McConnell's "Scorched Earth" Senate

Mitch McConnell warns Democrats not to end the filibuster:

     "As Senate Republicans wind up back in the saddle, we wouldn't just erase every liberal change that hurt the country, we'd strengthen America with all kinds of conservative policies with zero—zero—input from the other side. How about this—nationwide right-to-work for working Americans, defunding Planned Parenthood and sanctuary cities on day one, a whole new era of domestic energy production, sweeping new protections for conscience and the right to life of the unborn, concealed carry in all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

It is a bad bluff.

Mitch McConnell made two threats. The first was to gum up everything.

That is a worthy threat. It is real.

Abortion Ban

Political parties benefit from their obstruction, so long as Social Security checks get sent on time. The minority looks brave and the majority looks bad at governing. Republicans called Obama "feckless" when he couldn't get things done because the GOP was obstructing him at every step. People got frustrated--at Obama. It isn't logical, but it is the reality of the political and media world of today. 

Public respect for Congress is already in the low teens--less popular than hemorrhoids, traffic jams, and herpes, as Arnold Schwarzenegger joked. Click  Americans expect Congressional disfunction and they will get it. Biden would get the political blame. He didn't unite America.

His other threat is a bluff. Ban abortion, end Planned Parenthood, concealed-carry in DC.

Yeah, right.

If Republicans were to get their wish and pass the legislation McConnell threatens, the GOP would further shrink their support. They would lose 40 states in a presidential race. It would cause further abandonment of the GOP by women and their losses in the suburbs would be so grave they would lose some 350 Congressional Districts. Republicans maintain their popularity precisely because the GOP policy goals McConnell listed are unattained. Like the ten-year-old girl and her wish for a pony, the imagined fun is much, much sweeter than the actuality of cleaning out a stall.

With the benefit of hindsight we see that Ruth Bader Ginsburg may have been correct in her warning that it was a mis-step for abortion rights for Roe v. Wade to have been decided by the courts--as a right of self-determination and autonomy for the woman--rather than through legislation as an agreed-upon consensus of the public. By being decided in the courts, a conflict between rights, the political right formed an equal and opposite right, that of the fertilized egg and fetus to humanity. Right to life.

 In the absence of the filibuster, I do not doubt that a GOP majority could pass national laws outlawing all abortions. A GOP officeholder might be bound by party loyalty and fear of a primary to vote for that.

Abortion rights advocates should oppose that effort. Passage would be cruel, especially to the most vulnerable of women. The unpopularity of the law would likely take some years to play out. In the meantime people would suffer--including prosperous young women in red Bible-Belt states, who would need to schedule unexplained flights to Toronto or Tijuana. Babies would be born to women with no means to care for them. Illegal abortions would be rampant. Some doctors and women would go to prison. Abortions would move underground. Then, it would fall apart under its own weight of unpopular policy. People want what they want and they want to be free. There is a reason abortion drugs and procedures have been around since the beginning of time.

Abortion ban successful in Philippines 

The practically feasible rules regarding abortion are approximately the policies that are in place now. Discrete, legal, and safe abortions are generally available with some effort and inconvenience to the woman, at low cost. It isn't free, nor paid by taxpayers, but it is available to the motivated. It does not please abortion rights advocates, but it generally works. GOP voters think they oppose abortion access, on principle--until they deal with the consequences of the public losing that access.

Do Republicans really think that Americans want a free-for-all of concealed handguns? Again, as a matter of principle, and to keep one's NRA credentials intact, a GOP legislator would likely speak for it and vote for it. But in reality, a gunned-up America with 18-year-old guys packing guns in bars is a prescription for mayhem. Let every citizen demand, as Rep. Lauren Boebert did, the right to walk around screens intended to keep handguns out of the Capitol? I suspect not.

Republicans have prospered politically by being in perennial frustration. The worst thing that could happen to the GOP is to succeed. Democrats should try to stop them-- for the good of America as Republicans would come to see for themselves soon enough--but if they cannot, it is not all bad for Democrats. The politics would assure that the situation would self-correct.