Where there is smoke there is smoke, and enough smoke is enough.
The Sunday serious news shows will go around and around about the meaning of the FBI investigation. The very topic is toxic for Hillary Clinton. Not the results of whatever is found on the laptop but the topic itself.
Should FBI Director James Comey have said anything about the discovery of emails on Andrew Weiner's laptop computer due to a separate investigation? It is entirely likely they are irrelevant to Hillary Clinton but the words "re-open an FBI investigation" is shouting "FIRE!" in a crowded theater.
The Sunday shows will be careful and use precise language asserting that nothing whatever is known and some pundits will be sharply critical of Director Comey, but it will not matter. The show will link the words "FBI" and "investigation" and "Hillary Clinton" and that is enough.
Smoke. Doubt. Questions.
The headline and caption link the words "FBI", "Criminal", "Hillary Clinton", "Illicit email server" and "Illicit email practices". And to make it even more juicy and newsworthy they get to add "Anthony Weiner" and "sexting underage girl across state lines."
Corruption, sleaze, sex, FBI: doesn't get better than that for Trump, or worse for Hillary.
Trump knows how to exploit media attention. He is accusing Hillary Clinton of "criminal action"and he has friendly media. It accepts as assumed fact the worst assertions. In politics this works.
Begging the question" doesn't mean urging that a question be asked. It means assuming the facts or conclusion that are under debate. The above Breitbart article is a perfect case in point. The headline and caption link the words "FBI", "Criminal", "Hillary Clinton", "Illicit email server" and "Illicit email practices".
Click here for a short video of Trump
Trump says the Clintons are running a criminal enterprise and everyone is in on it. The Justice Department is corrupt. Trump wonders, speculates, and accuses based on his speculation. The audience responses are audible in the video. Listen. They love it.
"The Justice Department is trying their hardest to protect the criminal activity of Hillary Clinton. . . . Perhaps that was what Bill Clinton was arranging when he met with Attorney General Lynch."
This fits the greater Trump message: the system is rigged, nearly everyone is in on it including the government and the media, and politicians of both parties, but especially Hillary Clinton, and we need to drain the swamp. Trump: the reform candidate of change.
Begging the question" doesn't mean urging that a question be asked. It means assuming the facts or conclusion that are under debate. The above Breitbart article is a perfect case in point. The headline and caption link the words "FBI", "Criminal", "Hillary Clinton", "Illicit email server" and "Illicit email practices".
Click here for a short video of Trump
Trump says the Clintons are running a criminal enterprise and everyone is in on it. The Justice Department is corrupt. Trump wonders, speculates, and accuses based on his speculation. The audience responses are audible in the video. Listen. They love it.
"The Justice Department is trying their hardest to protect the criminal activity of Hillary Clinton. . . . Perhaps that was what Bill Clinton was arranging when he met with Attorney General Lynch."
This fits the greater Trump message: the system is rigged, nearly everyone is in on it including the government and the media, and politicians of both parties, but especially Hillary Clinton, and we need to drain the swamp. Trump: the reform candidate of change.
In fact this is someone else's laptop, someone else's emails and their "illicitness" are presumed and asserted even though whether there is anything wrong is completely unknown.
This is damaging for Hillary. Nate Silver of the Fivethirtyeight.com website notes that this election is unusual because the number of undecided voters is very high this close to the election. More than enough votes to swing the election are "in play." For something to be bad for Hillary Clinton it need not actually be bad. It just needs to be convoluted and messy and confusing. That makes it bad. Smoke.
The polling trend is back away from Clinton and current polls--prior to this blast of news-- show her up 2% nationally, but falling. This won't help her.
Late Update: at 9:40 PDT Sunday the first poll was released. One third of likely voter say the news makes them less likely to vote for Clinton. Some 7% of leaning-Hillary voters decided to take a "wait and see" position, costing Hillary about 1% in total support in this early report.
# # #
The polling trend is back away from Clinton and current polls--prior to this blast of news-- show her up 2% nationally, but falling. This won't help her.
Late Update: at 9:40 PDT Sunday the first poll was released. One third of likely voter say the news makes them less likely to vote for Clinton. Some 7% of leaning-Hillary voters decided to take a "wait and see" position, costing Hillary about 1% in total support in this early report.# # #
Podcast: Something scary for Halloween:
Peter Sage and Thad Guyer go back and forth on whether the polls are merely a worrisome trend for Hillary, or a real disaster. Peter says that Trump's Hotel ribbon cutting was a triumph: early and below budget. Thad talks about the models that predicted this was likely to be a good year for the party out of power. And preview of coming attractions: what the losing party needs to do to remake its party.
1 comment:
I learned the meaning of "begging the question" in college (OSU, 1980s) when I asked a very leftwing professor if he thought Reagan was the worst president in US history. He responded, "Don't you think you're begging the question?"
Pow. I didn't know what the phrase meant before that, but I certainly never forgot it after. What a great lesson he gave me in oh-so-few words.
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