We can see the future. It isn't pretty. It is "birtherism" all over again, only this time it is Hillary who Trump calls a fraud.
Post election reconciliation is unlikely. Yesterday I asked a middle age man who works for a nonprofit organization on a college campus if he knew anyone personally--one single person--who was going to vote for Trump. He paused and thought. He said he knew a lot of people, a whole lot. "No," he said. "I know some Sanders people who aren't going to vote for Hillary because she is too corporate, but, no, nobody who would vote for Trump. How could anyone possibly vote for Trump?"
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| De-legitimization is underway and it is working. |
My Hillary supporting readers tell me they check on Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight once or twice a day. Let me remind them that their current reading do not say that Hillary will win 84% of the vote. They say that--based on current polls which might be way off--she would win 84 out of 100 simulations, which means that one time out of six Trump will win, even based on current polls.
Polls could change. There is bipartisan desire for change. Voters are restless and want a new deal, a new frontier, a new something. That is what Trump is selling when he is not distracted: new something, and it is good and it involves winning.
De-legitimizing Hillary helps Trump's chances to win. The de-legitimization also helps him if he loses. It is win-win for Trump.
Trump is freezing out Hillary as a vehicle for change.
Trump is warning that if we elect Hillary there will be total dysfunction and gridlock.
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| 70% of Republicans say election is "rigged" already |
Here is the future if Hillary wins:
1. Huge numbers of people will be dumfounded that the impossible happened. People who get their news from Fox, talk radio, conservative news sites, and their conservative Facebook friends are convinced Trump will win. Everyone they know is going to vote for Trump. If Hillary wins there must be something fishy.
2. Republicans in the House and Senate would not just have permission to obstruct the government, it would be demanded of them. Republican officeholders would have the mandate of the voters but Hillary would not. It would be their civic duty to obstruct.
3. Republicans in the House and Senate would have a mandate to clean up the rigged election mistake by constitutional methods. Don't pass budgets to force a crisis. Do investigations to distract the executive and to root out corruption. Prosecute. Impeach.
Here is the future if Trump wins:
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| Lead story in Breitbart this morning |
1. Democrats will be horrified but accept the election results.
2. Trump and the two houses of Congress will unravel some parts of Obama's legacy and the Supreme Court will go back to full strength, and the normal checks and balances of the legislative and executive branch will be in place. Government will work, in the normal contentious manner that it works.
Elect Trump or else. By saying he will not necessarily accept the election results Trump energizes the populist Trump majority of the Republican party. The primary election threat they pose to the establishment Republicans will keep them in line.
Republicans who are willing to compromise to keep the government working are already defined as the enemy in Breitbart, the semi-official media outlet of the Trump party. Ryan-supporting Republicans might look for areas of bi-partisan cooperation. Budgets might get passed. Voters who perceive the presidential election as fraudulent need not stand for that. Why compromise with a person who won by cheating?
Elect Hillary and get gridlock and disfunction. Elect Trump and something might get done.
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