Slash and Burn

Anger in Pennsylvania on Saturday

Trump's strength and weakness were both on display in an hour speech he gave in Manheim, Pennsylvania last night.

It helps to understand Trump's appeal if one listens to talk radio and routinely looks at Breitbart.com   Breitbart.com is the semi official news organ of the Trump campaign.   Breitbart and talk radio are populist, not conservative.  More important, they are angry.  They are not courteous, they do not want compromise, they do not respect disagreeing points of view.  

Breitbart.com story

Because they are angry and passionate they are much more exciting to read and listen to than establishment figures like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan.   I repeatedly watched Trump crowds rise up to cheer Trump when he condemned McConnell and Ryan.

I consider the speech in Pennsylvania to be the final "sprint to the finish line" and it reveals that Trump cannot resist undermining his own argument.   He has a strong argument on trade.  It is essentially the same argument Sanders made, so it has widespread political traction.   He says that free global trade is sucking American jobs and sending them to Mexico and Asia and that is why good American jobs are leaving.

It is important to notice what we do not see and hear:  

***Notice that the American Chamber of Commerce is not publicly saying that free markets and free trade is good economics and great for American jobs.   

***Note that Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney are not saying loud and clear that a centerpiece of Republican orthodoxy is free trade and it was a centerpiece for the good reason that it was good for America.   

***Note that the Wall Street Journal is not openly condemning Trump.  Note that business leaders are not defending the free trade environment and saying that it has been essential for great jobs at Boeing and Caterpillar and Nike.   

***Note that the leaders in agriculture are not defending the fact that grain and corn and soybeans are great American exports made possible by free trade.  

***Note that leaders in economics are not explaining that free trade means winners and losers but that net-net American workers are the big winners.

Nor Democrats.  Note, too, that Obama doesn't actively defend it and that Hillary now she mumbles and is unconvincing in saying she now doesn't like what she had previously called "the gold standard."  And, of course, essential votes for Hillary, those that went to Sanders in the primary, are hearing that that NAFTA and the TPP are terrible.

Trump has an open field, a direct run for an electoral touchdown on this issue.  The Pennsylvania speech shows Trump's strength and weakness.   He has an issue that resonates, but he cannot stay on message.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania he has a very plausible electoral victory and Pennsylvania has much of the same "rustbelt" mentality as does Ohio, where Trump is winning.   And Trump hammers away blaming economic problems on bad trade deals, linking it to "crooked Hillary": 

"We’re going to take on the corrupt media,the powerful lobbyists, and the special interests that have stolen your jobs, your factories, your futures, and that’s exactly what’s happened.  And we’re going to stop Hillary Clinton from continuing to raid the industry from your state for her profit.   Hillary Clinton has collected millions of dollars from the same global corporations shipping your jobs and your dreams to other countries.   You know it and everybody else knows it.   That’s why Clinton, if she ever got the chance, would 100% approve Trans Pacific Partnership, a totally disastrous trade deal."

Even Fox calls it "Lashing out"

That is a winning issue for Trump because no one is speaking against it.

However, Trump sabotages himself by adopting the tone of the angriest of talk radio and taking his condemnation of Hillary to point that undermines his credibility and raises the question of Trump temperament.  He doesn't sound reasonable.  He sounds like a radio talk show host hoping to grab an audience by amping up the vitriol.   As the Hillary people put it, he sounds "unhinged."

He calls Hillary a "bloodsucker":    “These bloodsuckers want it to happen,” Trump said. “They’re politicians that are getting taken care of by people that want it to happen. Other countries want it to happen because it’s good for them, but it’s not good for us. So hopefully you’re not going to let it happen. Whatever Hillary’s donors want, they get. They own her."

Then he speculates that maybe/probably Hillary was the adulterer.  “Hillary Clinton’s only loyalty is to her financial contributors and to herself,” Trump said. “I don’t even think she’s loyal to Bill, if you want to know the truth. And really, folks, really: Why should she be, right? Why should she be?”

CNN: Talking adultery rather than trade

This is red meat for ratings.  Trump (of all people) speculates that Hillary cheats--or should cheat--in her marriage.   Anyone who has ever checked out of a grocery line knows full well that a story about some celebrity cheating is way, way more interesting than a story about trade agreements.   Trump knows this, but he cannot resist the temptation of "going tabloid."

The result is the story becomes Trump's tone, and the outrageousness of his speculation on Hillary-adultery, rather than the trade theme where he is uncontested.   Trump got a laugh from the audience when he made  that Hillary-disloyal speculation.  It was Trump the performer, amazing and delighting an audience.  

Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani, who has become a chief attack surrogate, finds himself on CNN needing to talk about adultery, a topic that is at least as big a complication for Giuliani and Trump as for Hillary.  Click Here to Watch Giuliani 

The interview began:  "Donald Trump launched a wild and unsubstantiated attack against Hillary Clinton last night. . . . Mr. Mayor, is that normal stable behavior for a presidential candidate to launch an unsubstantiated attack?"    Giuliani sputters and says it was "sarcastic".  Then he tries to say that Hillary questioned Trump on women, that Hillary was anti-woman, that it was fair. Poor Rudy, a soldier sent out on a tough mission.

The base of pro-Trump/Anti-Hillary voters may have enjoyed this.  Trump's rally audience did.  But the overall effect was to bolster Hillary's message and muddle the Trump message.  Since Hillary has not gotten out a clear positive message on trade she is reduced to saying that even if you sort of agree with Trump, you cannot vote for him because he is too crazy to be president.  And Trump is falling into proving exactly that.
                                                #     #     #     #


October 2 Podcast: The Truths that Hillary and Trump know full well, but must not say

This October 2 podcast talks about the polls, about Trump's self-inflicted wounds, and about the things that Trump and Hillary know full well to be true, but must not admit.   The podcast is a spirited conversation between me and Thad Guyer, an attorney who represents whistleblowing employees, with an international practice.   He watches the election from home base in Saigon.