Win-Win. Lose-Lose.

Lose by Winning and Win by Losing.

Either way is perilous, both for Democrats and Republicans.  It is either Obamacare or Trumpcare.

If the House passes an Obamacare replacement bill today it will be called a tremendous victory by Republicans.  They can govern!   Trump is a masterful negotiator!  The Freedom Caucus is filled with loyal Republicans, at least in a pinch.  It will be a high point for Republicans.   Talk will emerge about the new tax cut bill, the new infrastructure bill, Trump on Mt. Rushmore.

Democrats will look like weak, outvoted spoilsports.

If House Republicans fail to pass a bill today the will look like Keystone Cops, right?  Everything pundits have said bout their inability to govern will be shown to be true.  Trump is weak!  A blowhard!  In over his head!    Right?

Not so fast.  It is more likely the reverse.

If the House passes this they are utterly committed to governing.  The resultant mess is theirs.  Trumpcare is unpopular, and it will be Trumpcare.   If they don't pass a law today they will look silly and disorganized but Republicans have a consolation prize.  They get to keep campaigning and complaining about Obamacare, calling it a disaster and doing their best to starve it and make it unaffordable along lines that please Republican constituencies. 

Republicans do not want to succeed.  They are only proceeding on this because they promised they would and because failure undermines Trump's credibility on what they really want: tax cuts.