The "unthinkable" nuclear war: Part Two

I watched this when it was first broadcast on the Ed Sullivan show in 1958.

We had finally gotten a television. 

It was so thrilling!  He kept 13 plates spinning! Just barely.

He ran back and forth. Some tottered, but he got them going again. It is a fun 90 seconds on YouTube, and I recommend it. You might consider it a change of pace from politics. It isn't. 

It is a metaphor of nuclear proliferation.

Medford schools did not have "duck and cover" drills in my childhood and youth. Maybe they presumed we were out of the line of fire. In my first month as a county commissioner in 1981 I visited the county sheriff's office and spoke with Dwayne Franklin, the elected sheriff. I asked what plans for preparedness the county had in the event of a nuclear exchange. Were food, water, or geiger counters stored? Was there a backup communication system in the event the power was off in the radio towers?

He said there was nothing at all. No plans. The plan was to presume that it simply could not happen, so there was no use planning for the impossible. He said he didn't even want the commissioners to discuss creating a budget item for it. Planning for nuclear war would make him look like a kook. He told me to let it drop and not to talk about it.

Yesterday's guest post by Ira Helfand and today's post by Bruce Van Zee bring nuclear war back to mind, a place where prudent people need to keep it. Bruce is a retired physician in Medford and this guest post is a re-publication of his own Substack post from this anniversary week of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 

He makes an important point: President Trump has sent a message to non-nuclear countries that whatever protection they may have thought they had based on a world operating on "rules-based order" with the U.S. acting like a benign world policeman is over. Every country is on its own. Iran will survive because it has a nuclear-weapon equivalent, the ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. If a strategic waterway isn't available to a country, it better acquire a bomb.

That means more plates spinning. That is the metaphor. What could go wrong?  Bruce publishes an insightful blog about politics, health, life, and the human condition three times a week at https://bvzcvz.substack.com.

Guest Post by Bruce Van Zee

Avoiding a Nuclear Armageddon
Nuclear Proliferation is on the Rise

There is much to despair about the many ways Trump’s policies have made America worse than when he took office. From the cost of living (especially gas and groceries), to the loss of America’s respect in the world, to the fragmentation of Pax Americana, to the divisiveness with which he governs – we are a lesser country than we were.

Even more disturbing, we are not as safe. Our military has shown vulnerability in the Iran war of choice which depletes our treasury as we use million-dollar interceptors to shoot down thousand-dollar drones and missiles. A strategic objective to justify this war is lacking and Trump’s erratic prosecution of it makes it less likely, not more, that Iran will give up nuclear ambitions.

But most worrisome is the sense that Donald J. Trump has brought the world closer to the unthinkable possibility of a nuclear apocalypse.

Bear with me, and I dearly hope that I exaggerate, but here are the threads of my concern:

--  First, Trump abolished the JCPOA, Obama’s deal with Iran and with the agreement of even Russia and China, to limit Iranian nuclear enrichment safely below weapons grade uranium. International inspectors agreed Iran was abiding by the terms and was not violating the agreement. He also withdrew the U.S. from the INF treaty that provided safeguards and improved transparency about nuclear capability between rival powers.

--  Secondly, the Iran war only confirmed in Iran’s mind that to protect their country, they would need a nuclear deterrent. So, of course, there has been no substantial progress in negotiating a new agreement to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The MOU was a joke.

--  Thirdly, Trump then makes a very poorly timed deal with Saudi Arabia to offer American help to establish a nuclear energy program. And the agreement inconceivably does not have international inspections built in. Iran and Saudi Arabia are enemies, one Sunni, the other Shia. You can be certain that if Iran thinks Saudi Arabia has any chance of getting a nuke, they will redouble efforts to obtain nuclear weapons themselves. Adding to Iranian paranoia is Trump’s insistence that the deal include Saudi Arabia signing the Abraham accords which would make Israel an ally of the Saudis and would only further Iranian resistance and determination.

--  Fourthly, the leader of the most powerful nation on Earth has openly threatened Iran with annihilation. Trump has made statements such as, “blasting Iran into oblivion”, and “[bomb them] back to the Stone Age’, and “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Statements like these are not only irresponsible but hardly advance a positive dialogue towards peace and an agreement to constrain nuclear materials.

--  Finally, Trump vacillates and has no consistent strategy in his diplomatic and military approach to Iran. Unpredictability is destabilizing and could be a trigger for expansion of hostilities.

In sum, though Trump says his goal with the Iran war of choice is to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons, it is hard to imagine that he could have done anything more to make sure they eventually do.

On top of these concerns is the disappearance of Pax Americana and the abandonment of our allies. I would not be surprised that many of the nations of Europe, Southeast Asia, Japan, and Oceania are having internal discussions about whether they will need a nuclear deterrent in the face of America’s unpredictability and seeming abandonment. Trust that America will always be there for them is rapidly shredding. And the more nations that have nukes, the more risk of an incident that could lead to a nuclear accident or intentional attack.

Trump makes it even worse with his rhetoric and erratic policies. If the policy is “America First” and the implication of “Might Makes Right” means international law takes a back seat, then other nations are likely to follow suit in self-defense. Then there is this juvenile macho, testosterone-fueled ethos out of the Pentagon from Pete Hegseth and his “Department of War” that only adds fuel to the fire. It makes it more likely that a rival nation, perhaps China, Russia, North Korea, would be sufficiently frightened of the aggressiveness and unpredictability of the Trump regime to initiate an attack. Or at least another arms race to prepare for one.

And here’s an awful thought: Trump has proven time and time again that his ego and self-interest are higher priorities than the interests of the nation. And he is easily offended and vengeful. I do not put it past him to use nukes if sufficiently provoked, not as every other president has viewed them – to remain on the shelf as a deterrent because of mutually assured destruction.

It is way past time for responsible Republicans who care more about their country and humanity to exercise some restraint on this President. Trump has shown enough erratic and unbalanced behavior that he should not be allowed anywhere near the nuclear codes. But this Congress has proven to be cowardly and incapable of challenging Trump. And at least some of them know better. For more on the dangers of Trump and Nuclear Proliferation (here).

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