GOP Populism

We are witnessing right wing populism in ascendancy. 

Trump is an expression of it. The world has seen this before.

In Oregon, the current arena of populist struggle is over who leads the Oregon Republican Party.

Populist charge: They are the "Ruling Class."

The existing Oregon Republican party leadership supported moderate Knute Buehler. That created a populist backlash, led by Sam Carpenter who created a slate of officers to replace them.

Buehler wanted reforms and improvements--of the status quo. He sought and received contributions from powerful businesses. He was "moderate" on sanctuary cities and abortion, supporting the ballot issues to limit both, but in a qualified way, as eager to show his reluctance as his full throated support. He is a physician and Rhodes Scholar. He kept Trump at arms length.

As defined by the people hoping to replace them, Buehler and the current Party leaders are the Establishment. That makes them the bad guys.

They may be replaced by Carpenter's slate. They represent the talk radio, Fox News,Tea Party, social conservative portion of the GOP electorate hungering for someone to voice their grievance and resentments about uncomfortable social and economic changes. 

Carpenter complains bitterly that there is a "Ruling Class" who connived against him to snatch the election from him, an election he deserved to win. He says he represents "the people," the 90% of GOP voters who he says like Trump, and who dislike Trump's targets: Democrats, Obama, the Clintons, abortion, sanctuary cities, proud gays, immigrants here without documentation, and apologists for a less than exceptional and God-blessed America. He praises Trump without qualification.

He is a populist leading a populist revolt within the GOP--just as Trump had done.

Click: Establishment vs. Populist

The national arena. This showdown between Establishment and Populist, is going on nationally. Mitt Romney, now a Senator, openly criticizes Trump. It is old-style respectable, anti-deficit, conservative, institution-supporting Republicanism versus Trump's right wing populism. Romney is an archetype for Establishment respectability.

Romney isn't the only voice, but he is a new, powerful one. John Kasich has been attempting to be noticed as he protests Trump's tone and targets. Kasich has been sending up complaints, comments, and fundraising appeals for two years, with the tiniest of notice. Kasich campaigned in Oregon in May, 2016. Trump got 6 times as many votes. Kasich is ignored. Romney made headlines. 

The local arena. Jessica Gomez, a GOP candidate for state senate in a southern Oregon district, understood the populist subtext in her own race. She wrote me:

"Regarding the district 3 Senate primary election results, I believe the close outcome had less to do with whether I was conservative enough, and more to do with whether I was populist enough.  In truth, Curt [Ankerberg, her GOP primary opponent] is not all that socially conservative, but he exudes a whole lot of angry populist rhetoric that resonates with many people on the right who are frustrated with our current system. He was there to fight the “old boys network”. My involvement in the business community and Chamber Of Commerce made me one of the “old boys.”

Small city Establishment

I agree. 

In the context of small city America, the local Chamber of Commerce represents the Establishment. She is a successful business owner. She is a reformer, not a disrupter. She wants people to get along. She took establishment money. That makes her Establishment. 

It nearly sunk her in the primary election.

At this moment, Republican populism is powerful, and possibly still ascendant. The reluctance of sitting Republican officeholders to take on Trump demonstrates how powerful that movement is. I consider Kasich's failure to get traction over the past two years a signal that the GOP was not ready to retreat from populism. 

I also consider Romney's headlines a signal, albeit a subtle one, that maybe a counter-trend is possible. But there is no particular courage shown here. Romney is starting a 6 year term and he represents Utah. Romney is bulletproof. 

What happens in Oregon will be a clearer signal. We will learn in February if the existing leadership team of the GOP can hold on. Carpenter predicts he will oust them.

Trump took over the GOP by attacking the familiar targets of right wing populism seen around the world and through history: ethnic outsiders, people seen as irregular, foreign influences, crime, and the victimhood of the forgotten people by the elites who tolerate (and secretly empower) those threats to the nation. The psychological centerpiece of right wing populism is resentment over impurities troubling the people. 

Example: A majority of Republicans were ready to believe that Obama was a black, foreign born Muslim who hated America. Trump has a constituency.

Tomorrow: a look at Democratic populism. Hint: Sanders voiced it. Now so is Elizabeth Warren, with a capitalist twist.