corporate. The Obama presidency is being re-defined in Democratic memory, from beloved to something less. He is now observed to be an incrementalist. He didn't jail bankers. He let continue a trend where the rich got richer. We are still fighting in Afghanistan.
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| Democratic activist mood |
Democrats are now insisting on the promised hope and change. Obama wasn't good enough.
Social media reveals the mood of leftist activism A reader in southern Oregon sent me this, in an email with the subject "Give Trump the Finger!
"He closes down the government. He wants his wall with no compromise. Let the Republicans sizzle. Wait him out until the government checks don’t arrive for the second time. Let Republicans open the government. Stand and watch. Keep passing the same offer over and over again...DACA + 1.5 billion. Let the Republicans Senate kill it over and over again. The people will rise up when the garbage is piled higher and deeper and the law suits start in. When food stamps don’t come. When tax returns are not issued. Waiting game, don’t blink. Give him the finger."
Democrats who got elected are under pressure to please people like "Ralph." He shows up at events. He votes. He talks and writes.
Democrats are at risk of looking intransigent, of appearing to abandoning compassion for DACA and their long term goals, all in order to spite Trump. Plus, they are at risk of losing their rationale for holding out, that a wall is a flagrant waste of money. Trump, at his press meeting in the snow this morning, made the point that Democrats previously supported border walls, but all of a sudden they don't, that people are hurt by closed government, and that it is entirely the fault of Democrats.
He teed up a fourth item that should be a distant warning for Democrats: that the economy is currently strong. Recessions happen. Bear stock markets happen. Trump is looking for someone to blame when things falter. A government shutdown is an excuse to blame Democrats. Trump is a master of deflection and blame.
So far, Democrats have a winning hand. The public blames Trump, but time will cause voters to think "a pox on both houses." Democrats can fund "border security" and save face, and they can extract something very popular, protection for DACA. They should do it. They should take "yes" for an answer.
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| 2016 |
Another reader sent me this warning about Democratic over-reach.
"Once $5 billion in lost tax revenues occurs (early next week), the argument that wall funding is wasteful becomes preposterous-- Democrats can't sell fiscal concern in denying Trump $5 billion as the shutdown costs soar far beyond that. Is it not fiscal idiocy to incur a $15billion loss to avoid paying a $5 billion ransom? When the fiscal justification evaporates, Democrats will be left with the wall is "immoral" mantra, which only the left fringes believe. They better find that way out of the shutdown before stressed federal workers and service recipients hang our whole party out to dry."
Democrats need to cash in their chips, take a solid win, make a deal, protect DACA youth and federal workers, open up the government, and look like the grownups.
Trump will say he won, and he will get a few more miles of wall and the hassles of trying to build it.
Democrats will say they won, and they will have protected a million and a half kids, and look good doing it.
2 comments:
This isn't about the wall, or finding compromises, it's about checks and balances.
After the midterms even some Republicans are now standing up to a president who has proven himself to be a danger to the country. He and his enablers, despite all the noise, do not represent the majority, but more importantly do not represent the values they are attempting to usurp. It's not about the money either. The economy can take a 5bil hit, and it's not clear who will be held responsible as finger pointing will continue. Democrats and increasingly, some Republicans have chosen this as a first salvo to re-balance the power in DC. One way to look at it is that they have maneuvered Trump into a corner and now he will have to let down his base to get out of it, with a subsequent loss of popularity and perhaps the abandonment by a fickle constituency.
I think Democrats have the high ground now, both politically and in terms of values. We'll see if they can hold it.
As a self-avowed "Berniecrat," I don't always find myself agreeing with Peter. On "border security," however, I think he is on to something in terms of everyone "saving face."
The caveat would be, however, that DACA be non-negotiable and that the "wall" consist of consist of increase border security/monitoring. Trump can boast that he "got what he wanted," but, absent a physical wall, anyone with half a brain will see through that. The Dems can tout DACA and report that secondarily "of course, they believe in secure borders." Trump will be seen as merely treading water while the Dems can campaign on their DACA success.
Andy Seles
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