Saturday, July 31, 2021

Time to rethink COVID

We thought we were done with COVID. COVID wasn't done with us.


Democrats need to re-think COVID.  It is everywhere and everyone can spread it.


Scientific journal articles are written to be precise, not easy-reading. But it is in English and a reader can slog through this excerpt from the CDC's Weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report. But don't bother. I translate below.

During July 2021, 469 cases of COVID-19 associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, were identified among Massachusetts residents; vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents was 69%. Approximately three quarters (346; 74%) of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons (those who had completed a 2-dose course of mRNA vaccine [Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna] or had received a single dose of Janssen [Johnson & Johnson] vaccine ≥14 days before exposure). Genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 patients identified the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in 119 (89%) and the Delta AY.3 sublineage in one (1%). Overall, 274 (79%) vaccinated patients with breakthrough infection were symptomatic. Among five COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated; no deaths were reported.  Real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values in specimens from 127 vaccinated persons with breakthrough cases were similar to those from 84 persons who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown.

From:    CDC: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

Let me translate: 

What this says is that vaccinated people do get the highly contagious delta variant of COVID.

What this says is that a small percentage of vaccinated people got sick enough to go to the hospital, but none died.

What this says is that the virus load in vaccinated people was the same as in the unvaccinated.

These three facts brought the study authors to a conclusion expressed plainly: Back to masks. "Science," tells us that vaccinated people going around maskless and living our lives as before, are adding to the epidemic. We spread COVID. We are dangerous to others.

Politically this is worse than no-win for conscientious mayors and governors. It is a thorough disaster. They are not just the messenger of bad news; they are the enforcer of unpopular policies. Fox News and GOP officeholders are in a political sweet-spot, saying people should probably get vaccinated, expressed as the subordinate clause in a sentence that complains about the outrageous tyranny of mask and vaccination mandates pushed by Democrats. 

Democrats in office won't be rewarded for being conscientious. They will be punished for it.

It is time to re-think COVID. More people die from heart disease, cancer, and diabetes than from COVID. We don't outlaw double cheeseburgers with bacon. We don't outlaw cigarettes. We don't outlaw motorcycles. We accept that people will do unsafe things because they are easy and enjoyable and that some unlucky Americans will die because of them. In the case of COVID, it will mostly--not entirely--be people who are already old or sick. Americans can accept that reality; we already have. We want to let people be self-reliant and make their own choices, even if they are unhealthy, dangerous ones.

It is a cold approach.  Accept extra deaths? Do nothing in the face of a known hazard? 

Yes. Exactly that. This is America. Land of the free, home of the brave.

COVID will kill some people this and every year, but now that there is a vaccine, the risks have become "acceptable" within the context of freedom and American culture.  Democratic officeholders are thinking that the news that vaccinated people spread the disease changes things. It doesn't. In an imagined, perfect world of generous, public spirited people, Americans will willingly, eagerly mask up to protect the vulnerable, but COVID is everywhere and everyone spreads it, avoiding COVID is a lost cause. Now it is every person for himself. Some will be unlucky, just like with motorcycles.

Democrats are slow to accept this, to their political peril. They are being led by the medical scientists, the same people who say to lose weight, avoid salt, and exercise. Time for Democrats to let the people lead. There is a line of cars at McDonalds.

8 comments:

Dave said...

The headlines will drive greater compliance with overflowing hospitals of younger patients. Reality will win out. I think it’s pretty clear republicans are the problem with most of it and will get the “credit” as well. In the mean time, mask up people.

Low Dudgeon said...

Even if we ignore the rule against premature extrapolation from outlier events, as the CDC already appears to have done with Barnstable, the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths do not remotely justify a new all-mask shutdown anyway, especially if overall societal utility is finally considered.

Likewise, the losing argument (on the facts) that Republican vaccine intransigence is the problem will not outweigh with moderates and independents the sense that Democrats are compulsive purveyors of collectivist dependence and misery. Democrrats are in big trouble in the 2022 midterms.

Rick Millward said...

Nonsense.

You are tempting fate. This isn't a cheeseburger. It's a highly contagious lethal virus that could mutate to something we can't control.

It needs to be stopped. Stop F***king around.

Mandate vaccinations.

Malcolm said...

Right on, Rick.

Art Baden said...

Me eating cheeseburgers doesn’t endanger you. Me not getting vaccinated and going massless does

Sally said...

Oregon is the only state in the COUNTRY, Mr Millward, that disallows requiring vaccinations even for health care workers.

Start there. Good luck.

The (effectively) public employee union sector at work. As ever, for itself.

Meanwhile, as of today, Oregon announced a huge bonus for all *government* employees who had to work in person.

Some animals are way more equal than others.

Some campaign contributions really pay off.

https://trib.al/YF2XDQi

Malcolm said...

To quote you, Peter, “What this says is that the virus load in vaccinated people was the same as in the unvaccinated.”

That being the case, it seems that, before long, Most everybody will test positive for covid, simply because se they have the virus stuck up their noses. And these viruses don't even have to come from someone with an actual case of covid!

I spoke to a seemingly knowledgeable young woman at CDC's 211 phone number, this morning, explaining my thoughts on this. She agrees, and says she’s already been quarantined four times, for ten days per time, this year. And she was asymptomatic.

So why bother testing anybody, when it appears to be meaningless?

Another issue: it’s now been noted that masks-normal masks-do nothing to stop covid aerosols from infecting us. So why wear masks? Should we wear scuba gear when we go out?

Im with you, Peter; I have little sympathy for adults who die of covid, after refusing vaccinations. I do want to attempt to prevent covid among such folks as the immunocompromised and those who are too young-at this point-to be vaccinated, but even that seems damn near impossible, considering a person can get it indoor’s from someone fifty feet away, supposedly.

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