Huge Opportunity for the GOP

Citizens are demanding something great.   It is an opportunity for Greg Walden and the GOP

A hundred voters showed up to learn more about Health Care.  It was 6:30 on a Saturday night at a Jackson County library meeting room.  This is what democracy looks like.

Alan Hallmark's excellent photo of the meeting

The stakes are high for some members of the GOP.  Some issues can be spun or faked with a little bit of cosmetics.  Not this one.

As the meeting revealed, a great many people in Republican Congressional Districts are affected very directly.  Their money and the health of their families are at stake.

Potential candidate Peter Buckley

The meeting was informational.  People wanted to learn things and Pam Marsh and Peter Buckley were informed and articulate.  They explained important, complicated facts about the health care financing system in Oregon.   There is federal money, state money, federal waivers that allow Oregon to allocate it in the way they want, the Oregon Health Authority that delivers the money, Coordinated Care Organizations which get it and then perform or contract for medical services.   It is complicated.   Donald Trump asked, "Who knew?"  The answer is, lots of people who are involved in the system,  and now another hundred from the meeting if they were able to follow the details.

Willamette Week: Walden's District Relies on the ACA

It was not a political rally with people looking for electoral change.  It was a group interested in health care.  One of the potential candidates, Jim Crary, put it bluntly:   If Greg Walden does a great job and the Republicans come up with something great, then he wouldn't have a chance politically.  If they improve Obamacare, good.  In that case Walden will win big.

GOP congressmen have an opportunity to be heroes and in fact to improve the system.   It will cost money but they have majorities in Congress and can pass what they can agree to pass.  Their constituents would notice.  One key part of Obama is the expansion of Medicaid money so that families who are struggling, but not in formal poverty, can be covered under the expanded Oregon Health Plan.   Note that Greg Walden's rural district among all Republican congressmen has the greatest number of people who gained access due to Medicaid expansion.   Walden is at risk but is protected somewhat by Democrats in the Oregon legislature.   The Democratic governor and legislative majorities do not want to make "examples" out of Oregonians kicked out of health care because the GOP may cut or climate Medicaid money.   They will take political heat for other cuts in order to preserve most of the Obamacare gains. The political ideal for Walden would be credit for cutting federal costs by destroying the state-administered Medicaid program, the Oregon Health Plan, and then for the people who lose coverage to blame the state--led by Democrats--for cutting the program.  Democrats are alert to this possibility, but if Walden finesses it correctly it could work politically.  Democrats are vulnerable here. They may want healthcare for rural Oregonians more than Walden does and if they publicly anguish over the cuts they will appear to be the villain.

Oregon expanded Medicaid to help the working poor

ACA Analysis: Who was helped

The meeting made reference to a document prepared by the Democratic staff of the Energy and Commerce Committee.  It is complicated reading by newspaper standards, but it is readable.  It describes the effects of the loss of  ACA/Obamacare based on people losing expanded Medicaid, as above but also the numbers of people helped by the insurance exchanges created under the ACA.  The uninsured rate has dropped dramatically. 


 


Either way, it could be a big win for Walden.  It depends on performance.  There will be a lot of grateful and relieved people if the coverage made possible by Obamacare is preserved.  GOP congressman could take a well deserved victory lap politically.   Between the Medicaid expansion and the people enrolled in the ACA marketplace there would be over 159,000 people who whose access to healthcare was preserved.  

Walden has won overwhelming victories, most recently 273,000 to 107,000 for the Democrat, a high Republican turnout presidential year.  More people received coverage under Obamacare in the 2nd Congressional district than voted for the candidate who said he would preserve it.   The question is: how will people react if Medicare expansion and the insurance is taken away.   My experience as a Financial Advisor revealed that people hate losses far more than they appreciate gains.

If Walden is perceived as having succeeded in protecting the benefits of the ACA he is in excellent political position.  The question will be whether he fails and who takes the blame for the failure, Walden or the Democrats.