Emergency Alert in Hawaii

History is not "what happened."

History is the lessons people learn from what they decide, with hindsight, is "what happened."  

Cell Phone Alert

We just had a brief history lesson this week.  "Emergency Alert.  Ballistic Missile threat inbound to Hawaii.  Seek immediate shelter.  This is not a drill."

1914 Lesson.  The loss of lives in World War One and its destruction of four European empires was out of all proportion to the spark that initiated it.  People sought lessons and historians supplied them.  We learned that  little allies with their own national agendas can draw major countries into wars they would not rationally choose.  We learned that preparation for war by one side is perceived as an act of war by powers careful not to be caught flat footed.

Result?   America ignores the first lesson, in Vietnam and Israel.  We address the second lesson by a three part deterrence system.

1938 Lesson.  France and Britain allowed Hitler to annex the German speaking portion of Czechoslovakia.  For 80 years it was were clear lessons: any negotiation and ceding land an "appeasement,", always bad morally and tactically, and it is an act of cowardice. Every problem is a stitch in time to save nine.  t..

Result?  Every challenge in the Cold War was perceived as another Munich challenge. We invented the "domino theory" and therefore utterly misunderstood Vietnam.

1941 Lesson.  Pearl Harbor attack.  Lesson learned: be on the lookout for a sneak attack.

Result?  Us military is on 24-7 stars and has a nuclear response that can survive a first strike.  

Saturday, January 13, 2018, and the possibility of a lesson.  What happened?  An accident.  A mid level State of Hawaii employee at a shift change hits the wrong spot on a dropdown menu.  He clicked "Missile Alert" rather than "Test Missile Alert."

The world just experienced a learning opportunity.  It may go unnoticed.  Nobody died. 

Result?  An opportunity to reflect on the danger of saber rattling and the Trump Doctrine of Unpredictability in foreign policy.

Trump during missile alert. Distracted.

Trump must have heard about a civil defense alert as a false alarm, not as notice of an alarm being issued with unclear circumstances and potential missile threat.  First impressions matter.  This caught Trump while he was golfing, not while he was engaging in threat-banter with Kim Jon-un.  Sometimes events are ambiguous. the September 11 attacks looked like an accident, then a hijacking, at first.  Everything might have been different had he gotten a tweet saying "MISSILE ATTACK ALERT IN HAWAII.  PEOPLE SHELTERING. 911"

Trump is being criticized for golfing and tweeting about "Fire and Fury" rather than about 1.5 million people being warned of imminent death, but I consider this fortunate. Trump was out of the alarm loop.  No military aide ran to him and rushed him into Marine One while people sorted out why a civil defense warning had been issued. Trump--or Kim Jong-un could have learned about a missile attack alert as it it were real--the way the citizens of Hawaii experienced it. They would have had five minutes to decide to determine the correct response. There would get ambiguous information. Alert from Hawaii, all clear from the military.  Take precautionary action, which action might be a signal to Kim Jong-un that this was real, not a drill.  Kim Jong-un might have interpreted the sheltering warning to Hawaii as  war preparation, getting civilians to safety in preparation for the attack.

In fact, apparently, none of this happened, and Saturday was just another forgettable day.  But it could have played out much differently and different lessons applied.  It might be a sneak attack (1941 lesson.)  Someone might be mobilizing first (1914).  Don't fail to act (1938.)

Temporary graves, Verdun 1916

Trump promotes a Doctrine of Unpredictability.  A "crazy man" is given wide berth and his threats are more worrisome since the the actor is less rational and disciplined..  People understood that Obama wanted to avoid war.  They don't know about the bellicose and mercurial Trump.  That is perceived as a strength.

The lesson this Saturday is that the Trump Doctrine of Unpredictability may work, but it is dangerous.  Accidents happen. They are more likely to happen when the decision makers perceive other decision makers to be emotional and erratic. That is exactly Trump's intention.  

No one in August, 1914 wanted total war and the destruction of Europe.  They blundered into it.