Monday, February 21, 2022

"That dream of hegemony hasn't worked out."

Russia may invade Ukraine.

This isn't just their fight. It is also our fight.

We aren't just interested bystanders. We were involved from the beginning and are still involved. We will impose sanctions on trade and finances and the flow of natural gas.  Americans are imagining the pain we will mete out. We aren't yet imagining what Russia will do to us in return. Of course they will do something. They must. I don't expect missiles, but we have vulnerabilities. Our power grid. The internet. Our currency. Our government. Something. Do we imagine ourselves to be invulnerable?

We are experiencing one of the consequences of the end of the Cold War. We felt triumphant. We were the colossus astride the world. We thought we would be wise to run up the score on Russia. 

Herb Rothschild offers a perspective on the events and American mindset that brought us to this moment. He has been resisting U.S. militarism for decades. A graduate of both Yale and Harvard, Rothschild joined the English Department at LSU in his home state of Louisiana. He promoted civil rights and civil liberties in that state from 1966 through1976. He recently published a book about this decade of struggle for justice,The Bad Old Days. He worked in the Peace Movement in Louisiana, New Jersey, and Texas. He continues that work in retirement in Southern Oregon.


Guest Post by Herbert Rothschild, Jr.



The purpose of demonizing others is to discount their humanity. They can’t feel what we feel, desire what we desire, or fear what we fear. So, there’s no point in even listening to them, much less giving any credence to what they might say. That makes life easy . . . until it doesn’t.

Whatever else one might say about Donald Trump’s foreign policy, he didn’t demonize the leaders of other nations. He seemed to save that for his rivals at home. Nothing came of his meetings with the leader of North Korea, primarily because, once he couldn’t get Kim Jung-Un to unilaterally dismantle his nuclear weapons program, Trump’s dream of the Nobel Peace Prize faded and he had no interest in, or understanding of, long-term diplomacy. For a time there, however, a long-overdue new possibility had opened. Regarding Russia, there was always the suspicion that Putin somehow had Trump by the short and curlies, but during Trump’s term the new Cold War that Hilary Clinton and the U.S. foreign policy establishment had been pleased to initiate was put on pause.

Now, we have returned to the policies, psychology and propaganda that characterized the first Cold War. It’s so comfortable to get back to a time when the U.S. drive for global dominance always had an excuse at hand. Putin is a power-hungry tyrant who won’t play by the rules of the much-vaunted “rules-based order” the U.S. has presided over since the end of WWII, the first (but never acknowledged) rule of which is that only the U.S. gets to invade other nations to attempt “regime change.”

But suppose we were really interested in saving the Ukrainian people from the devastating pain that so many people in other nations suffered when the U.S. and the Soviet Union conducted the hostilities of the first Cold War on their soil. We might, then, try to see the world from the point of view of someone living in Russia who isn’t a demon but a human being.

Hawkish media

We might then see a Western military alliance that didn’t disband when the Eastern military alliance, the Warsaw Pact, disbanded following U.S. assurances to Gorbachev that the West would respect Russia’s security concerns. We might then see NATO take in new members that brought soldiers and weapons ever closer to Russia’s borders, including the 2004 admission of the Baltic Republics, which share Russia’s northwest border. We might note Russia’s repeated protests, and the especially vigorous protests in 2008 when NATO announced an intention to eventually admit Georgia and the Ukraine. And we might note that Russia keeps asking the U.S. and NATO to pledge not to admit Ukraine as a way to resolve the present crisis, and that such a request is repeatedly characterized as a “non-starter” by our negotiators.  

Some people in the U.S. have tried to inject into the current conversation this rather simple principle of diplomacy—trying to see the other side’s point of view and giving them a chance to prove that they aren’t just blowing smoke—but they aren’t getting much of a hearing. Shades of our build-up to the invasion of Iraq. When an administration wants hostilities, the drums of war beat louder and louder.

At the start of the 1990s, we could have built an international order in which every nation’s legitimate interests were acknowledged. But no. The U.S. had become the sole superpower, and we were going to keep it that way. That dream of hegemony hasn’t worked out. We’ve squandered our wealth on fruitless wars, Russia finally has had enough, and China’s growth into a superpower cannot be stopped no matter how many naval task-forces we put into the Pacific. But on the bright side, the military contractors have flourished. 




16 comments:

Ed Cooper said...

The only things missing from this scenario are Dick Cheney pitch another "Curveball" sorce of phony information and Colin Piwell with a vial if talcum powder labeled Anthrax, speechifying to the UN.

Mike said...

Some of us may remember the U.S. reaction when the Soviet Union extended its sphere of influence to Cuba in 1962: too close for comfort. Perhaps Russia now feels the same.

On the other hand, there’s something to be said for all these endless wars. As Mr. Rothschild points out, “the military contractors have flourished.” The U.S. is the world’s biggest exporter of weapons of mass destruction, or mass murder. Maintaining the balance of terror can be very lucrative.

Art Baden said...

The USA’s ability to take the moral high ground is certainly degraded by our adventures in Viet Nam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Chile……. And Herb may indeed be correct that had NATO’s eastern expansion not occurred; had Poland, the Balkans, the Baltic States maintained their independence in a manner similar to Sweden, Austria, Finland, that status quo would have modified Russia and prevented this potential disaster.

But one can also argue that it is only their membership in NATO that is protecting Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland from suffering the same threatening actions now facing The Ukraine. We just don’t know. What we do know is that Putin is an ex-operative of the KGB and that he and his regime openly and brazenly murder their opponents in London, Moscow or wherever they desire. That it is their regime’s policy to fund and protect hackers who blackmail our schools, hospitals, and businesses. Our American arrogance has served us badly; but naïveté does as well.

Rick Millward said...

Strip away all the rhetoric and you are left with a dictator seeking to expand his territory by creating a false crisis. Putin and the oligarch's desire to rebuild the USSR is the root cause. NATO thwarts that ambition. Ukrainian internal politics have also made it vulnerable when they should have joined NATO long ago.

It's not a hopeful scenario, but I think if Putin truly intended to invade he would have done so by now. One question regards whether China is restraining him or not and if the end of the Olympics may be the trigger.

If anything, blame Trump and the Republicans for destabilizing the US, and damaging our standing on the World stage. Trump's love affair with dictators has emboldened Putin and his calculated aggression is a opportunistic response to a West in turmoil as well as a strategy to disrupt the Biden administration efforts to rebuild trust with our allies.

Low Dudgeon said...

Informed historical perspective is crucial here, and Mr. Rothschild has that in spades. But I can't help wondering how much transactional party politics might play into some current analyses of Russia. Admitted in advance: cynicism can be the hobbyhorse of the lazy and the comparatively uninformed.

It isn't long ago that Barack Obama scoffed at Mitt Romney's debate claim that Putin's Russia was America's greatest geopolitical foe. "Mitt, the '80s called. They want their Cold War foreign policy back", he quipped. Then Obama let Russia annex the Crimea, though he did send Ukraine food and pillows.

The legacy media now urges Putin as a nonpareil danger. Surely it's not because Biden desperately needs a diversion? Or rid it start with Trump, concerning whom Mr. Rothschild now speaks of a "suspicion" that he was "somehow" under Putin's thumb? In 2019, he wrote, "Say it: Trump is a Russian agent".

"A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest", goes the lyric. I almost long for the longstanding, consistent ideological certitude of a Pat Buchanan, or even Mr. "Bad America" himself, Noam Chomsky. The worst feeling of all is that the old military-industrial complex is always in charge.

Mc said...

The US isn't really a superpower anymore.

Russia really doesn't need to invade the Ukraine. Russia doesn't need to invade the US either. It had its stooge in the White House 2017-21, now it wants to test a US leader who has the balls to stand up to Putin.

Biden wants to protect the Ukraine, Trump tried to extort it.

Anonymous said...

America may not be the good guy anymore, but Art makes the point that it seems like Russia is still mostly the bad guy. I don’t want war, but firm diplomacy with some consequences seems a reasonable response to the bullying behavior that Russia is engaged in with the Ukraine.

John F said...

Many conflicting things can be true at the same time. Appeasement leading to open borders is welcomed. Unfortunately, history is full of just the opposite reaction, war. I often wonder what form of government Russia might have embraced had George H W Bush won reelection. An opportunity was missed to bring Russia into the world community. Putin has put his stamp and seal on Russia and governance going forward.

Truth One: War is a means to an end when other methods have failed.
Truth Two: In peace or war diplomacy always.

Michael Trigoboff said...

And then there are the Ukrainian people to consider, people who want democracy and are willing to fight to keep it. We might not want to put our military into a direct war with Russia, but I would personally support us sending as many Javelin missiles and other weapons that they need so that if Russia invades they get caught in a quagmire that will make their misadventure in Afghanistan looks like a minor problem by comparison.

Listen to their spirit:
https://youtu.be/N5u6J_mbhLU

Herbert Rothschild said...

I wish to endorse Art's point about the uncertainty of the current situation. We don't know if Putin has been blowing smoke about NATO expansion as a provocation to which is is reacting out of concern for Russia's security. But we can never know if we don't try. If we assume that someone is an enemy, then our behavior inexorably will make that person an enemy. As he said in December at his annual news conference, “Are we deploying missiles near the U.S. border? No, we are not. It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep.” Whatever else may be motivating Putin, what he said is true and we should acknowledge the implications of it.

Michael Trigoboff said...

Comparing the situation with Cuba in the early 1960s to the situation now in eastern Europe is fundamentally wrong. The Soviet Union was stationing nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles 90 miles from us back then. That was unacceptable. What is not known as well is that we were stationing similar missiles close to them. They removed their missiles and we quietly agreed to remove ours.

We are not stationing anything like those missiles near Russia now. The NATO weapons are purely defensive. There are no plans for NATO to invade Russia and NATO has no ability to do that. No one, not even Putin, believes that’s a possibility.

What Putin wants is to reestablish the old Soviet Union. He wants to bring all of the Eastern European countries that have now tasted freedom back under the oppressive grip of Russia. Some people around here advocate sympathy for Russia’s “concerns.’ Given what those concerns actually are, I am not.

John F said...

NATO is a defensive alliance full stop. Member nations training together is necessary for readiness. The pretext Russia is employing by stationing troops in former Warsaw Pact Belarus is a similar claim. The difference between NATO and Putin is that constant violations and aggressive acts on Russia part are multitude. The annexation order issued today by Putin taking Russian speaking areas of Ukraine will be an invasion of a sovereign European nation. If the member nations are attacked there's collective support in retaliation against the aggressor. Finland was able to defend itself from both the Nazis and the Soviets. Thus Finns feel NATO is unnecessary. Currently Ukraine isn't a member but spillover into Poland or the Balkans would trigger a wider conflict across the frontier Putin has defined. History tells us once the shooting starts reversing course is nearly impossible. I remember the sanctions the US leveled against Japan in the 30s when the Japanese occupied Mongolia and we embargoed oil. That action is credited with their attack on Pearl Harbor. but I digress...

Mike said...

Regarding some comments above:

“Barack Obama scoffed at Mitt Romney's debate claim that Putin's Russia was America's greatest geopolitical foe.”
Obama was prescient. Trump turned the U.S. into America’s greatest geopolitical foe.

“Mr. Rothschild now speaks of a "suspicion" that [Trump] was "somehow" under Putin's thumb.”
When asked about Russian election meddling, Trump said in Helsinki: “President Putin says it’s not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be.” If he were the still in the White House, his response to Ukraine would undoubtedly be: “President Putin says Russia isn’t planning to invade Ukraine. I don’t see any reason why it would be.”

“I would personally support us sending as many Javelin missiles and other weapons that they need…”
Helping others fight proxy wars for us increases the body count, but I can’t think of an occasion when it advanced the cause of freedom and democracy.

Michael Trigoboff said...

“I would personally support us sending as many Javelin missiles and other weapons that they need…”
Helping others fight proxy wars for us increases the body count, but I can’t think of an occasion when it advanced the cause of freedom and democracy.


Ukrainians fighting to defend their own democracy and freedom is not a “proxy war.“ They are fighting on their own behalf, not for us.

Mike said...

Ukrainians may be fighting for themselves, but Ukraine has become a proxy war between the West and Russia.

Michael Trigoboff said...

What do you see as the goals of the west in this supposed “proxy war?“ Do you agree or disagree with those goals?