It is pretty simple: Republican voters are happy with Trump

Democrats who are appalled and offended by Trump have a hard time noticing that Trump is popular among Republicans.

It is a common refrain: "How can GOP officeholders stand by silently and thereby enable Trump?  Aren't they appalled?  Aren't they outraged?"

Not so much.

Republican officeholders (other than Bob Corker and Jeff Flake, two senators who are abandoning their seats because they know they would lose a primary election) are generally standing by their man.  Recent Pew research polls show why.    Click Here: NPR/Pew    GOP voters are happy.  The stock market is up. (Continued up.) Unemployment is down to 4.1% (Continued down.)

Asked, "Thinking about Trump's first year in office, do you approve or disapprove of his handling of _____________?"

Health Care Approval Rating

In the conventional wisdom of Democrats and the media, Trumps handling of health care was an obvious failure. He, and Republicans, could not agree on a repeal-and-replace.  It was a disaster, right?   Not to Republican voters.  75% approval among Republicans.

Again, the conventional wisdom is that Trump's handling of immigration has been a public relations and legal failure.  He has said outrageous things, the courts have blocked him, and Congress has done nothing other than shut itself down in deadlock.  Disaster, right?  Not to Republican voters.  80% approval.

Immigration Approval Rating

Surely, in the minds of Democrats, there would be bi-partisan disapproval of Trump's taunting and name calling of Kim Jong-un of North Korea, with tweets and insults and provocations.  Surely this goes too far.  After all, there is near universal disapproval within the military/diplomatic/foreign policy establishment, and in the media.  But Republican voters apparently like what they see, with 71% approval.

North Korea Approval Rating

Trump's personal behavior, his tweets, his manner all grate on the nerves of Democrats and Independents, but not Republicans.  Either they like what Democrats consider outrageous, or they can ignore it.  It is pretty simple:  there is a partisan divide.

This has some implications for Republican candidates in state and local elections in 2018.  I observe highly motivated Democratic voters, people who feel sharply estranged from Trump and Republican thinking.  Trump is a motivator.

The GOP has moved right and purged itself of many of their moderates, but a few remain.  Those moderate Republican officeholders have a problem. They may not like Trump, but their Democratic opponents will make the point that if they caucus with the party of Trump, and vote with the party of Trump, then they are stuck with Trump, warts and all.  

Some will defend him.  Some will oppose him.  Some will mumble and speak in generalities and platitudes and manage to come across as accommodating and moderate. But it might come across as wishy washy and confused.  I predict that will be the message challenge that moderate Republican candidates will face.