The Misery of Triumph

"Who knew health care could be so complicated?"

The GOP succeeded politically because it was the party of opposition.  Officeholders knew what they hated: everything Obama, everything Hillary, taxes, regulations, the government.   And Obamacare.

Then they won the House.  Then the Senate.  Then Trump won.  

Yikes.  GOP incumbents are in a terrible position.   Politics is hard.

Chaos and a Closed Door.  Just what Rand Paul wanted.

Yesterday Rand Paul staged a media stunt.  He brought a delegation of camera crews over to a closed door of the Energy and Commerce Committee of the House.  He wanted to make the point that:

A bill was being created in private and he wasn't being allowed to see it.  What are they hiding??   The process was flawed!   He said he feared the GOP replacement for Obamacare would be an outrageous entitlement expansion and he would oppose such a travesty!

The Freedom Caucus member chimed in.   This morning on Glenn Beck a congressman called it an outrage.  Glenn Beck called it "hide and seek" legislation and blamed the GOP powers that be.

Bad headline:  Walden defending secrecy.

What a miserable spot for the Chair of the Energy and Commerce committee.  He is just trying to do his job and the job is impossible.  Worse, it make him unpopular.

Greg Walden is quoted and described as defending a secret process.  This is ideal for Rand Paul who gets to call for transparency and a great law.   Meanwhile, it puts Walden in a miserable position, trapped by trying to do an impossible job, stuck looking like he is hiding something, stuck with his own promises and Trump's. 

It was good politics for Rand Paul to grandstand.  He doesn't have to come up with a law.  He gets to do what Walden and Trump have done:  demand the impossible.   Walden is left holding the bag.

Easy to complain from the outside.

Republicans have a majority and theoretically a majority can govern.  Arms will be twisted, deals will be made, the ugly "sausage" of legislation will get passed.   

But this assumes a premise: that there is more value for a legislator to fall into line as a Republican than there is to stand firm against Republican establishment compromise.   That premise is dead wrong.  

Ted Cruz piles on.

Republican voters have been taught by talk radio, by Fox News, by their own candidates that governing is a "sell out."  

Paul sought attention for standing firm against the Republican establishment.  Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both in their own separate ways proved what Republicans really want: steadfast opposition to Republicans as the party of governance.   "Drain the swamp!" was a powerful message.  Governance is a swamp.   House leader Eric Canter, Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, and Utah Senator Bob Bennett did not get into trouble because they were too conservative.  They lost their seats because they were part of government, instead of what GOP voters have been taught is the right stance:  opposition to government.

Playing Defense:  We aren't hiding.

There will be plenty to oppose in any Republican replacement for Obamacare.  Healthcare is complicated, as Trump noted, and there will be deal-killing elements of any new law.  Yesterday's blog post noted that Democrats have a perfection-problem.  The most active and engaged Democrats care about issues, not party.  The perfection-problem is far greater for Republicans.  Democratic activists are tempered by the notion that government is generally good.  Republican activists have learned and integrated the notion that government is essentially very, very bad--except for the police and military.  Therefore, there is far more glory for Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz to stand foursquare for principle than there is to accept a law that has deal-killers in it.

Can the Republican establishment cobble together a replacement for Obamacare that actually passes?  Very possibly.  Something will get done.  But Paul Ryan and Greg Walden are likely to come out of the process badly bruised and very politically vulnerable.  They over-promised.  

An Obamacare replacement will be vigorously attacked as a very bad bill by Republicans, and that will make the job of Democratic critics very easy.   Donald Trump and  Paul Ryan and Greg Walden promised us something good and they will have delivered something very bad. Not cheap.  Not simple.  Not universal.  Not fair.  Not better.  

Donald Trump has given no sign that he will willingly run interference and take political heat for others.  Of course, he will attempt to blame "the mess" Obama left him with and then Democratic intransigence.  But Republicans have a majority.  The real blame, again with Republicans chiming in, will be the Republican Congressional establishment: Paul Ryan and Greg Walden is likely targets.

GOP congressmen have an open shot at the basket.  They have a majority.  They have the power to create laws but they have taught their own voters that power is illegitimate, that government does not work, and that the legislative process is corrupted.  The political environment is ripe to criticize whatever the political establishment does.  

It is a difficult position for Walden.  His tremendous success as a prolific fundraiser for Republicans allowed him to be in this position, but it also sets him up as an archetype of what Republican and Democratic voters soundly rejected in 2016: the person who represents the insurance industry and the drug companies, but not the people.    

Democrats don't need to make that point.  Freedom Caucus Republicans are delighted to make it for them.  Listen to US Rep. Tom Massie for yourself:   Tom Massie on Glenn Beck