What if Trump actually has a winning issue?
My Hillary-supporting friends look at the various polls and are starting to relax and feel good about the October weather. Life is good. Whew. Miller Time.
Not so fast.
I have seen enough horror movies to know that in horror movies this is the predictable setup to a shock. The movie has bright sunshine lighting, a serene music score, the little girl is innocently picking flowers or petting the puppy. Then ka-POW.
In romantic comedies, this is the setup for a misunderstanding, but it all works out in the end. At this moment Hillary supporters think it is a comedy, not a horror movie. What could go wrong? That Trump makes a persuasive case.
In romantic comedies, this is the setup for a misunderstanding, but it all works out in the end. At this moment Hillary supporters think it is a comedy, not a horror movie. What could go wrong? That Trump makes a persuasive case.
Trump has shown few signs of deep planning strategy, but he has shown multiple and repeated signs that his instincts about what voters care about is spot on. He has the entertainer's gift of audience rapport and he learns from it. He is essentially dead even in enough battleground states to win the election notwithstanding astonishingly self-destructive behaviors, present and past.
If this is the movie set-up, and the innocent protagonist is happily reading the polls, blithely unaware of the upcoming hazard, what surprise makes this a horror movie, not a romantic comedy?
Trump's message, to drain the swamp. It has appeal.
Yesterday a Trump voter sent me an email joke. Many of the jokes I have received from him have an anti-Muslim or anti-immigrant premise. This one was different. It opened with the headline:
The "Washington Redskins" drop the offensive name. They dropped the word "Washington" because the word suggests corruption, mismanagement, cheating, lying, graft and it set a bad role model for youth.
Trump, the patriotic reform candidate. Trump has winning issues on trade, on jobs, on factories going overseas, on campaign funding, on fear of Muslims, on border security, on reducing the power of the special interests. Bernie Sanders said much the same thing on special interests, campaign funding, factories, trade, and reform.
Perhaps too late--because we are in the final reel of the movie--Trump has raised a unifying theme that makes sense of his criticism of Paul Ryan. It links Hillary Clinton not just to liberals (which gives Sanders voters a reason to cast a reluctant vote for Hillary) but to Republicans and special interests and Wall Street and the careerism and cronyism that corrupts Washington.
The drain-the-swamp theme means it isn't crazy for Trump to attack Paul Ryan. It may be genius. Trump is positioning himself as the spokesman for hope and change, not conservative rigor. He is going to shake America up, not shake it to the right. That widens his appeal. Congress has a 15%-20% approval rating and it is safe and popular to condemn them.
Perhaps too late--because we are in the final reel of the movie--Trump has raised a unifying theme that makes sense of his criticism of Paul Ryan. It links Hillary Clinton not just to liberals (which gives Sanders voters a reason to cast a reluctant vote for Hillary) but to Republicans and special interests and Wall Street and the careerism and cronyism that corrupts Washington.
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| Trump, the Patriotic Reform Candidate |
It makes sense for Trump to call for term limits and 5 year bans on lobbying by former legislators or White House personnel. Professional political observers understand that term limits have real problems because they destroy institutional memory and respect for norms, but voters don't feel that way. Trump is voicing the Andrew Jackson populist democratic notion of "rotation in office" an idea that has eternal appeal. People serve then return home. They are citizen legislators, thus avoiding careerism. Careerism corrupts. Hillary Clinton is a career politician. Trump is a businessman. It links biography to campaign theme. It is true and undeniable. It has appeal. It could work.
The Trump and Sanders insurgencies demonstrate that a significant number of voters want "hope and change." Hillary's resume forced her to be the voice of continuity. Trump was on the right side of history and he has the extraordinary talent to command the attention of the media. He is now asking Americans to let him--in the name of patriotism and reform--drain the swamp and sweep away all the bad actors who have made Washington a joke.
He has an issue and theme that can elect him president. Can he stay on message?
President Obama is sending up a distraction of the kind Trump has been unable to resist--a challenge to Trump's manhood.
President Obama is sending up a distraction of the kind Trump has been unable to resist--a challenge to Trump's manhood.
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| Distracting Trump from his message |
Women are saying he assaults him. Trump responds not just with a denial but an assertion that the women aren't attractive enough for a hunk like him.
Meanwhile, Wiki-leaks give him tempting negative things to say about Hillary. When Trump is talking about Hillary and Bill he is talking about comparative fitness for office, which is Hillary's best issue.
Can Trump resist the distractions? It appears not. Tonight Trump is bringing Barrack Obama's half brother to the debate to make some unclear point--perhaps that Obama's father was from Africa, as if that is a relevant and powerful message against Hillary and as if it doesn't resurrect birther claims.
Trump is distractible . Trump cannot resist temptation. It takes him off message and documents her message, that Trump is temperamentally unfit.
Trump has a winning theme to hammer home. Based on recent experience, he will fail to pursue it. That would make this a comedy after all.
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There is more. Once a week I upload a podcast of a conversation and commentary created by me and Thad Guyer, an attorney who specializes in representing whistleblowing employees. We talk about the current state of the race, the mainstream polls, the outlier poll, Trump's message, Hillary's weaknesses, Bill Clinton's past sins, former Sanders voters, the ghost of Nader, and more. Check it out.
# # #
There is more. Once a week I upload a podcast of a conversation and commentary created by me and Thad Guyer, an attorney who specializes in representing whistleblowing employees. We talk about the current state of the race, the mainstream polls, the outlier poll, Trump's message, Hillary's weaknesses, Bill Clinton's past sins, former Sanders voters, the ghost of Nader, and more. Check it out.
1 comment:
None of Trump's actions suggest a strategy of any kind. He's not brilliant or even smart. What we have seen happen is the result of over-the-top self-promotion. He has no ideology, no interest in governance or the world, and simply spouts inanities that occur on the spot. I have a hard time seeing any sort of intelligence in any of this. He doesn't understand his base; we just have folks who like authoritarianism, like outrageous talk, and will follow it. I see no design in any of it.
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