More on the Tonia Moro/Alan DeBoer race

I have posted a corrected link to the TV Advertisement that I referenced yesterday.   

For some reason the old link stopped working:   Here is a correct link:  Click Here Now   The ad attempts to portray DeBoer as a danger to Southern Oregon livability based on apparent close association with "developers" who want to destroy it. 

From the Moro ad.   

  

The ad has continued to cause problems for Tonia, including today a op-ed column from Senator Alan Bates' own widow condemning the ad and praising Moro's Republican opponent.  This is causing another round of discussion and dismay among Democrats.

How could Moro do something so self-destructive?  She is intelligent, politically experienced, an attorney who presumably knows well the give and take of argument and how not to make one that would backfire.   DeBoer objected to the ad but the real damage to Moro has come from the press, from Bates' widow, and from the dismay of fellow Democrats.

Partisan traditions pull candidates into traps.

Democrats in southern Oregon have traditionally been the "environment" party.  Republicans locally have generally taken the opposite view, mirroring the national parties.   Nationally Republicans mock CO2 and climate change as a problem, they praise "clean coal", audiences rise in support when Trump and other Republican candidates say they will abolish the EPA.  Nationally they dismiss efforts for auto fuel standards, concerns about fracking and water, concerns about oil pipelines and its externalities, requirements for transit systems and bicycle lanes.   Generally, at the national level, Republicans position the environment as an expensive amenity versus the realistic and immediate value of jobs and business.

Locally,  Republicans had objected to clean air standards because it would be expensive for lumber mills to install scrubbers, objected to auto maintenance standards because they would cost consumers to repair their cars, objected to zoning restrictions because it would restrict the subdivision of rural lands, objected to designation of federal lands for uses other than timber harvest, because it would cost logging jobs.  I know this vividly from personal experience.  I was an elected County Commissioner here in Southern Oregon in the 1980s.  Republicans candidates did not say they wanted dirty air or dirty water or over-harvest of federal timber.   They simply said that every mechanism for dealing with the issues (scrubbers on mill waste, bans on burning fields or slash, limits on timber harvest) were job- killing left-wing extremism, therefore opposed by the Chamber of Commerce and Republican candidates. 

Generally local Republicans have grown more mellow on these issues.  The biggest engine for jobs and growth are prosperous retirees and technology based companies who would not come to a place with polluted air or a degraded environment.   Southern Oregon livability is our main selling point for jobs.    Therefore, a generic Democrat describing a generic Republican for being "anti-environment" has a familiar and traditional feel, particularly in the shadow of the presidential race. It fits a comfortable partisan narrative.  But it is no longer particularly relevant and it appears misplaced in the current instance of DeBoer. 

It is possible that Moro could have found some basis for shoehorning DeBoer into that model, but the instances in the ad were poorly chosen and therefore require the ad to rely on vague implication of association, not actual wrongdoing,.  But she went ahead with the ad positioning herself as the safeguard of livability and her Republican opponent as its despoiler, motivated by greed.   

The ad blew up on Moro almost immediately. 

DeBoer response

Partisan narratives are important to assure ones supporters that one knows and respects the symbols of ones party.   DeBoer mumbled something on abortion.  Whatever it was didn't get him in trouble with Republicans.   He was apparently anti-abortion enough.   Moro got the Planned Parenthood endorsement which is probably all DeBoer needed to protect himself on his abortion flank.

 He condemned "out-of-control spending", as if there is anyone who actually supports "out-of-control spending", but it sends a signal to Republicans that he cares about spending and therefore taxes.   He responded to Moro's ad with a plea, not a sledgehammer: From His Campaign Website.

I can imagine candidates who might match up well against DeBoer.   A young Democratic attorney--either gender but better if female-- who positioned herself as an energetic example of a better future versus a 65 year old rich white male Republican.   Such a matchup might be summarized as  the future versus the old guy who had his turn and should get out of the way.   The attorney might position herself as the person who buys cars from a dealership versus the person who owns dealerships (and aren't people suspicious of car dealers generally?) saying that she understands what it is to make payments and that she is a far more appropriate representative because she is just like fellow voters: struggling.     It might work as campaign framing.

Or, alternatively, a Democratic candidate of any age who attempted to nationalize the election.   Become more partisan.  Say this is a struggle between Democrats and Trump.   Highlight the least defensible of Trump's statements and say that DeBoer is a Republican, therefore tied to Trump.  Attempt to force DeBoer either to defend Trump or overtly and clearly condemn him.  This puts Republican candidates in a tricky spot because a great many Republican voters thoroughly like Trump and DeBoer might lose credibility as a real Republican if he condemned him.  Hope to confuse and split up Republicans.   Would this work?   It might.   

What does not seem to work is attempting to show DeBoer to be a needy politician who is a puppet of land developers despoiling southern Oregon.

Note:   Coming soon, a blog post on the presidential polls.   Warning to Hillary supporters.  The race is very, very close.  Hillary is behind in Florida and Iowa and Ohio.   Even with all the self destructive things Trump has done.   More later.

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Wait!   There is more:  a podcast on the Presidential Election.   Thad Guyer and I discuss the poll data and whether or not Trump is self destructing. (I think he is, but maybe not enough.)  I assert that he is stepping all over his message.  Thad has strong views on the USC/LA Times poll, which show Trump ahead.   Yes, ahead.   I get angry about Trump's Gettysburg Address. Thad makes the observation that there are some good things to come out of this long, long campaign.      Click Here for the Podcast