Thucydades said nations go to war for three reasons: gain, fear, and honor. Let's look at a Democrats and Republican and see what might bring nuclear war.
Democrats may unite to defeat Gorsuch because in good game theory strategy they simply must. The Republicans refused to allow Obama to appoint "his" judge. Justice Scalia died with eleven months to go in Obama's term of office and Republicans refused to consider him. It would be smart and strategic. Nothing against Gorsuch personally. This is just a hostage trade situation.
Smart strategy: When hit, hit back. Were Democrats to accept this insult their pride would be hurt and Democrats fear they will appear weak and it will embolden Republicans. Republicans need to decide how to respond. They want the appointment because they would gain an ideological ally on the Supreme Court. Their pride would be hurt. But is it in their interest?
Thad Guyer says, yes. I think most certainly not. Republicans are weighing pride which tells them they must insist on the nomination even at the cost of the end of the filibuster, against interest, which tells them that Senate rules are what mske the senate so great a prize compared with the House. (Gain is a wash. Any alternate would have roughly the same ideology.)
A senator would lose a great deal of political power if Senate rules were to move further toward the House's majority rule. People routinely risk losing 15 and 20 years of House seniority to become a junior senator. Why? Because senate rules make each senator a tyrant, and not a petty one. Their ability to put holds on appointments, their ability to object to things moving forward, and the filibuster make certain that each senator must be listened to and accommodated. Every senator gets a mini-veto on legislation. Senator Cruz used the power of his office to block the senate and caused him to be widely--some say universally--hated by his colleagues, yet he is still powerful and still must be accommodated.
My prediction us that senatorial self interest will outweigh pride. Republicans will be patient and will crow their victory when someone even more conservative than Gorsuch is appointed. Pride will get its due, but not until Gorsuch is sacrificed, in my prediction. Republicans will let Gorsuch be filibustered and rejected. It is just too good being a senator to give up its power simply to let one guy become a judge when there are hundreds of alternatives. (Maybe even Ted Cruz thus time. What a wonderful way for GOP senators to get rid of the tyrant.)
Thad Guyer thinks otherwise:
"Gorsuch Will Not Be Confirmed??"
My first jolt at this improbable prediction was tempered by my own very wrong prediction that Ryancare would pass. My reasoning was Ryan would pressure the Freedom Caucus so hard they would cry uncle, because such humiliation of Trump would be out of the question. But, in fact, Trump didn't care if Ryancare failed, he didn't own it, and it was itself Plan B. Alternative Plan A was let it fail, then replace Obamacare with Obamacare. Obamacare is like a suicide vest now strapped to Democrats timed for a 2018 midterm explosion. By contrast, Trump does own Gorsuch, he's inextricably and psychologically joined to Trump. There is no upside in Gorsuch being defeated, it could only be severe psychological damage to Trump, and a feckless, needless loss for the Republican Senate.
There is no Freedom Caucus in the Senate except Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, and Mitch McConnell is no Paul Ryan. If Paul Ryan could have pushed a nuclear button to change House Rules to pass Ryancare, he would have used that nuclear option. House Speakers historically get deposed by the radical fringes, Senate Majority Leaders don't. There are only two senators per state, but many gerrymandered Congressional districts which even in sum can only produce 30 or so mutants. Every single senator by contrast must win statewide approval, and the only mutants are Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. Unlike the House, the two mutant Republican senators do support Gorsuch.
Indeed, there is no headcount of Republican Senators who are even on the fence on the Gorsuch confirmation. To the contrary, the headcount remains how many Democrats will end up supporting him. In short, the Senate is on a different planet than the House. On Planet House Mutant, not a single Democrat joined the Republicans. That won’t be the case in the Senate.
Gorsuch will fail only if Mitch McConnel is willing to have his wife's (Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao) administration fail. Pulling the nuclear trigger in finishing off the filibusterer already crippled by Democrats requires little more than abandoning sentimentality over the old ways. Senate Republicans gratuitously accepting defeat to preserve the filibusterer so that Democrats can later kill it is out of the question. Accepting defeat on Gorsuch would be political suicide for Republicans, and would unleash the nihilistic Mad Max lurking in Donald Trump. Gorsuch not getting confirmed despite enough Republicans to confirm him would put the Senate onto a different planet. I can’t see that happening.
Democrats may unite to defeat Gorsuch because in good game theory strategy they simply must. The Republicans refused to allow Obama to appoint "his" judge. Justice Scalia died with eleven months to go in Obama's term of office and Republicans refused to consider him. It would be smart and strategic. Nothing against Gorsuch personally. This is just a hostage trade situation.
Smart strategy: When hit, hit back. Were Democrats to accept this insult their pride would be hurt and Democrats fear they will appear weak and it will embolden Republicans. Republicans need to decide how to respond. They want the appointment because they would gain an ideological ally on the Supreme Court. Their pride would be hurt. But is it in their interest?
Thad Guyer says, yes. I think most certainly not. Republicans are weighing pride which tells them they must insist on the nomination even at the cost of the end of the filibuster, against interest, which tells them that Senate rules are what mske the senate so great a prize compared with the House. (Gain is a wash. Any alternate would have roughly the same ideology.)
A senator would lose a great deal of political power if Senate rules were to move further toward the House's majority rule. People routinely risk losing 15 and 20 years of House seniority to become a junior senator. Why? Because senate rules make each senator a tyrant, and not a petty one. Their ability to put holds on appointments, their ability to object to things moving forward, and the filibuster make certain that each senator must be listened to and accommodated. Every senator gets a mini-veto on legislation. Senator Cruz used the power of his office to block the senate and caused him to be widely--some say universally--hated by his colleagues, yet he is still powerful and still must be accommodated.
My prediction us that senatorial self interest will outweigh pride. Republicans will be patient and will crow their victory when someone even more conservative than Gorsuch is appointed. Pride will get its due, but not until Gorsuch is sacrificed, in my prediction. Republicans will let Gorsuch be filibustered and rejected. It is just too good being a senator to give up its power simply to let one guy become a judge when there are hundreds of alternatives. (Maybe even Ted Cruz thus time. What a wonderful way for GOP senators to get rid of the tyrant.)
Thad Guyer thinks otherwise:
"Gorsuch Will Not Be Confirmed??"
My first jolt at this improbable prediction was tempered by my own very wrong prediction that Ryancare would pass. My reasoning was Ryan would pressure the Freedom Caucus so hard they would cry uncle, because such humiliation of Trump would be out of the question. But, in fact, Trump didn't care if Ryancare failed, he didn't own it, and it was itself Plan B. Alternative Plan A was let it fail, then replace Obamacare with Obamacare. Obamacare is like a suicide vest now strapped to Democrats timed for a 2018 midterm explosion. By contrast, Trump does own Gorsuch, he's inextricably and psychologically joined to Trump. There is no upside in Gorsuch being defeated, it could only be severe psychological damage to Trump, and a feckless, needless loss for the Republican Senate.
There is no Freedom Caucus in the Senate except Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, and Mitch McConnell is no Paul Ryan. If Paul Ryan could have pushed a nuclear button to change House Rules to pass Ryancare, he would have used that nuclear option. House Speakers historically get deposed by the radical fringes, Senate Majority Leaders don't. There are only two senators per state, but many gerrymandered Congressional districts which even in sum can only produce 30 or so mutants. Every single senator by contrast must win statewide approval, and the only mutants are Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. Unlike the House, the two mutant Republican senators do support Gorsuch.
Indeed, there is no headcount of Republican Senators who are even on the fence on the Gorsuch confirmation. To the contrary, the headcount remains how many Democrats will end up supporting him. In short, the Senate is on a different planet than the House. On Planet House Mutant, not a single Democrat joined the Republicans. That won’t be the case in the Senate.
Gorsuch will fail only if Mitch McConnel is willing to have his wife's (Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao) administration fail. Pulling the nuclear trigger in finishing off the filibusterer already crippled by Democrats requires little more than abandoning sentimentality over the old ways. Senate Republicans gratuitously accepting defeat to preserve the filibusterer so that Democrats can later kill it is out of the question. Accepting defeat on Gorsuch would be political suicide for Republicans, and would unleash the nihilistic Mad Max lurking in Donald Trump. Gorsuch not getting confirmed despite enough Republicans to confirm him would put the Senate onto a different planet. I can’t see that happening.
3 comments:
That princely power of the filibuster makes its final exit only if Dems force McConnel to hit that gavel. I'm betting Gorsuch gets 8 to 10 Dem votes from swing and red states. In that event, Schumer becomes the leader of a failed insurgency. As of this morning the Reuters headcount is that 23 Dem Senators still haven't announced support for the big blue cities filibuster.
You are probably right about Gorsuch and the Dems. It is game playing instead of logically thinking down the line. There could be more Supreme Court openings during this administration, and we may wish Gorsuch had been picked, as many worse possibilities lie down the road. If we hold out here, can we keep holding out down the line and leave the court so empty?
It occurs to me that the Dems may try to push this nomination until after the mid-terms. A tall order...but if the the strategy is to get back some power this would be the way to go. Progressive support is building with every Trump outrage and things could change very quickly. This calls for local as well as national activism.
Post a Comment